ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can see why people consider ME-SEN Lean D at this stage. Personally I don't buy it yet, not enough polls are in showing Gideon with big enough leads.

If I had to come up with a rationale for why this is Leans D, it's is RCV. I feel like that's something that has not been discussed much in the context of this race. It propped up Jared Golden in 2018, and in 2020 there is a Green Party candidate here as well as a handful of independents.

Fair point, that's probably the best reason one might pull out for actually rating it that way.

[Gracile]

There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.

With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.

With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.

Definitely. The poll linked above has her with a positive approval from 20% of Democrats. Although Gideon can feasibly win with Collins' current approval ratings as it stands, Gideon should continue to try to get the Dem approval of Collins to 10% or less. Would make defeating Collins much more manageable in a marginal/leans D state. Because as you said, Republicans who disapprove of Collins will come home (even if it's in second or third rounds in the ranked-choice situation).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.

With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.

Well put. I would note that many have Margeret Chase Smith as a comparison to Collins; but they forget that even she, legendary as she was, was toppled by a liberal Democrat in 1972. So they really didn't think the comparison fully through.

[The Mikado]

There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.

With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.

Well put. I would note that many have Margeret Chase Smith as a comparison to Collins; but they forget that even she, legendary as she was, was toppled by a liberal Democrat in 1972. So they really didn't think the comparison fully through.

There was that joke about Olympia Snowe being like a corrupted, lossy copy of Margaret Chase Smith and Susan Collins being like a corrupted, lossy copy of Olympia Snowe, like putting the same paper through a copy machine a bunch of times.

[ajc0918]

More disappointing and troubling news for Sen. Collins:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1250572551165816832?s=20

[Gass3268]

More disappointing and troubling news for Sen. Collins:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1250572551165816832?s=20

This makes it even more crazy:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1250615907853971456?s=20

[The Dowager Mod]

More disappointing and troubling news for Sen. Collins:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1250572551165816832?s=20

I rarely donate to out of state races, but i sent the max to Gideon.

[Pericles]

Can Collins still drop out to 'spend time with her family'? Maybe she should be seeking a way out from a humiliating defeat.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It might be time to change the race rating from troubled to concerned.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/g67l0f/the_washington_establishment_thinks_it_can_decide/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

This AMA went well /s

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it's fair to say that at this point, a majoity of people on this forum think Collins will lose her senate race in 2020. However, a lot of this seems to be based of of 2 early polls that showed her narrowly losing, and several controversial vote that have sunk her approval rating. While this election will certainly be closer than it was in 2014, I don't see her loosing for a variety of reasons:

1. She won her previous election with 70% of the vote
2. Some of her disaproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough
3. ME has a large independent swing vote group that allowed Angus King to win by a landsldie in 2018, despite there being another D on the ballot that would split the liberal vote.
4. It's hard to pinpoint the true partisan lean of ME, but it's not all that blue of a state
5. Gideon isn't a great challenger in my opinion because her fundraising hasn't been great, and she doesn't come off as being moderate, and comes off as running as a stunt to unseat Collins, whereas someone like Manchin or Tester in 2018 didn't play national politics, but instead ran on the issues important to their state, and ended up winning, while someone like McCatskill trying ot play national politics lost.
6. Susan Collins can still save herself. She can take another controversial vote in favor of Ds to balance herself more. She can also distance herself from Trump. RCV allows her to run to the center and face little consequence, since tright wingers will still put her above Gideon
7. Susan Collins doesn't have to outperform Trump by much. ME isn't going to Biden by 15 points, sorry.
8. She still has some moderate votes to run on. This is stuff like healthcare, and many older voters may vote Collins-Biden based on healthcare alone.

Idk if it's juts me, but I feel like people are saying Gideon will win just because they want it to be true, when it still seems based upon all available data and what we know about ME, Collins is a clear favorite. Am I missing something?

[Lognog]

1. 2014 was a really good year for Republicans and that was when she was seen as an actual independent which, at that time, maybe there was an argument for. After the Kavanuagh vote and other times she bear hugged Trump, she seems to have lost that moderate appeal.

2. that's fair but the approval numbers are following Trump's pretty closely

3. King has always had very strong approval numbers, unlike Collins

4. Maine is more purple than Atlas will say but the senate prez margins will be very close just like 2016

5. Gideon has good fund raising, not mention a massive war chest that was raised a few years ago after the Kavanuagh vote for whoever was challenging her. Collins has been outraised by her.

6. can she save herself? sure. has she shown any indication of bucking Trump in the last two years? not at all.

7. see 4

8. I don't think I've sided with Trump on everything, but I didn't repeal Obamacare is a great message to run on

At the end of the day I think Atlas does underestimate Collins slightly and the overall partisan lean of Maine by a lot, but it clear that Collins (and certainly Trump) is not doing well in Maine.

[Zaybay]

1. And Mark Pylor was such a strong incumbent that the Republicans didnt even bother to challenge him in 2008. Times change, and incumbents can gain a strong brand or have it dashed entirely.

