ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[WD]

LMAO. Sure, jan

snip

Not sure if you realize this, but the votes of an energized Democratic base which will foam at the mouth no matter what Collins does won’t be enough to beat her. It would be enough in pretty much any other "blue" state, but not in ME.

It’s not like Gideon hasn’t received negative press or only Collins has been subjected to attack ads (especially recently), so not sure why this is so incredibly hard to believe.

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

Who said she was ceding the independent lane to Collins? Since when does Collins have an independent lane as she has stood with Republicans on every vote the past 4 years?

Not really sure I understand the take of "Even an energized Dem base won't give Gideon a win" - there are more registered Democrats in Maine, and Independents have seemed to sour on Collins. What else does Gideon need then?

The few polls that we've gotten have shown that Collins approval rating has soured on all fronts. Collins only raised $3M, Gideon raised $9M.

The national environment is terrible for Republicans right now.

I'm not really sure where this sudden optimism of "Titanim Collins" is coming from, when all evidence that we have, other than a *Republican Internal* that only has Collins at 45%, is not showing a pro-Collins race.

Yeah it’s silly, Maine is still a Lean D state. This race is a Tossup, maybe Tilt D at best but to Claim that Collins is in a good position or is going to win by as much as that internal (LMAO) is just not supported by the facts.

[wbrocks67]

And I'm not saying Gideon has this locked down. She doesn't. But at the very *least* it's tossup. Probably Tilt D.

I mean, the two polls that we've gotten (the only two this year) that were before Trump's standing soured even more, had Gideon winning. So I can't imagine things have gotten *better* for her since then...

[YE]

I no longer think this was much in the bag as I thought it was and I worry that Gideon’s out of state fundraising will be counterproductive and could define her as an insider. But Collins also appears to be suffering the same fate as Dean Heller 2 years ago in a similar relatively blue state. My guess is Collins outruns Trump by 5-6 though more so in ME 02. Still, I’m more bullish on Biden than many in general so I’ll say Gideon narrowly wins.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

Two candidates from Aroostook County? We wouldn't be able to handle all the populist

[S019]

I've been saying all along that this race will be a significantly tougher lift than places like NC and even GA, I'm glad to see that most of this forum is also coming to that realization. Unlike most of the vulnerable incumbents (McSally, Gardner, Purdue, Daines, Ernst), Collins has more than two years of national political exposure outside of the Trump era, and she's built a brand over 20 years. It's going to be hard for Democrats to break that brand, though this will be her closest election ever. The real question for Collins is how many Biden/Collins voters are there out there, and I'm sure that there is a good chunk of them for now, I think they're enough to get her over the hump, my guess today is Collins+1-2 and Biden+5-7. Also I do think Democrats are in trouble long-term in Maine, and as a result, the state will be much closer than people expect, I surely don't expect it to swing as much as TX or IA probably will, and I surely don't think Biden is winning Maine by double digits. Maine will probably be quite a bit to the right of the nation, which will signal, that the state will trend R, as Democrats continue to struggle in the rural Northern part of the state. Had this election been closer, say a Biden NPV lead of around 3 or 4, Trump could have very well had a good shot at Maine. But at this point, he can keep it close, but he can't win. Collins probably still can win, really the only question is how big does Biden's lead have to get for Collins to be required to win an unrealistically large amount of Biden/Collins voters, that answer is not yet clear, and probably won't be clear until Election Day. Given the lack of quality public polling as well as Maine's affinity for ticket splitting, this remains a very tough race to call, and both Democrats and Republicans should not get overconfident about this race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I've been saying all along that this race will be a significantly tougher lift than places like NC and even GA, I'm glad to see that most of this forum is also coming to that realization. Unlike most of the vulnerable incumbents (McSally, Gardner, Purdue, Daines, Ernst), Collins has more than two years of national political exposure outside of the Trump era, and she's built a brand over 20 years. It's going to be hard for Democrats to break that brand, though this will be her closest election ever. The real question for Collins is how many Biden/Collins voters are there out there, and I'm sure that there is a good chunk of them for now, I think they're enough to get her over the hump, my guess today is Collins+1-2 and Biden+5-7. Also I do think Democrats are in trouble long-term in Maine, and as a result, the state will be much closer than people expect, I surely don't expect it to swing as much as TX or IA probably will, and I surely don't think Biden is winning Maine by double digits. Maine will probably be quite a bit to the right of the nation, which will signal, that the state will trend R, as Democrats continue to struggle in the rural Northern part of the state. Had this election been closer, say a Biden NPV lead of around 3 or 4, Trump could have very well had a good shot at Maine. But at this point, he can keep it close, but he can't win. Collins probably still can win, really the only question is how big does Biden's lead have to get for Collins to be required to win an unrealistically large amount of Biden/Collins voters, that answer is not yet clear, and probably won't be clear until Election Day. Given the lack of quality public polling as well as Maine's affinity for ticket splitting, this remains a very tough race to call, and both Democrats and Republicans should not get overconfident about this race.

