Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Terry the Fat Shark]

What are the best sites to follow for live updates? I'm on the Guardian right now, but I can't make heads or tails of the exit polling data.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results

[Talleyrand]

Looks like an L/NP majority.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

ABC projects Tony Abbott has lost Warringah

[H. Ross Peron]

Seems like L/NP has made more net gains than ALP so far???

[cp]

Looks like an L/NP majority.

Seems like L/NP has made more net gains than ALP so far???

Only 21% of the votes have been counted.

[Umengus]

 3m ago 10:50

I am now getting reports that Labor needs pre poll to break for it in Lilley – Wayne Swan’s old seat – to hold on to it.

This is a swap of what the polls were saying. All of Queensland is a swap of what the polls were saying. And at this stage, may help the Coalition hold on to government.

[Umengus]

At this point, brace yourself for a hung parliament.

It is a very real possibility. Very real. As is a return of the Morrison government.

[H. Ross Peron]

Looks like an L/NP majority.

Seems like L/NP has made more net gains than ALP so far???

Only 21% of the votes have been counted.

But they seem confident enough to project those seats.

[Pericles]

2.2% swing to Labor in Victoria, but there's a 4.2% swing to Liberals in Queensland.

[Pericles]

Abbott lost at least but Dutton won and seems to have had a swing in his favor.

[Pericles]

Looks like Western Australia will decide the election.

[sopojarwo]

Why Queensland is rather conservative compared to other states ?

[Walmart_shopper]

Why Queensland is rather conservative compared to other states ?

Lots of Bogans.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Coalition will get the most seats if not an outright majority at this point.

[Umengus]

With no more then two expected in a best case scenario for WA, and the two in NT looking in trouble, this election is all but over for Labor, unless there is some massive turn around we are not seeing.

[Umengus]

With only 17/18 seats still in doubt, Labor would have to win all of them to win.

The swing is not going its way.

Scott Morrison and the Coalition look like, at this point, at being returned with a very comfortable majority.

[Cassius]

https://youtu.be/7_UPuhROOFg

[mileslunn]

Have they counted second choices or just first.  I would think most Greens would have Labor as second so that should close the gap a bit but probably not enough to win.  At this point either L/NP majority or hung parliament, Labor majority seems next to impossible even if votes counted break their way.  So strong likelihood Morrison stays on as PM.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Have they counted second choices or just first.  I would think most Greens would have Labor as second so that should close the gap a bit but probably not enough to win.  At this point either L/NP majority or hung parliament, Labor majority seems next to impossible even if votes counted break their way.  So strong likelihood Morrison stays on as PM.

Yeah all the projections take into account the 2 party preferred

[Intell]

QLD working class/middle class areas with ONP+UAP swing heavily to liberals, resulting in them winning the election.

The rest of the country remains the same with the liberals gaining in outer-suburban, lower-middle class/working class areas which is offset by the labor party gaining in suburban and upper middle class areas.

[Pericles]

At least I'm not that guy who bet $1 million on a Labor victory.

[mileslunn]

Have they counted second choices or just first.  I would think most Greens would have Labor as second so that should close the gap a bit but probably not enough to win.  At this point either L/NP majority or hung parliament, Labor majority seems next to impossible even if votes counted break their way.  So strong likelihood Morrison stays on as PM.

Yeah all the projections take into account the 2 party preferred

  :Have they actually counted second preferences or just projecting based on polls?  Agree Labor realistically has no path to victory, but just curious as polls might be closer once counted if they haven't already.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Have they counted second choices or just first.  I would think most Greens would have Labor as second so that should close the gap a bit but probably not enough to win.  At this point either L/NP majority or hung parliament, Labor majority seems next to impossible even if votes counted break their way.  So strong likelihood Morrison stays on as PM.

Yeah all the projections take into account the 2 party preferred

  :Have they actually counted second preferences or just projecting based on polls?  Agree Labor realistically has no path to victory, but just curious as polls might be closer once counted if they haven't already.

Yes, I believe they count those at the same time.

[Pericles]

If no seats change from their current leads it would be an exact status quo result of 76-69, a bare majority for ScoMo but looks a lot better when he comes from behind to win it than when Turnbull stumbles across the finish line to win it while losing 14 seats.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Antony Green (ABC) predicts the Coalition will win the federal election but cannot say whether it will have a majority or minority government.