ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

Doubt that. Republicans tend to be very motivated to gain power at all costs. Collins is better than Gideon in the senate for them, and that's all that matters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

Hmm is she going to stop the Barrett confirmation?  I think at this point, it’s the only thing that could save her.

No, but maybe she'll be vocally opposed enough to regain a bit of ground

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bangor Daily News endorsement
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/07/opinion/editorials/susan-collins-remains-best-choice-for-senate/

Endorsed Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012. Also endorsed Janet Mills in 2018 and independent Eliot Cutler in 2014.

Also Endorsed Angus King in 2012 and 2018 iirc and Collins in 2014

Wonder if King will end up endorsing

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bill Green also endorsed Collins.

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1313487109647462412

Is he a big name up there in ME?

How do you think the race is looking overall?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is he a big name up there in ME?

How do you think the race is looking overall?

He's a well-respected icon. He had a news segment called Bill Green's Maine where he went around the state highlighting different areas. I'm not sure if it will move the needle, but he is very well-known, especially to older folks.

I did get around to watching the last debate and Gideon was better. Her jabs were more effective this time. I also think she's been dominating the ad-race- though I have been seeing more and more ads supporting Collins/attacking Gideon over time. I still think Gideon will struggle in the second district, but my gut is saying Gideon +2 or 3 right now.

To me, it sounds like older people are more likely to be Biden - Collins voters than younger folks in the state. Does this seem accurate?

Interesting to hear what you have to say though. I've only ever been to ME once and I don't remember that, so a lot of my analysis is based off political stereotypes about ME. As on outsider, to me, I think the more local the race stays the better Collins will do, but right now, especially with the current chaos, politics seems very national, which makes it harder for Collins to wield her strength of being an incumbent to her advantage. To me, I'm still keeping it at Lean D, as I see a very wide range of protentional outcomes, but my current guess is Gideon wins by more than most expect because of partisanship, like mid to high single digits

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bill Green also endorsed Collins.

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1313487109647462412

Is he a big name up there in ME?

How do you think the race is looking overall?

I am willing to take half a loaf.  Bet there are a good many voters like him.

I mean, ME is a small state where local politics actually matters. It'll be interesting to see if hatred of Trump is able to carry Gideon over the edge and basically render local politics meaningless.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be hilarious (or hilariously depressing) if Republicans held NC and ME.... and still lost the Senate because of KS/SC/TX (and/or MT/IA).

(Not predicting it will happen, although it’ll be interesting to see whether Republicans fare better in NC or ME)

I feel like in recent weeks the core 4 have become a bit less defined between Cunningham's issue, Democrats having some good poll numbers in KS/SC/TX/MT/GA, ect, and the lack of polls in ME causing Democrats to start worrying again. What's funny is I feel like the less polling a senate race gets, the more pessimistic Democrats are on their chances.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

I don't see how that "automatically makes her better than Gideon."

Well that really troubles me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like when these competitive senate races go through long stretches of little to no polling, people start feeling like Rs chances are improving when they’re really not, and it’s just because polling typically shows good news for Ds (at least this cycle in the senate), but the “hype” from the polls only last a few days before dying off and people freaking out again because they don’t have the reassurance of a poll. IMO her standing has prolly gotten worse recently as the national environment has gotten a few points worse for Trump, Biden’s lead in ME has prolly therefore grown, and now instead of relying on maybe a 6-7 point overperformance, she needs a 10 point over performance, which is a lot harder. Furthermore, the polls suggest KS and MT senate converging with the national environment prolly means this race is also converging to some degree (though I don’t doubt split ticket voting will be higher in ME-Sen than any other senate race), only making her task more difficult. Only thing going for her is her race hasn’t been nationalized as much recently, but I think this race was nationalized enough early on and people still won’t forgive her for Kavanaugh and impeachment to the point where it helps her very little. Lean if not likely D, though RCV might save her we’ll see

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

I was someone who actually thought Collins was favored, but she's missed so many opportunities to try and save herself, and now I feel more confident about this flip than I ever have, oddly enough.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

I was someone who actually thought Collins was favored, but she's missed so many opportunities to try and save herself, and now I feel more confident about this flip than I ever have, oddly enough.

