Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

That is a huge swing in disapproval.  This is by a magazine for investors and people in business. I can imagine these numbers for some ultra-liberal who offends conservative sensibilities, but with this sort of number, the disapproval is already appearing among conservatives for a right-wing President. To be sure this is a poll of the general public, but at this point even the usual support by investors and business owners for President Trump is likely getting tepid. Such could imply weak fund-raising numbers for Republicans and Republican interests.


 

[ProudModerate2]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

Wow. Huge swing.
And 538 rates this polling company with an A- grade.

[Person Man]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

Wow. Huge swing.
And 538 rates this polling company with an A- grade.

I don’t think this means anything except that last sample might have oversampled Moderate Republicans who notoriously don’t have an opinion. 40% is still OK for Trump. Not good but OK. I mean, at this rate he will win if Democrats run a bad campaign and the economy remains propped up. What this does mean is that beyond a complete cataclysm, the House for Republicans  is gone until the next Democratic or non right of center administration.

[pbrower2a]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

What preceded was 43-49, which isn't particularly good, but it suggested that if he played his cards right, the President had a chance to win. 40-56 means that he folds unless he is desperate -- basically he wins or loses everything in life. 45% of the electorate at the least is liberal and 45% at the least is conservative. No more than 10% of the electorate is swing voters. Trump has lost those, and he is now losing some conservative vote.

The President has done some rotten stuff that just might stick this time.

President Trump cannot win with 44% of the popular vote (100-DIS, an obvious ceiling) unless the left side of the political spectrum splinters. It is more likely that the President get opposition from the more traditional Right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, July 15-31, 3038 adults (prior poll July 1-12)

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

++++++

Gallup, July 15-31, 3038 adults (prior poll July 1-12)

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

That's a horrid number for disapproval.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

++++++

Gallup, July 15-31, 3038 adults (prior poll July 1-12)

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

That's a horrid number for disapproval.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump's net approval is back to being -10 for the first time since June 1st on RCP's aggregate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult: net approval, July 2019

Net approval for Trump

+10 or higher
+5 to +9
+2 to +4
+1 to -1 (white)
-2 to -4
-5 to -9
-10 or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), July 18-28, 1700 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 47

Biden 49
Trump 41
Amash 7

Warren 49
Trump 43
Amash 4

Generic D 46
Trump 42
Amash 7

[pbrower2a]

Figuring that Justin Amash is a potential conservative small-government alternative to big-government right-winger Donald Trump, I see a suggestion that he would hurt Trump as an independent or third-party candidate.

"Strong disapproval" is close to 50%, and I cannot imagine that for any President then seeking re-election since at least Jimmy Carter. "Strong disapproval" is also higher than total approval, as if that is unusual anymore.   

[Person Man]

Figuring that Justin Amash is a potential conservative small-government alternative to big-government right-winger Donald Trump, I see a suggestion that he would hurt Trump as an independent or third-party candidate.

"Strong disapproval" is close to 50%, and I cannot imagine that for any President then seeking re-election since at least Jimmy Carter. "Strong disapproval" is also higher than total approval, as if that is unusual anymore.   

Maybe he would still just wins because enough people stay home because Democrats run a really bad campaign like they did in 2016 and 1988. I think that 2000 and 2004 swung the way did just because Bush ran a really good campaign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 3-6, 1500 adults including 1161 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Generic D 41 (-1), Trump 36 (+3)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 39 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (+1)

Last week's poll was really terrible for Trump compared to the previous one, so I think this movement is mostly reversion to the mean.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 3-6, 1500 adults including 1161 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Generic D 41 (-1), Trump 36 (+3)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 39 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (+1)

He actually improved after 3 very recent mass shootings by his supporters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 3-6, 1500 adults including 1161 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Generic D 41 (-1), Trump 36 (+3)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 39 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (+1)

He actually improved after 3 very recent mass shootings by his supporters?

As I indicated in the original post, last week's poll looks like an outlier.

[GP270watch]

 Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

People who only get their news from Fox News, InfoWars, One America News, or their local Sinclair-controlled TV station, and never hear any negative information about him.

[President Johnson]

New York doesn't like Trump, but AOC is also not very much liked. They're not polled in this survey, but satisfying Andrew Cuomo and Chuck Schumer are more popular.

https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/1159056681101385728

[Hammy]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

People who only get their news from Fox News, InfoWars, One America News, or their local Sinclair-controlled TV station, and never hear any negative information about him.

More likely it's people who continue to support him 100% through this but simply stop admitting it publicly for a few weeks

[Person Man]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

People who only get their news from Fox News, InfoWars, One America News, or their local Sinclair-controlled TV station, and never hear any negative information about him.

More likely it's people who continue to support him 100% through this but simply stop admitting it publicly for a few weeks

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 5-7, 1960 RV (prior poll June 29-July 1)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

I'm not sure what's up with Morning Consult lately.  They used to post a weekly tracker of RVs, but this is the first one I've seen in a while.  However, they have been posting a bunch of (rather noisy) polls of adults.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 5-7, 1960 RV (prior poll June 29-July 1)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

I'm not sure what's up with Morning Consult lately.  They used to post a weekly tracker of RVs, but this is the first one I've seen in a while.  However, they have been posting a bunch of (rather noisy) polls of adults.

I can believe that as long as its still easy to get or keep a job, that 40-42% will be there. The main difference is that Trump's "populist" mix of extreme right wing social policies and "radical center" economics and his unwillingness to do anything but use the failure of his policies as a chance grandstand will cause those who don't have a strong opinion about him to start disapproving of him more. Maybe the only reason he ever got down to the mid to high 30s was because of the delays he encountered in attempting to deliver traditional republican policies. Once those delays were smoothed over, he improved to the 41-43 range because he had "improved" for many voters. What will probably happen is that in periods where his more unusual policies are papered over, many who disprove will stop having opinions and there will be some centrists who will give the devil his due because they got a promotion at work last year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New York doesn't like Trump, but AOC is also not very much liked. They're not polled in this survey, but satisfying Andrew Cuomo and Chuck Schumer are more popular.

https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/1159056681101385728

Ocasio-Cortez is still too obscure for that to be a fair comparison.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1159155296666816513?s=20

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

Semi deplorables.