Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1166691180500983809?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/b17i8aeg5p/econTabReport.pdf#page301

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 24-27, 1500 adults including 1093 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

Generic D 41 (+1), Trump 35 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Generic D 48 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 37 (-1)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 37 (-1)

At the congressional level, 2020 is going to be an even bigger blowout than 2018.

[Person Man]

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 37 (-1)

At the congressional level, 2020 is going to be an even bigger blowout than 2018.

I can see the house being more elastic still.

[pbrower2a]

WASHINGTON – All of the top Democrats running for president next year appear to hold leads over President Donald Trump in Michigan, according to a new poll that also indicates that as many as 20% of Republicans could be looking to vote for someone else.

In a poll made public Wednesday morning, EPIC-MRA of Lansing said former Vice President Joe Biden had a 51% to 41% lead over Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Michigan, which Trump won in 2016 by a slim margin.

But while Biden's 10-point lead — more than double the 4-percentage-point margin of error in the poll — is the largest lead posted by a Democrat in the poll, Biden isn't the only one with an edge over the sitting Republican president.

EPIC-MRA's poll indicated that the three other top candidates running — U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California — all lead Trump, though by smaller margins.

Completely incompatible with a re-election of Trump depending upon Michigan. The demographics suggest that Trump has lost all credibility among a significant number of his 2016 voters:

And while exit polls showed that Trump beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan 57% to 36% in 2016, this poll indicated that 56% of whites either plan to cast a vote for someone else (43%) or are considering voting for another candidate (13%). Ninety-five percent of black voters, meanwhile, are looking at some other candidate.

Also:

Underscoring that sentiment is widespread disapproval of Trump in Michigan: In metro Detroit, 68% said they would vote for someone else or consider doing so. In the outer suburbs, including Livingston and Washtenaw counties, the percentage was even higher — 73%.

That's not so surprising for the city that includes the giant University of Michigan (which went 68-27 for Clinton).. but Livingston County, usually reliable for Republicans, went 62-23 for Trump. Livingston County includes suburban fringe of both Detroit and Lansing. I have been there, and I-96, which is lightly-traveled west of Lansing, is heavily-traveled in Livingston County.If Trump loses Livingston County, then he is in deep trouble in Michigan... and who knows where else.

It's not approval and disapproval, but one does not get results like this as an incumbent if one has even mediocre levels of approval. It does not change a map that shows Trump having horrid numbers for approval and disapproval in Michigan and gives nobody any cause to expect such.

Trump is going to lose where the traffic snarls are, and it won't be on issues of transportation. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 23-25, 1987 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

(following questions not asked last week)

Definitely vote for Trump 29
Probably vote for Trump 9
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 48

GCB: D 45, R 37

[The Mikado]

It's funny to me how the number of Republican posters in this thread goes up and down along with Trump's approval ratings. Now that he's at a 3 month low in the RCP average, not a peep.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1166691180500983809?s=20

This is probably the most significant change in the 2020 election dynamic if this holds. Trump's rationale for reelection boils solely down to the economy. If you take that away, he really has nothing else. Except muh judges or something

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1166691180500983809?s=20

This is probably the most significant change in the 2020 election dynamic if this holds. Trump's rationale for reelection boils solely down to the economy. If you take that away, he really has nothing else. Except muh judges or something

The only options left for him will be SOCIALISM *ominous rocking chair creak* and IMMIGRANTS!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker (weekly), Aug. 26-27, 1500 adults including 961 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

[Person Man]

Maybe this hurricane will cause the 40-43rd%tile voter to rally behind the president again. DeSantis is a vassal of the Trump bureaucracy and they will do everything to turn this into an opportunity to look like effective and moderate "compassionate conservatives". Obama paved the way with hugging Christie during Sandy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

[Person Man]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

You can win the house but you can’t win the senate or the presidency without them yet.

[Progressive Pessimist]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

You can win the house but you can’t win the senate or the presidency without them yet.

That's why I hate the state so much.

[Badger]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

I did not realize that 2012 was a democratic landslide.

[pbrower2a]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

I did not realize that 2012 was a democratic landslide.

It would have been close in the Electoral College (303-255) without Florida, and Florida was really close.