And I don't mean to be rude or flip to anyone, but it's just severely odd that we haven't had *any* good news (tangible, real good news) for Collins aside from some shoddy endorsements no one cares about in a while and suddenly people are all "Collins is gonna win this now!!"

That's Atlas. When Democrats aren't reassured by polls for extended periods of times in a race, they start freaking out. Hopefully we get another high quality ME-SEN poll soon because it's been a little while since we last got one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm surprised Gideon has not announced her $$ fundraising yet. Probably bigger than Greenfield/Cunningham's $28M

She has more than enough money as is, so not gonna freak out if she "only" raises $30 million.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any actual evidence for a #CollinsComeback or is it just people saying "it could happen" on Atlas in a bunch of posts so it becomes conventional wisdom?

When I look through this thread, all I see is anecdotes and retelling of some Collins ads.

Has Susan Collins improved on her poor favorability rating?  No.

Has Susan Collins led Gideon in any polls?  No.

Has Susan Collins fundraising been anything noteworthy?  No.

Have there been any events to change the fundamentals of the race?  No.

So Susan Collins got some endorsements and ran some ads where constituents talked about the nice things she did for them.  Good for her.  That's what every incumbent does.  Blanche Lincoln and Claire McCaskill did the exact same thing and got blown out of the water.

The voters have turned against Susan Collins because she's gained a reputation as a spineless Trump stooge.  Furthermore, she is being outspent by Gideon, who remains a strong candidate.  Unless something major happens to change those fundamentals,  this race will continue to be Likely D and Gideon will continue to lead Collins by 3-7 points.

She's making a come back because my gut feeling says so!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

I actually agree with this. It would prevents parties stalling nominees until they win the senate, and it forces Presidents to nominate someone who senators on the other side would be ok with. Parties aren't going to be keeping seats open forever, especially considering it'll be very hard for either side to get 60 senate seats unless our politics gets a lot less polarizing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both candidates have raised so much money that they are finding it impossible to spend and the people of Maine are getting pissed at how much they are being spammed by ads.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/17/politics/maines-us-senate-race-has-attracted-so-much-money-that-its-hard-to-spend-it/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Maine/comments/jai2mi/can_we_all_agree_political_ads_are_out_of_control/

Collins only raised like $8M

That's still more than is useful in Maine.

Yeah, even though Gideon raised over 3 times as much, it's not like she has 3 times the advantage in ground game; how are you going to burn through that money in ME?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What is with the lack of polling here. This could very well be the tipping point, we're less than 2 weeks from the election, and the last poll was about 3 weeks ago. This doesn't necessarily mean Susan Collin's position has improved,  but it definately increases uncertainty

[ProgressiveModerate]

They probably aren't polling it because Maine is pretty much as safe a state for Biden as the rest of New England and pollsters are more concerned about the presidential race. It's too bad because ME-02 looks competitive on the presidential level and it'd be nice to know where the Senate election stands.

If it is safe Biden and a double digit win, Collins ain’t pulling a rabbit out of the hat. No matter what the polls say.

Have to agree. The only fundamental working in her favor is incumbency which means less and less every day. In 2018, literally every incumbent in a competative underperformed their polls (except for Tester), so I don't see how she's suddenly going to miraculously outperform polls by 7%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

We haven't had a poll from Maine for a while.

I'd like to see a new poll after Collins votes NO on ACB confirmation.
That vote should help her a lot.

I agree, the lack of polling frustrates me.

I think her voting no one ACB is too little too late; most people have already made up their minds about her, and frankly, she hasn't been in the spotlight as much on this as she was for Kavanaugh and Impeachment and likely wont be unless she does a strongly worded descent or is the deciding, and even then, she risks turning off Trump Rs if she's not careful who may just not rank her. Donnelly, McCatskill, and Heitkamp all tried to be Mr. Nice Guys, using their votes with the Presidents in ads during 2018, and that didn't work out so well for them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1320511255757639680

Didn't Susan Collins vote nay though?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1320511255757639680

Didn't Susan Collins vote nay though?

Wait for it. I didn't notice it at first either. Clever tweet.

Oh I misread that lol.