Yep, this is pretty much what I think too. This race isn't more than a lean in either direction at this point, and even though Biden will probably win ME, Susan Collins has built her brand, and one or two votes won't damage it enough for her to lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate line up isnt gonna flow exactly the way partisan trends. As I stated before Sununu, Baker and Scott have won in NE, due to fact there arent many minorities except for Jersey, PA and NY. Likewise, Jones, Harrison, Gross and Warnock are in minority states and can outperform Cunningham. Bullock and Hickenlooper are Govs and have 60 percent approvals.

But we still have 4 months left

[ProgressiveModerate]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.

Your RCV explanation doesnt really mean much. Both Gideon and Collins can serve to benefit from RCV, the question is who the set of voters in said pool prefer. Which leads to approvals, approvals that show Collins being rather disliked. While you are correct that some of this pool are Republicans, they dont make up that much of the overall group. Any of the public polls will show that.

Collins really doesnt have any tricks up her sleeve, and is being outraised by an astronomical amount. Its not 2014 anymore, and Collins should be a little more than concerned for her reelection.

[WD]

I think most of this is atlas overreacting. The few non-partisan polls we’ve had have shown Gideon narrowly leading, and that was before the political environment got worse for the GOP.
Tossup/Tilt D imo. I don’t understand why people take internals so seriously. Shave off 5-6 points off of Collins numbers and she’s up 39-37 over Gideon, which in a GOP poll is atrocious for an incumbent.

[WD]

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.

Honestly question, why are you so pessimistic? Not being rude or anything, but a honest question. Biden could win the popular vote by 7-9 points. How would the GOP hold maine of all places in that Scenario. Not to mention that her approvals are plummeting. One biased internal doesn’t make Collins the favorite.

Tbh atlas put a little too much stock in polls, and not enough in fundamentals. If a poll showing Gideon up 8 came out, this race would be considered likely D and Collins would be declared DOA

[kph14]

First of all, her approval rating has been very bad for quite a while now. I feel like she has burned to many bridges to the large liberal sections of Maine's electorate. Collins 45% in her own internal is not great either.

Secondly, I don't see her outrun Trump much in ME-1. Neither Portland nor the liberal coastal towns in York County liked many of her votes. Democratic voters here want to get rid of McConnell and his henchmen in the Senate.

Thirdly, Maine is a staunchly pro-choice state, much more than it is a Democratic-leaning state. More SCOTUS appointments seem close and Collins does no longer look like Roe v. Wade is a dealbreaker for her.

Finally, 2016 has shown how strong the Democratic base is in the state. Clinton was a terribly fit for the state and still managed to carry it. Biden, on the other hand, is a good fit and should win the state by at least 10 points helping Gideon across the finish line, even if Collins outperforms a little

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.

Honestly question, why are you so pessimistic? Not being rude or anything, but a honest question. Biden could win the popular vote by 7-9 points. How would the GOP hold maine of all places in that Scenario. Not to mention that her approvals are plummeting. One biased internal doesn’t make Collins the favorite.

Tbh atlas put a little too much stock in polls, and not enough in fundamentals. If a poll showing Gideon up 8 came out, this race would be considered likely D and Collins would be declared DOA

Nah, you're not being rude for asking that; it's important to have civil discussions to understand other people's perspectives. The internal poll only reinstated what I had long suspected; a narrow Collins victory. It certainly is possible that she does lose. Some of her disapproval is from Republcians angry about her votes to save health care and such, but they will still put her before Gideon. This is a senate race in a small state; politics is much more local. Collins has her brand. She can run to the center because of RCV and gain votes from "moderates", while still having the far-right put her above Gideon. She had to be kinda hardcore for a bit in order to win her primary. She has certainly lost a good chunk of her moderate appeal after Kavanaugh and impeachment; but are these 2 votes really enough to lose all of her crossover appeal? No. Polling in ME has been pretty bad so far, so I don't really care about the polls all that much in this senate race. The polls that showed Gideon ahead had a huge number of undecided voters, many of which could break for Collins if she does one major vote to "appease moderates" and bring the undecides heavily to her. She's not stupid, she knows what she's doing. For a while, her best bet was to avoid the national spotlight as much as possible. Now, her job is to become a moderate hero.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

Two candidates from Aroostook County? We wouldn't be able to handle all the populist

According to ourcampaigns, Susan Collins is from Portland, in Cumberland County.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

He isn't yet term-limited but Gideon is. Presumably this is part of why they're launching their candidacies in this order. The other explanation is the DSCC made some moronic triangulation-based analysis of their #candidatequality and let it be known they'd prefer Gideon because she was more "moderate".

[kph14]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

Two candidates from Aroostook County? We wouldn't be able to handle all the populist

According to ourcampaigns, Susan Collins is from Portland, in Cumberland County.

