ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

[One Term Floridian]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Straight up Comstock 2.0 lol

[windjammer]

She will have enough crossovers. And Trump might win Maine after all.

[MT Treasurer]

Hot take here, but I don’t think Northern Virginia and Maine are really comparable.

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Straight up Comstock 2.0 lol

What I meant is that Collins will not lose by 12% like Comstock did. Maine has trended to the right in recent years-which is also why I still believe Collins will win by a Manchin or Tester-esque margin this year. But you are correct when you say that Collins, like Comstock, has stuck with the Administration on matters of critical importance.

[MT Treasurer]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

[Frenchrepublican]

Hot take here, but I don’t think Northern Virginia and Maine are really comparable.

This is Atlas, dude

R trends will reverse while D trends will continue forever

[Frenchrepublican]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Really, you should change your party profile

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Really, you should change your party profile

I've never been a Republican, and it's a long and complicated story as to why I adopted this avatar, as I've explained elsewhere.

[Horsemask]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

This, a million times over.

[Calthrina950]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Collins to lose

[America Needs R'hllor]

Thread: "I can't really be Collins it yet"
Atlas: hold my beer

[President Johnson]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

I think you could be right about the margin, but the raw numbers will most likely be different. Maine traditionally has third party candidates doing much better; so a Collins win would probably more look like 49-44% or 47-45%, or if she loses, 48-47%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

[MaxQue]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

I think you could be right about the margin, but the raw numbers will most likely be different. Maine traditionally has third party candidates doing much better; so a Collins win would probably more look like 49-44% or 47-45%, or if she loses, 48-47%.

Maine now uses IRV.

[Oryxslayer]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

Also add on the fact that the GOP put West Virginia on the back burner in favor of more immediate targets. The Dems consider Maine a top target and the race looks to be the states most expensive ever.

[Calthrina950]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

I'm well aware of that, but what I am telling you is that Collins is as vulnerable as Manchin was last cycle. And she will win by a similar margin as him.

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

Also add on the fact that the GOP put West Virginia on the back burner in favor of more immediate targets. The Dems consider Maine a top target and the race looks to be the states most expensive ever.

This much is true, but it doesn't change the fundamental dynamic which I've been trying to highlight: that Collins, like Manchin, will go from a landslide win in her last election to a narrow victory this time, if she prevails.

[MarkD]

I've been wondering: is it inevitable that Gideon is going to win the Democratic primary? There are others running too, and still more who have expressed an interest in running.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Neffinger/status/1238157835592228864?s=20

[Heir of Camelot]

Her opponent needs to use this as an attack ad when everyone in Maine is stuck in their homes watching TV.

[Fuzzy Bear]

She will have enough crossovers. And Trump might win Maine after all.

Gideon is a top tier candidate; she's Speaker of the ME House.  Collins has been remarkably partisan in ways that matter.  She's benefited over the years from being seen as similar to Olympia Snowe, who was a moderately liberal Republican.  She's not Snowe.  And it's showing now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowe was the saving grace for Collins. Ernst and SMC have pulled Collins into a conservative now, with votes on Kavanaugh and tax cut and on acquittal of Trump. She cant win as a conservative

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Maine is the weirdest state in the country

[MarkD]

Maine is the weirdest state in the country

As Maine goes, so goes the nation.