2. This is true. Problem for Collins is the quantity of such voters. From what little info we have, her approval has dropped dramatically with both Democrats and Independents. Interestingly enough, her approval with Rs has actually been on the rise over the course of this campaign cycle, likely due to some of her more conservative position taking, even as her overall approval crumbles.
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/13/politics/poll-mainers-trust-state-government-more-than-feds-on-coronavirus-response/

3. This is a poor interpretation of the 2018 senate race. Angus King was the de-facto Democrat in the race. Zak Ringelstein, the "Democratic" candidate in the race, was much more of a protest candidate than anything else.

4. While we dont know how Democratic Maine will be, we do know that its hard to win a reeelection bid in an unfavorable state with a poor approval rating.

5. While most of this is rather subjective, one cant really fault Gideon when it comes to fundraising.
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/15/politics/sara-gideon-leapfrogs-susan-collins-in-fundraising-ahead-of-2020-us-senate-race/

6. She can try that, but anyone can tell you that its easier to destroy a reputation than to build one up.

7. Thats right, if Maine goes to Biden by, say, 7 points, then she only has to overperform Trump by 7 points. The entire problem for Collins is that she may not be able to do that for reasons already discussed.

8. Refer back to point 6.


I dont think anyone truly believes that the race is in the bag for Gideon, but we're 6 months out from the election and Collins' position looks terrible. She's not DOA, but shes also definately not favored.

[Xing]

I don't think she's at all DOA, but it's pretty clear that she could lose. (I'd rate this race a Toss-Up.) I'll respond to some of the points you've made.

1. Plenty of incumbents have lost competitive races after winning races which weren't seriously contested by wide margins.

2. Maybe, but her approval ratings among Democrats and Independents is WAY down, and unlike some other Republicans who can pretty much just match Trump's vote share to win, she'll very likely need to overperform Trump, possibly by more than a few points to win re-election.

3. Polls have shown Collins losing support among Independents, and ranked choice voting means that she won't be able to benefit from fracturing on the left.

4. It's certainly more of a swing state/light blue state than in was before, but again, if she isn't popular among Democrats/Independents, she's just as vulnerable as any swing state incumbent.

5. The idea that moderates are more electable by nature is overly simplistic, and the people who pedal this talking point do extreme cherry-picking to support it. Gideon doesn't need to be "moderate" to beat Collins any more than Scott needed to be "moderate" to beat Nelson, who voted with Trump more than Collins voted against Trump.

6. Maybe, but she seems more concerned with solidifying support among Republicans than trying to get more crossover appeal. And even if she does change course, a lot of the damage she's done with the Kavanaugh vote and her vote not to convict Trump is probably already done.

7. No, but it could go for Biden by 5-ish or a bit more, so if she's not overperforming him by much, she's definitely in trouble.

8. See point 6.

[Ogre Mage]

2. Some of her disapproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough

I don't see that as sufficient justification for why she is going to win.  Surely you have seen Susan Collins's approval ratings lately.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

Gone are the 2000-2015 days when Susan Collins had approval ratings in the 60s. She won her races easily back then.  You cannot compare the Collins of yesteryear with Collins today.  She has fallen HARD.  A Republican with approval ratings in the high 30s in a state which has consistently voted for Democratic Presidential candidates is, at best, a tossup for reelection.  And that is what the polls show.  She's quite easily tied to Trump now because of the Kavanaugh and impeachment votes.  In the aftermath of the coronavirus debacle her impeachment vote looks even worse.

Gideon's fundraising looks like it is going fine--

AUGUSTA, Maine — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sara Gideon raised $7.1 million during the first quarter of 2020, surpassing Republican Sen. Susan Collins after the incumbent had already set a record for the most fundraising during a Maine campaign.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/15/politics/sara-gideon-leapfrogs-susan-collins-in-fundraising-ahead-of-2020-us-senate-race/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Susan Collins will lose minimum wage in the NE is below 10 and it's the last progressive region that have a low minimum wage. It will cost Collins her reelection

[Galeel]

She's unpopular and in a state that's very likely to vote for Biden

[Non Swing Voter]

she lost her independent card based on her latest senate votes.  the country is very polarized and there's not much split ticket voting.  people aren't dumb, they know she does backroom deals with Mitch McConnell allowing her to vote certain ways now and then but giving the GOP votes when they need it to get to 51. 

Because of all that, very few people will say "I don't like Trump and McConnell but I'll give Collins a chance."  If Trump were in a position to keep Maine close it would be one thing, but she's not going to win when Trump is likely to lose the state by 8 points or so.  Also, with the competitive congressional race, Democrats will be turning out their vote there.  They may lose that seat but it will keep that district closer than the Portland one.  Plus the Democrat has raised a lot of money.  She's just not in a good spot and it doesn't seem to be getting better.

[wbrocks67]

Is Susan Collins trying to lose or

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1256374846726057986

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/g67l0f/the_washington_establishment_thinks_it_can_decide/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

This AMA went well /s

She really is a quack. Insane how she came in third for the gubernatorial primary

[wbrocks67]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

[President Johnson]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

Lmao, this is beyond ridiculous. She's not a moderate, but more of a hack now, doing Trump's and Cocaine Mitch's bidding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is DOA

[QAnonKelly]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.