...although the mean result in the count of the EC vote for a winning President is close to what Obama got as a percentage, his 2012 election was the only one since at least 1900 in which the winning nominee got anywhere between 57% and 65% of the electoral vote. Kennedy got 56.4% of the electoral vote in 1980 and Taft got 66.5% of the electoral vote in 1908, with only Obama in 2012 getting anything in between (61.7%)

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1168291326892412928

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1168291326892412928

My strategy would be to try to make Trump look inevitable if by this time next year, he’s at least even in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina and only behind by like 2 or 3 in any freiwall state. The Democratic narrative should be that we need Democrats in the house as a check on Trump. If he’s even in Michigan, up 2 or 3 in Florida, it becomes a duh issue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1168291326892412928

On a related note:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1168172735857647616

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1168291326892412928

It was D+2. but Hillary Clinton won the popular vote nationwide because she ran up the popular vote totals in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and the like -- states that had no chance of ever going R in a Presidential election. Winning those states 70-30 means no more than winning them 53-47. Trump succeeded by winning the "right votes".

Still, Trump won the Electoral College by very bare margins in three states... we know the story... and an even shift of 1% from 2016 to D+3 flips Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We did Have a President who got elected by a tiny margin in one state  (Dubya) and won the Electoral College by winning one state by a bare margin while losing the national popular vote. This said, there were several states close in 2000 that were also close in 2004, and three of those states shifted (IA, NH, and NM).  

States decided by 6% or less in 2000 were, with 2004 margins following:


AR 5.44   9.76
TN 3.86   14.30
NV 3.55   2.76
OH 3.51  2.11
MO 3.34  7.20
NH 1.27  1.37
FL  0.01  5.01
NM 0.06  0.79
WI 0.22  0.38
IA 0.31   0.67
OR 0.44  4.16
MN 2.40  3.48
PA 4.17  2.50
ME 5.11  9.00
MI 5.13  3.42
WA 5.58  7.17

To be sure, Kerry was a far weaker candidate than Gore. Dubya was widely seen as a far-below-average President. It is not simply that the states of the Deep and Middle South went more decisively against him and the Democratic Party; Kerry fared worse, in general, in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. It's not simply that Kerry was a bad match for the South, which, except for Florida, would have made no difference. Kerry lost Iowa and New Mexico, states that Gore won barely, and gained only New Hampshire (probably because Ralph Nader didn't play as much of a role in 2004). Kerry gained a little in Ohio while investing much time there... which proved a political disaster. Kerry did gain some in Colorado to put it in contention (where he still lost). Kerry had to win either Florida or Ohio in 2004 to win the Presidency, and he could win neither.

OK, it is possible to imagine three states flipping in the Presidential race of 2020 from 2016 -- MI and PA going D and MN or NH going R -- if one accepts a random swing of close states in somewhat-similar elections. Polling suggests that if three states are most likely to flip, that those go from R to D -- MI, PA, and one of AZ and WI. Trump is not keeping his bare wins close in polling, so he has little room for loss.

If Dubya was then seen as below average by most historians of the time, then Trump is a disaster as President. His every-man-for-himself ethos has never been good for leading any country through any economic, diplomatic, or military calamity... and such an ethos usually leads to calamity. If Presidents like Pierce, Fillmore, Buchanan, A.Johnson, Harding, and Coolidge (Nixon strictly on morals) leave room for debate on who could be even worse than Dubya, Trump is always close to 44th of 44 (if one counts Cleveland twice).

Trump has enriched elites who usually open the spigots for the fuel of elections (campaign funds) and hurt people who never showed any support of him. To be sure, his supporters are fanatical -- and often sadistic. One Trump bumper sticker that I saw said "Trump 2020 -- make liberals cry again". When the appeal is heavily Schadenfreude against the Other Side and not legitimate achievements or policy change other than to facilitate the gain of economic elites, one creates much desire on the other side where it matters most: marginal voters.

Dubya won in 2004 because the damage to the Presidency that he inflicted in a bungled war and a corrupt speculative boom had yet to become obvious. With Trump, the achievements are practically nil and the damage is obvious. Anyone on the center-left on any issue is aghast about what America is becoming under Trump. He can be hit from the Right on foreign policy. His personal life and business legacy are both sordid in the extreme.

