Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

Iowa at -14, Virginia at -6, Arizona at -4.

Seems legit.

Trump's approval in IA has been consistently low and his approval in AZ relatively high.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

Iowa at -14, Virginia at -6, Arizona at -4.

Seems legit.

Trump's approval in IA has been consistently low and his approval in AZ relatively high.

Yeah, IA has to be at least a D+5 trend this time around. Maybe more.

[pbrower2a]

Here come the crayons on the Morning Consult polls of September. This is the last set of polls in the pre-impeachment time. The impeachment begins with even one formal charge.

Net approval for the President

+10 or higher  -10 or higher
+5 to +9%        -5 to -9%
+1 to +4          -1 to -4

exact tie in white

It is at +4 in Arkansas, so that is no misprint... Trump is at +1 in both Dakotas, and -2 in Nebraska. I'm guessing that the trade wars hurt American farmers. Arkansas grows much rice...  

[Gass3268]

Washington Post-Schar Virginia Poll:

39% Approve (26% Strongly)
58% Disapprove (51% Strongly)

Source

[pbrower2a]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

Awful -- absolutely awful for President Trump. Trump won the state by 8% in 2016, and Democrats ended up on the short end of total Congressional votes in 2018. Trump has not protected the coal-mining jobs despite his promise (and what do I expect of a company such as Murray Energy, America's biggest coal company to do when its paper loans are hardly worth the paper on which they are printed except to go belly-up?). Trump promised infrastructure, but that has not turned out well in Ohio. Trump's appeal in Ohio was largely on Ohio, and Ohio is one state that he has left behind.

This is the first statewide poll to appear after revelations of an attempt of the President to corrupt the legal process of another country for political advantage in the 2020 election, and the first to match Democrats against Pence. Pence is apparently a non-solution to GOP problems in maintaining the Presidency in 2020.

This is also the first states poll after disclosure of the attempt to blackmail the president of Ukraine into smearing one of the President's leading Democratic opponents, and this suggests that Trump is going to lose to a Democrat who gets somewhere between 295 and 413 electoral votes.   

Washington Post-Schar Virginia Poll:

39% Approve (26% Strongly)
58% Disapprove (51% Strongly)

[tweet=https://games-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/322256e2-ddff-41e8-b813-6f96a351e381/note/db3bf099-bf95-48d4-91e4-6ac78fbec59e.pdf#page=1]Source[/tweet]

Trump can win without Virginia... but these numbers are hideous. It may be that Trump is just the worst possible match for the state since George McGovern. These are the sort of numbers that one associates with a highly-partisan Republican in Massachusetts in most years or a highly-partisan Democrat in Idaho in most years. This set of approval numbers is simply fecal for the President.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Washington Post-Schar Virginia Poll:

39% Approve (26% Strongly)
58% Disapprove (51% Strongly)

Source

People here are still insistent that Trump won’t lose Virginia by double digits

[lfromnj]

Washington Post-Schar Virginia Poll:

39% Approve (26% Strongly)
58% Disapprove (51% Strongly)

Source

People here are still insistent that Trump won’t lose Virginia by double digits

Using polls an year away is dumb. Similar polls show him down by 10 in Ohio.  Trump will probably lose VA by 8 points if I had to guess.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Washington Post-Schar Virginia Poll:

39% Approve (26% Strongly)
58% Disapprove (51% Strongly)

Source

People here are still insistent that Trump won’t lose Virginia by double digits

Using polls an year away is dumb. Similar polls show him down by 10 in Ohio.  Trump will probably lose VA by 8 points if I had to guess.

They are categorically ruling out the possibility of it, though. And right now, all the evidence we have points to him losing it by double digits

I agree that those Ohio polls won’t age well

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

People here are still insistent that Ohio is Safe R

It is. Feel free to save this post and make fun of me in 13 months if I’m wrong.

[DaWN]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

People here are still insistent that Ohio is Safe R

The Politician Guide to Poll Interpretation

A questionable poll shows Texas close/Democrats in front: Impossible, 2018 was a fluke, Safe R

A questionable poll shows Ohio close/Democrats in front: Absolute gospel, WWC populists clearly flocking back to their true home, election results from less than a year ago don't matter

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perhaps you two should split the difference.

