ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is down by 6 pts in a natl poll, in a poll like that, Collins or even Ernst wont survive

[QAnonKelly]

A lot of the Trumpers are gonna vote for her anyways, because he told them to. Are they going to vote Gideon?

No but they could always just leave senate blank or write in someone else.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of the Trumpers are gonna vote for her anyways, because he told them to. Are they going to vote Gideon?

No but they could always just leave senate blank or write in someone else.

RCV means they can vote both for their favourite pro-Trump independent and support the Republican nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

A lot of the Trumpers are gonna vote for her anyways, because he told them to. Are they going to vote Gideon?

No but they could always just leave senate blank or write in someone else.

RCV means they can vote both for their favourite pro-Trump independent and support the Republican nominee.

That’s true too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If some dont believe Collins is DOA and Ernst and Gardner whom voted to acquit Trump, arent looking at the 6 point spread, with Amash out of race, that Biden is leading Trump

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If some dont believe Collins is DOA and Ernst and Gardner whom voted to acquit Trump, arent looking at the 6 point spread, with Amash out of race, that Biden is leading Trump

I think Gardner is close to DOA, I just need to know who the Dem nominee and the usual house keeping stuff first. Ernst might be toxic, but she will win off Trump's coattails in Iowa. Amash is out, but that doesn't have any impact on the Senate races does it? Collins is in a tougher fight than before but Maine is light blue state, so she can hang on, although I think the race is tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If some dont believe Collins is DOA and Ernst and Gardner whom voted to acquit Trump, arent looking at the 6 point spread, with Amash out of race, that Biden is leading Trump

I think Gardner is close to DOA, I just need to know who the Dem nominee and the usual house keeping stuff first. Ernst might be toxic, but she will win off Trump's coattails in Iowa. Amash is out, but that doesn't have any impact on the Senate races does it? Collins is in a tougher fight than before but Maine is light blue state, so she can hang on, although I think the race is tossup.

Ernst is tied in the PPP polls against Greenfield 43 to 42.and Dems are targeting IA due to our Congressional districts need protection

MT has a Libertarian on ballot, with Amash out, Cooney and Bullock stand a better chance. Just like Tester narrowly won with a Libertarian on ballot in 2018

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/BetsySweetME/status/1265393908554649602
Sunrise Movement Endorses Betsy Sweet
This may seem not that important but as a member of the sunrise movement I gotta say the organization is insanely good they took Brad Sherman primary challenger in my District to from polling around 0-1% to getting 11% after endorsing him 2 weeks before the election really good groundgame which during covid translates to phonebanking and other things I expect Gideon to win the primary still but this really helps Sweet

thank god there is RCV or this would really scare me, but with it I think it turns people out that will still vote for gideon over collins

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/BetsySweetME/status/1265393908554649602
Sunrise Movement Endorses Betsy Sweet
This may seem not that important but as a member of the sunrise movement I gotta say the organization is insanely good they took Brad Sherman primary challenger in my District to from polling around 0-1% to getting 11% after endorsing him 2 weeks before the election really good groundgame which during covid translates to phonebanking and other things I expect Gideon to win the primary still but this really helps Sweet

thank god there is RCV or this would really scare me, but with it I think it turns people out that will still vote for gideon over collins

This. The left-leaning independents on the ballot do worry me, but hopefully they mark Gideon before Collins on their ballots.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/BetsySweetME/status/1265393908554649602
Sunrise Movement Endorses Betsy Sweet
This may seem not that important but as a member of the sunrise movement I gotta say the organization is insanely good they took Brad Sherman primary challenger in my District to from polling around 0-1% to getting 11% after endorsing him 2 weeks before the election really good groundgame which during covid translates to phonebanking and other things I expect Gideon to win the primary still but this really helps Sweet

thank god there is RCV or this would really scare me, but with it I think it turns people out that will still vote for gideon over collins

This. The left-leaning independents on the ballot do worry me, but hopefully they mark Gideon before Collins on their ballots.

Betsy Sweet is running in the Dem primary, not as an indy in the general though.

