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Continential
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« on: April 13, 2019, 06:28:08 AM »


Election Analysis: CNN

The wins for Huckabee & Obama last night are huge, what does it mean for the direction of both parties?

With respect to Obama's win, it certainly means the Democratic Party is moving more towards the anti-establishment left. With New Hampshire coming up, Hillary Clinton does not look like the favorite there. If she suffers two massive blows in both of the first contests, her campaign may be over before it began. Secretary Clinton will have to capsize a comeback of her own to make this primary competitive again.

And the Republicans?

Unlike Obama, Huckabee doesn't look favored at all in New Hampshire, but his win tonight does indeed come as a shock and puts his candidacy from long-shot status to a serious contender. A win in South Carolina would certainly catapult him to the front-runner, but he'll have to suffer a blow in New Hampshire before-so. Governor Huckabee, the social conservative candidate, would pull the GOP's status as a more moderate party on social issues, though his more moderate stance on economic issues aligns him slightly to the left of President Bush.

And how would these two square up in a general election?

Senator Obama seems to lead in all swing states in hypothetical polls, with exceptions in Missouri and North Carolina. Mike Huckabee would certainly turn out evangelicals and other religious voters in droves whilst improving Republican margins in the south. Huckabee's alignment with civil rights and religious African-American organizations might cut slightly into Obama's appeal to southern African-Americans should he be the nominee, but it's no doubt Barack Obama would carry African-Americans by a wide margin in a general.

And what are the chances for McCain & Romney to make their own comeback?

New Hampshire will certainly be a crossroads for their campaign to make comebacks. While Romney is the favorite, McCain is certainly giving the Massachusetts Governor a run for his money. McCain would also have to eke out a win in South Carolina to capsize a comeback. It remains to be seen how Huckabee's momentum plays out after New Hampshire and if it is large enough to make a considerable presence in the first primary.


I was thinking of Huckabee TL yesterday!
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