Statewide polls show this.  Of course it is possible for a President to get re-elected while faring a little worse just about everywhere as FDR did in 1940 and 1944, and Obama did in 2012. Bur FDR and Obama showed that they were crafty, competent politicians anyway... and they could lose a little from the previous election and still win. Trump has no such leeway. Comparing him to FDR or even to Obama is absurd.

Should Trump lose as much in the popular vote as Obama did in an even shift, then he loses. Even shifts are most relevant to the 'closest' states. At this point I can see Trump getting results ranging from a bare loss to a landslide loss because he has done nothing to win over a large number of voters. If one thinks Obama a fairly-effective President, he lost 1.85% in support from 2012 to 2016. There is no way that Trump can win re-election while losing that much support. So what if his supporters are fanatical -- so are people on the other side!

He is not keeping the states that he barely lost in 2016 close. The killer for him in 2020 is his disapproval numbers. Except in Indiana, did you ever see Obama disapproval ratings in the mid-50's in states that he barely won or barely lost during the years 2010, 2011, and 2012? Trump really needs one of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin or the combination Maine-Nevada-New Hampshire to win re-election.  

Before anyone says "but 2016" -- not one vote from 2016 counts in the 2020 election. Trump must cheat to win, and I concede that America has enough true believers in the "every-man-for-himself" ethos who care only about tax cuts, regulatory relief, and a share in Trump graft who can give his campaign a huge infusion of campaign funds. The American economic elite is grossly amoral and myopic. But that will not be enough to get Trump re-elected. People who have already concluded that he is unspeakably awful demonstrate such in high levels of disapproval and especially strong disapproval. It is possible to win over the undecided, but practically impossible to win over those who disapprove. When over 52% of the American public disapproves, there is just not much room for a Trump victory in 2020.

OK, Trump supporters say -- the Democrats can nominate a real turkey as a candidate. The problem is that Donald Trump is practically assured of winning a nomination in 2020, and he is already a catastrophic failure as President.        

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1168832496534020097

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1168832496534020097

If the basis of predicting the 2020 is the (midterm) House election of 2018, then Trump loses not only what he lost in 2016 while flipping no states in his favor, but also losing AZ, IA, MI, PA, WI, and ME-02. Because the count did not include uncontested seats, there is some ambiguity about Florida.

296-242 or 325-233 for the Democratic nominee in 2020 alone. .

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Aug. 22-30, 903 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

The erosion in the Trump approval rating comes as Americans registered greater disapproval of the escalating China trade war. The public still gives Trump's handling of the economy positive marks, but somewhat less so.
...
Trump's net approval rating on his handling of the economy shrank to +7 points (46% approve; 39% disapprove). That's down from +10 points in August (46%-36%) and +15 points in July (48%-33%).

Over the same time, views of Trump's handling of trade with China have gone from neutral to increasingly negative. Trump's net approval went from flat in July (42%-42%) to -4 points in August (40% approval; 44% disapproval) to -10 points in September (39%-49%).

[Progressive Pessimist]

IBD/TIPP, Aug. 22-30, 903 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

The erosion in the Trump approval rating comes as Americans registered greater disapproval of the escalating China trade war. The public still gives Trump's handling of the economy positive marks, but somewhat less so.
...
Trump's net approval rating on his handling of the economy shrank to +7 points (46% approve; 39% disapprove). That's down from +10 points in August (46%-36%) and +15 points in July (48%-33%).

Over the same time, views of Trump's handling of trade with China have gone from neutral to increasingly negative. Trump's net approval went from flat in July (42%-42%) to -4 points in August (40% approval; 44% disapproval) to -10 points in September (39%-49%).

We're sleeping in a bed we made of electing Trump as President. Concurrently, he is sleeping in a bed he made of his incompetence as President.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 1-3, 1500 adults including 1069 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

Generic D 40 (-1), Trump 37 (+2)

RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Generic D 46 (-2), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-2), R 41 (+4)

The changes are at least in part due to a significant difference in party ID.

Last week: D 36, R 25, I 40
This week: D 32, R 28, I 41