ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

She’s always been safe on the Atlas consensus, and this is very different than 6 years ago. The national environment looks to be far more favorable to Democrats, our political climate is far more polarizing, it’s a presidential year, Susan Collins has gotten a lot of negative media, and her race is being seriously contested

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

Ah yes, I totally thought Shenna Bellows was going to win in 2014.

Yeah, 2014 ME-Sen was a massive upset, perhaps the biggest senate upset in American History

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it's fair to say that at this point, a majoity of people on this forum think Collins will lose her senate race in 2020. However, a lot of this seems to be based of of 2 early polls that showed her narrowly losing, and several controversial vote that have sunk her approval rating. While this election will certainly be closer than it was in 2014, I don't see her loosing for a variety of reasons:

1. She won her previous election with 70% of the vote
2. Some of her disaproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough
3. ME has a large independent swing vote group that allowed Angus King to win by a landsldie in 2018, despite there being another D on the ballot that would split the liberal vote.
4. It's hard to pinpoint the true partisan lean of ME, but it's not all that blue of a state
5. Gideon isn't a great challenger in my opinion because her fundraising hasn't been great, and she doesn't come off as being moderate, and comes off as running as a stunt to unseat Collins, whereas someone like Manchin or Tester in 2018 didn't play national politics, but instead ran on the issues important to their state, and ended up winning, while someone like McCatskill trying ot play national politics lost.
6. Susan Collins can still save herself. She can take another controversial vote in favor of Ds to balance herself more. She can also distance herself from Trump. RCV allows her to run to the center and face little consequence, since tright wingers will still put her above Gideon
7. Susan Collins doesn't have to outperform Trump by much. ME isn't going to Biden by 15 points, sorry.
8. She still has some moderate votes to run on. This is stuff like healthcare, and many older voters may vote Collins-Biden based on healthcare alone.

Idk if it's juts me, but I feel like people are saying Gideon will win just because they want it to be true, when it still seems based upon all available data and what we know about ME, Collins is a clear favorite. Am I missing something?

Should've stuck with this. Ah!!!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

We should have listened to you.

If only I had listened to myself. I got quite a bit right about this race before I got on board that sugar high of good polling numbers. This really was quite the rollercoaster of a race, but hopefully Atlas learned a lesson. Susan Collins saw a huge erosion of support, but we forgot how well she had done in previous elections