I always thought she is from Presque Isle or Caribou in Aroostook County. Apparently she has a home in Bangor.

https://wgme.com/news/local/police-investigating-possible-threat-against-senator-susan-collins

[kph14]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

Two candidates from Aroostook County? We wouldn't be able to handle all the populist

According to ourcampaigns, Susan Collins is from Portland, in Cumberland County.

I always thought she is from Presque Isle or Caribou in Aroostook County. Apparently she has a home in Bangor.

https://wgme.com/news/local/police-investigating-possible-threat-against-senator-susan-collins

If this home is actually hers she would live 0.2 miles from Stephen King, which is peak Maine

[Zaybay]

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.

Honestly question, why are you so pessimistic? Not being rude or anything, but a honest question. Biden could win the popular vote by 7-9 points. How would the GOP hold maine of all places in that Scenario. Not to mention that her approvals are plummeting. One biased internal doesn’t make Collins the favorite.

Tbh atlas put a little too much stock in polls, and not enough in fundamentals. If a poll showing Gideon up 8 came out, this race would be considered likely D and Collins would be declared DOA

Insert long paragraph here

Lets go through this one step at a time.

Some of her disapproval is from Republcians angry about her votes to save health care and such, but they will still put her before Gideon

This is true, but doesnt include the full picture. Her approval with independents and Democrats is still terrible, even in the few public polls that she's doing relatively well in. Just because some of the dissaprovers are Republicans doesnt mean that her approvals are actually really good once you account for them.

. This is a senate race in a small state; politics is much more local.

This statement is rather meaningless. The same logic could apply to Heitkamp in 2018, or Bacaus in 2014, or Heller in 2018, etc. In fact, this same train of logic also serves to benefit Sarah Gideon.

Collins has her brand.

Your "brand" cant save you when your unpopular.

She can run to the center because of RCV and gain votes from "moderates", while still having the far-right put her above Gideon.

Similarly to the "small state" point, RCV serves to benefit both candidates, especially the candidate that is more liked by the 3rd party pool. Considering how unpopular Collins is, that candidate is Gideon.

She had to be kinda hardcore for a bit in order to win her primary.

She does, and that hardcore-ness doesnt just get forgotten by the electorate nor the Democrats who are making ads and planning attacks.

She has certainly lost a good chunk of her moderate appeal after Kavanaugh and impeachment; but are these 2 votes really enough to lose all of her crossover appeal? No.

This is a highly opinionated statement thats not really backed up by anything. Any pollster will tell you that Collins has suffered from her choices.

Polling in ME has been pretty bad so far, so I don't really care about the polls all that much in this senate race.

So you're throwing out all the public polls because they are "pretty bad", yet you are completely trusting of an internal done by the NRSC, a poll that they didnt even bother to publish the crosstabs or really anything about said poll?

The polls that showed Gideon ahead had a huge number of undecided voters, many of which could break for Collins if she does one major vote to "appease moderates" and bring the undecides heavily to her.

To be quite honest, this is a fantastical statement. We know that said pool of undecided voters dont like Collins in these polls, and yet one major vote will suddenly appease them and cause them to forget about their previous distaste for the incumbent? I wish politics were that simple.



Im going to be quite honest, it sounds as if you're working backwards. Instead of using the data, the fundraising, the presidential polls, etc. to create an opinion about the ME-Senate race, you have the notion that Collins must be doing good/in a very close race that she can win and working from there. Hell, this entire thread has the title "Convince me Susan Collins will lose", and has had poster after poster give reason after reason on this matter, and yet you're still saying almost the exact same message that you opened up this thread with months ago.

Collins technically can win, but a lot needs to change in both her approvals and current environment in Maine for that to happen. She needs to pick-up her fundraising, she needs Trump to not be despised in the state, she needs a lot of work to be done, much of which is out of her control. Its not as simple as "run to the center".

[YE]

RCV is no guarantee to save Collins given how third party candidates usually benefit the right in this state. See ME 2010 Gov and ME 2014 Gov as well as ME-02 last year. Also I have reservations that undecides will break towards Collins given her declining popularity over the last few years. It’s possible Gideon blows it due to overnationalizing the race (though this is a place Clinton of all people won) and/or an unexpected gaffe but this is also the classic case of a once entrenched and moderate incumbent rapidly losing her appeal. We saw this in many Senate races in the Obama and even Bush years in at least fairly hostile territory. To a lesser extent (though his election was never regarded as a shoe in unlike Collins) we saw a similar dip in approval 2 years ago with Dean Heller. As I posted elsewhere, my guess is Gideon edges it out, though it likely won’t be by the 7-10+ points Biden wins by.

[wbrocks67]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.

This is 100% wrong though. The last time Morning Consult did senator polling for Q4 of 2019, her Independents net approval was -10 and Democrats was -48. She lost her crossover appeal.