[DaWN]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

People here are still insistent that Ohio is Safe R

The DaWN Guide to Poll Interpretation

A questionable poll shows Ohio close/Democrats in front: Impossible, 2016 trends, racist WWC, Safe R

A questionable poll shows Texas close/Democrats in front: Absolute gospel, suburbs are rapidly trending D, election results from less than a year ago don't matter

(For the record, the Texas ones were almost certainly bullsh!t as well)

[pbrower2a]

I have yet to see good means of distinguishing Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio in deciding the election. These go D after Arizona and Iowa, and these two after the fringe-of-contention Wisconsin and out-of-reach Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those four states hold 78 electoral votes and are the difference between a close election that Trump loses in the Electoral College and an Obama '08-Bill Clinton blowout. Beyond those four is Texas. Beyond Texas, really-strange things are happening.

Trump is not winning any state that he lost in 2016, and at least one such state must be close if others that he needs to hold are close enough for a win through luck.

The assumption of a close election in 2016 essential to most models, including the ones that I used earlier, may no longer be valid. A President can fail badly as did Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons. What may be convenient -- the assumption that most elections will be close and that incumbent Presidents get re-elected because anything else has not happened since 1992 -- may be wrong.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

[BlueSwan]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

Cherry picking much? It's true that they were at the same mark at this very point into their first term, but that was Obamas low point, whereas Trumps numbers have been consistently bad. Obama won because his approval improved from here on. The chances of Trumps approval improving much seem slim.

[pbrower2a]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

The US was still in a recession not of the President's making. Obama had no scandals, and his behavior was in no way erratic.

We have yet to see how Trump's attempt to blackmail the President of Ukraine will hit polling. I saw two polls of states taken since the exposure of that sordid deed, and neither poll (43-51 in Ohio and 39-57 in Virginia) looked good for President Trump. The pattern of the 2008 election in which Obama won some states with Reagan-like margins and lost others with McGovern-like numbers never went away. Obama was always within the range of getting enough support with which to win re-election.

Elected Senators, Governors, and Presidents typically find a loss of 6-7% of approval from the level of electoral support once out of campaign mode and when they are involved in the day-to-day political process. Not everything that one does is popular. One must campaign to get re-elected, and a spirited and competent campaign is good for picking up 6-7% by reminding people why they voted for one the first term. Having approval numbers of 43.5% at the start of campaign season on the average allows one to get re-elected. As approval numbers drop off the chance of getting re-elected drops off precipitously, and as approval numbers rise even into the middle-to-high 40's the chance of losing a re-election bid drops off precipitously.

Obama approval was typically in the mid-40's... add 6-7% to 45%, and one gets his percentage of the vote in 2012. Trump approval has been typically around 40% in recent months, so add 6-7% on the assumption that he will have a competent and spirited campaign... which means that he is in deep trouble. Obama won; he exemplifies the good campaigner. Trump will have to be extraordinary to be effective.         

[Comrade Funk]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

Obama was never behind Romney or any of the other 2012 joke candidates at this stage.

Thank you, next.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

People here are still insistent that Ohio is Safe R

The DaWN Guide to Poll Interpretation

A questionable poll shows Ohio close/Democrats in front: Impossible, 2016 trends, racist WWC, Safe R

A questionable poll shows Texas close/Democrats in front: Absolute gospel, suburbs are rapidly trending D, election results from less than a year ago don't matter

(For the record, the Texas ones were almost certainly bullsh!t as well)

All ten of them? That’d be one hell of a systematic polling error

[DaWN]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

People here are still insistent that Ohio is Safe R

The DaWN Guide to Poll Interpretation

A questionable poll shows Ohio close/Democrats in front: Impossible, 2016 trends, racist WWC, Safe R

A questionable poll shows Texas close/Democrats in front: Absolute gospel, suburbs are rapidly trending D, election results from less than a year ago don't matter

(For the record, the Texas ones were almost certainly bullsh!t as well)

All ten of them? That’d be one hell of a systematic polling error

I don't doubt that TX is competitive and it will definitely vote well to the left of OH, but I'm not sure I buy Dems leading there yet. I could be wrong though (unlike OH, where I'm very confident I'm not)

[HisGrace]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

As others have noted, Obama had much higher approvals to start with so he had more supporters to win back. Trump's approvals have been stuck in the low 40's for a long time because he's alienated everyone outside the basic Republican base.