[wbrocks67]

The fact this article makes a big deal about "Collins' quiet political comeback", while only sourcing an *internal* R poll that has her up +1 is... a joke to put it lightly

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272366620212703239

[The Mikado]

The fact this article makes a big deal about "Collins' quiet political comeback", while only sourcing an *internal* R poll that has her up +1 is... a joke to put it lightly

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272366620212703239

Conducted late April.

[Flyersfan232]

I think it's fair to say that at this point, a majoity of people on this forum think Collins will lose her senate race in 2020. However, a lot of this seems to be based of of 2 early polls that showed her narrowly losing, and several controversial vote that have sunk her approval rating. While this election will certainly be closer than it was in 2014, I don't see her loosing for a variety of reasons:

1. She won her previous election with 70% of the vote
2. Some of her disaproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough
3. ME has a large independent swing vote group that allowed Angus King to win by a landsldie in 2018, despite there being another D on the ballot that would split the liberal vote.
4. It's hard to pinpoint the true partisan lean of ME, but it's not all that blue of a state
5. Gideon isn't a great challenger in my opinion because her fundraising hasn't been great, and she doesn't come off as being moderate, and comes off as running as a stunt to unseat Collins, whereas someone like Manchin or Tester in 2018 didn't play national politics, but instead ran on the issues important to their state, and ended up winning, while someone like McCatskill trying ot play national politics lost.
6. Susan Collins can still save herself. She can take another controversial vote in favor of Ds to balance herself more. She can also distance herself from Trump
7. Susan Collins doesn't have to outperform Trump by much. ME isn't going to Biden by 15 points, sorry.
8. She still has some moderate votes to run on. This is stuff like healthcare, and many older voters may vote Collins-Biden based on healthcare alone.

Idk if it's juts me, but I feel like people are saying Gideon will win just because they want it to be true, when it still seems based upon all available data and what we know about ME, Collins is a clear favorite. Am I missing something?

I just wanted to add that trump can very well win Maine at large and if he is odds are Collins is also winning

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Susan Collins released an internal poll from April showing her up 1 point as a supposedly positive indicator. We know it's not her only internal as she mentioned her favourability moving up 8 points from January, so there's a decent chance there have been several other surveys showing less rosy results (and her internal pollster was likely to skew the result in her favour anyway, as it was the Tarrance Group). The presidential race has leant more Democratic since then, some of that is likely to bleed downballot and while I do expect things to get slightly better for the GOP than they are now, we've no reason to believe that a reversion to the mean is especially likely.

If the Republicans are quietly admitting they're behind in this race, I think the odds are not in her favour.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1048293736042717190?s=20

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1277615761079644162?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush W lobbied her due to fact Kavanaugh was his judge and Barbara Bush had died. The Bushes were very close to Collins they had a home in ME.

[wbrocks67]

Sara Gideon is so good.

Also, it's a crime that there's been no polls of this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lots of time, but its Gideon wins by 1 to 3 points. It's very difficult to poll ME 2, Golden is winning reelection but Collins does well in ME2

[President Johnson]

Sara Gideon is so good.

Also, it's a crime that there's been no polls of this race.

Yeah, she's easily one of the best candidates this cycle, along with Steve Bullock and Mark Kelly. If she actually wins, I think she'd be presidential or vice presidential material in the future.

[Ferguson97]

Collins has worn out her welcome. Biden will help carry Gideon over the finish line.

[wbrocks67]

Collins has worn out her welcome. Biden will help carry Gideon over the finish line.

Giden is a good recruit though.. I don't think she'd have a hard time without Biden. I don't think it's gonna be razor thin, either.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

At this point I want her to lose more than Trump. At least he’s open about being sh!tty.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

At this point I want her to lose more than Trump. At least he’s open about being sh!tty.

She gets memed her for becoming a lot less moderate, but still stopped skinny repeal. Attempting to compromise on new bills with Collins but without McConnell's approval is not a complete waste of time; outside of foreign policy, however, that holds for just about every other Republican Senator bar Murkowski and Romney (and Rand Paul + Mike Lee on civil libertarian issues). 

Really not a fan but better her than, say, Thom Tillis.

[Upstater]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

Collins is such a clown.