Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

You mean the January during which the government was shut down and Trump's approval rating cratered?

And every crash is "Fake News". Its really hard whether they want Trump because they think he is easier to control or whether they are both just very chauvinist.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump's approval has been on the rise, just as I predicted it would when the Democrat Party snatched control of the House from the Paul 'lyin' Ryan GOP ...

... Trump could very well be at 50% approval on election day ...

But yet his approvals are dropping like a rock.
LOL.

[ProudModerate2]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131152788770181121

Who is that fit man, with a normal waistline suppose to be?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, May 17-19, 1995 RV

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Vote to relect Trump or for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 9 (-1)
Probably someone else 6 (-1)
Deinitely someone else 49 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 18-21, 1500 adults including 1113 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

2020: Generic D 40 (-3), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

2020: Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 38 (+1)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Who is that fit man, with a normal waistline suppose to be?

Putin?

[Person Man]

Who is that fit man, with a normal waistline suppose to be?

Putin?

Trump Suit Putin! Beets....in water!

[HisGrace]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, May 17-19, 1995 RV

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Vote to relect Trump or for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 9 (-1)
Probably someone else 6 (-1)
Deinitely someone else 49 (+1)

Those reelection numbers are horrendous, but it seems like his approval rating would be lower in the poll if that were the case which makes me a bit skeptical.

[OneJ]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131152788770181121

idk how a net disapproval of 11 is trumpmentum but ok

Weird flex, but ok.

[pbrower2a]

Whoops! Instead of renovating an old post and showing it as a new post, I simply modified the old post. The state in question has the second-largest number of electoral votes,  so I re-post the poll here.
 
Texas. Emerson.

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/2020-texas-biden-and-beto-in-dead-heat-in-democratic-primary

Note the huge margin of error. That reflects Texas itself due to huge regional differences and the obvious reality that the state has not usually in play politically in any statewide races.

A 13% support for Bill Weld in Texas indicates potential trouble for the President not in getting re-nominated for President, but instead that dissent already is forming within the Republican Party and among conservatives. Weld has no particular ties to Texas, so should Trump approval stay around 45% in Texas, then the state could easily go 47% D, 45% T, and 8% C: "D" for the Democratic nominee, "T" for Trump, and "C" for some conservative third-party or independent alternative.

Texas, as if I need repeat myself, looks to be straddling the 400-EV line for any Democratic nominee for President as it has since the late 1980s.   

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

[BlueSwan]

Shocked there for a moment, until I saw that it was Texas numbers.

[pbrower2a]

That those are Texas numbers is the real shock. They show one of two things:

(1) that Texas is rapidly moving to the Left with respect to America as a whole (which I do not see),
(2) a Presidency in disarray (which I see).

OK, Texas demographics (quickly-growing Hispanic, especially Mexican-American minority; improving educational standards; people moving out of "Blue" states and taking their politics with them -- see also Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada) could cause Texas to drift some. 

The heyday of Republicans winning all statewide races is over. Republicans have done all that they could to  reshape the political culture of Texas, but there is only so far that one can go.

Texas has been a clean-government state for a long time -- from when Democrats were dominant. Trump is monstrously corrupt, and that is inconsistent with Texas values.  A corrupt federal government in disarray? Texans dislike that.

[ProudModerate2]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

Me too because the instant that state is called for them, they won the election and are sure to scare the piss out of the GOP. I don't think it will happen though. We can't have nice things like this in our world, it seems.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

Imagine if Trump wins OH by 10, while losing TX by 1.

[Person Man]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

Imagine if Trump wins OH by 10, while losing TX by 1.

I could see that happening as early as the 2020s but If it happens it will most likely happen closer to mid century.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave election, the Dems don't have to outright win TX, they have to play the expectations game, and come close enough, so that statewide Dems in the close Senate races: AZ, GA, NC, and TX, deep red states, come close enough to flip the Senate back to the Dems.

With a 304-234, victory map, certain red state senate races can flip.

[Person Man]

In a wave election, the Dems don't have to outright win TX, they have to play the expectations game, and come close enough, so that statewide Dems in the close Senate races: AZ, GA, NC, and TX, deep red states, come close enough to flip the Senate back to the Dems.

With a 304-234, victory map, certain red state senate races can flip.

Democrats don't win close elections. Its going to be a bloodbath when they win whether its 2020 or 2022 or 2024 or heaven forbid 2026 and 2028.

[pbrower2a]

In a wave election, the Dems don't have to outright win TX, they have to play the expectations game, and come close enough, so that statewide Dems in the close Senate races: AZ, GA, NC, and TX, deep red states, come close enough to flip the Senate back to the Dems.

With a 304-234, victory map, certain red state senate races can flip.

Democrats don't win close elections. Its going to be a bloodbath when they win whether its 2020 or 2022 or 2024 or heaven forbid 2026 and 2028.

Republicans have had more success in close elections for President because they trcognize that the States elect the President, and the People do not. Republicans succeed by winning the right votes and discouraging the 'wrong' ones from voting. So it was with Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, and so it is today.

2012 was 'close to being close'; Obama would have barely won the Electoral College had Florida gone to Mitt Romney. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 26-28, 1500 adults including 1114 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

2020: Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 36 (+2)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

2020: Generic D 49 (+1), Trump 39 (+1)

GCB: D 48, R 39 (no prior)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, May 22-26, 800 adults (change from March)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, May 22-26, 800 adults (change from March)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Also >>>

Meanwhile 48% of the public approves of the job the president is doing handling the economy, with 43% disapproving, largely unchanged from last quarter. But that’s not the case for views on how the President handles trade negotiations with other countries, where 37% approve and 43% disapprove, and 16% offer no opinion.

The numbers are worse for the president’s border security and immigration policies, with 37% approving and 50% disapproving. They are about as bad again for President Trump’s handling of the U.S. relationship with China, with just 32% approving and 45% disapproving.

[Person Man]

At this rate, once the economy finally gives out, the entire Republican party is a lame duck until people start complaining that the recovery is taking too long.

[OneJ]

Critical Insights - Maine (RV):

Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 58%

That’s terrible although this poll might be Dem-friendly. He better hope he doesn’t perform this poorly on Election Day.