[pbrower2a]

Addendum: the worst approval numbers of Obama typically hit those of Trump at some point only to rise -- probably showing that the RCP average got an unflattering poll (typically by a pollster who chooses to use only landline phones)... when that poll dropped out of the three-day average, Obama approval rose on the average.

We never saw Obama approvals in the 30's as we occasionally see for Trump.     

[Inmate Trump]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

As others have noted, Obama had much higher approvals to start with so he had more supporters to win back. Trump's approvals have been stuck in the low 40's for a long time because he's alienated everyone outside the basic Republican base.

Exactly.

I'm a perfect example.  I used to vote Republican and up until 2016, I would've continued.  I will never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever vote for Trump.

My dislike of Trump has turned me into a Democrat, at least for the time being.  I will vote for the Dem, no matter who it is at this point, and I'll vote Democratic for the highest office on the ballot to the lowest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

As others have noted, Obama had much higher approvals to start with so he had more supporters to win back. Trump's approvals have been stuck in the low 40's for a long time because he's alienated everyone outside the basic Republican base.

Exactly.

I'm a perfect example.  I used to vote Republican and up until 2016, I would've continued.  I will never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever vote for Trump.

My dislike of Trump has turned me into a Democrat, at least for the time being.  I will vote for the Dem, no matter who it is at this point, and I'll vote Democratic for the highest office on the ballot to the lowest.

Spot on.  I haven't considered myself a Republican for a long time, but I was a centrist independent who voted for the person I considered the best candidate, whether they were R, D, L, or I (sometimes all four on the same ballot!)  But I've also gone over to the Democrats and will vote for them in every last race on the ballot, unless and until the Republican Party regains its decency and sanity.  At present it's a danger to America.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/wisconsin-voters-tariffs-hurting-us-economy

48% Biden
39% Trump

45% Sanders
40% Trump

45% Warren
41% Trump

Trump approval: 44-54

Trump only winning rural areas by 2 points (he won them by 27 in 2016). But muh rural trends!

FoX polls are good and reliable. Trump's Secretary of Agriculture made an unfortunate statement about small farmers (the big corporate farmers are going to wipe you out anyway). Sure, I see the trend in the dairy business in which small-scale dairymen are being marginalized in a new world of factory-like milking...

Should there be a half-way decent Third-Party alternative to Trump, then Trump loses this state by a landslide margin with something like a 50-35-12 split. Without an effective opponent certifiably from the Right side of the political spectrum, President Trump goes down in a landslide in Wisconsin.

Morning Consult statewide polls show Trump faring badly in Iowa, a state similar in demographics to Wisconsin, and in the Dakotas and Nebraska (at least for a conservative Republican. I do not mix other polls with Morning Consult because Morning Consult has a different methodology and the other polls seem more specific. I cannot tell you which polls are more reliable. Others consistently disagree on Virginia.

Trump is not winning Wisconsin in 2020 with a 54% disapproval. If he is up 2% in rural Wisconsin, then he may be on the way to losing in many states that have big agricultural sectors. I don't see the trade wars hitting ranchers as they hit farmers and dairymen... yet. Dairymen are very different from ranchers, and dairy workers (they are like factory workers) are very different from cow-hands in their relationship  with their employers. Note well: even a state like North Dakota or South Dakota is still majority-urban, and the urban areas are rather liberal and Democratic.

But back to the point: Trump is losing Wisconsin, and if he can't win Wisconsin he cannot be re-elected. Wisconsin seems to be the tipping-point state after 2016. 54% disapproval means strong D except under the most freakish circumstances.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

It's basically impossible that Trump is that weak in AR.