The Hunting Grounds: Turmoil in America

[blackentheborg]

My preferences:

GOP -
1. Giuliani/Keyes (because I want this to go full doomsday)
2. Paul/Jindal (to destroy the government from the inside)
3. Cheney/Pataki (enhanced suffering mode, e n g a g e)

Democrats -
1. Kucinich/Gravel (Never gonna happen but a guy can dream)
2. Obama/Bredesen (a classic spin on an old classic)
3. Trump/Locke (just because I *know* this will be entertaining)

[Illini Moderate]

We gotta see Hillary vs Laura. That would be a wild turn of events

[Ferguson97]

Damn this is a wild ride

I'm predicting a Hillary Clinton vs Laura Bush general election, just because the prospect of two former first ladies running against each other (especially ones whose husbands ran against each other) is too good to pass up.

[S019]

Backing Hillary, but Obama or Gore are also fine, I'd be open to backing the Republicans, depending on the candidate, if Feingold wins.

Who would you back over Feingold? Pataki, maybe Johnson or Bush?

I'd take Giuliani, Pataki over Feingold for sure, and maybe Bush.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Gore/Feingold vs Bush/Pataki

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Feingold, Obama, Gore, and Locke are my top 4

[America Needs R'hllor]

The First Republican Debate
September 4th, 2007


The 2008 Republican Presidential Field
Sources: Wikipedia Commons

CNN - Considering all the circumstances, the Republican primary starting so late was one of the least weird parts of the 2007-2008 election year. Following President Hastert's resignation and dropping out of the race, the RNC had to quickly assemble the framework for a competitive primary, with several challengers to the freshly-minted President Giuliani. And so the debates started in September, once all the candidates had the chance to join the race. With just 10 serious candidates, the RNC decided to hold one debate with all of them (much to the protests of former Ambassador Keyes, the 11th candidate polling at 0%).

The first Republican debate was held in Drake University, Des Moines, Iowa, and hosted by ABC News. The podiums were arranged according to polling numbers, and looked thus:

Hunter - Johnson - Paul - Cheney - Giuliani - Pataki - Bush - Santorum - Brownback - Tancredo

One word could best be used to describe what most pundits and watchers thought of the debate- a mess. Tensions ran high, and the deep dislike between many of the candidates showed, and raised fears of the party's unity going into the general election. We will try to summarize what happened in the debate now, as we discuss its winners and losers and provide some excerpts from the night.

Winners:

Mitt Romney, John McCain and Jeb Bush- Three major Republican politicians who passed on a 2008 run and are considered likely to be mulling a 2012 run instead, their decisions look increasingly wise. Yes, Romney will be out of office for too many years by 2012, McCain will be too old and Bush was, according the polls, likely to do the impossible and unseat an incumbent President in the primary if he challenged Giuliani. But participating in this debate would've done them, and their careers, no favours. If the Republican Party will lose the 2008 election, as is looking increasingly likely, they will have a better chance in 2012.

Rick Santorum- The fact that Senator Santorum is on this side of the list seems to be more of an indictment on the rest than a point in favour of his debating skills. Santorum's debating was mediocre at best, but he had two advantages tonight, both related to the socially conservative base. In a party increasingly dominated by socially and culturally conservative voters, the 2008 primary has an odd situation- neither of the current top 4 contenders is considered much of a social conservative, and two of them (Giuliani and Pataki) are pro choice. In this debate, Santorum managed to appeal to that large pool of voters. First, he landed several attacks on the other candidates, particularly George Pataki who was the only one to strongly defend his socially liberal stances and got into a scuffle with Santorum. Second, the other pretenders to the socially conservative crown- Brownback, Tancredo and Hunter- all seemed to fade to the background. This debate could very well elavate Santorum.


Rick Santorum before the Republican debate
Source: Wikipedia Commons

Moderator: Governor Pataki, since you announced, you've spent some time defending your pro-choice views on abortion, your support for same-sex civil unions and other positions considered socially liberal. Are your views in line with the Republican voter base?

Pataki: Sure. Of course. We're the party of liberty, aren't we? And the Democrats are the party of restraining liberty. Look, I want us to be the party of the American dream- we 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness'. That includes women, and that includes those that choose to live in a same-sex partnership, even if we do not agree with their way of life. We need to concentrate on a government that paves the way for people to seek happiness, using fiscal restraing, balanced budgets and a healthy free market. Not a roadblock of a government.

Johnson: And, and I'd just like to add- Governor Pataki does want the government to be a roadblock by restraining the free market.

Moderator: Thank you, Governor. Senator Santorum, you've been a major critic of the type of policy Governor Pataki is promoting. Do you wish to respond?

Santorum: Yes. Yes. Our party is in danger, folks. Our party and our values. This year, we have candidates running who stand against all we believe in, the basic and fundamental beliefs that our heritage and our nation stand upon. Yes, we want to be the party of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. But you can't be free without God. You can't be happy as a sinner, no matter what they tell you. And you sure as hell can't talk about life while supporting the institutionalized genocide that is the abortion industry. Governor Pataki, and also President Giuliani, Ms. Bush and former President Cheney- none of them will defend the unborn or stand up to the corruption of our family. Only I will.

Pataki: This- this type of fundamentalist, frankly Soviet rhetoric, isn't something that should be acceptable in our party. Senator Santorum is opposed to the basic principles of our nation, he wants to usher in a religious fundamentalist, socialist dystopia.

Santorum: Governor Pataki is the one opposed to our basic principles. He wants a dystopia where our families are shattered and sick, a slippery slope to bestiality, a nation of Godless, depraved people without any soul to their lives. We need to fight this future.

Rudy Giuliani- Possibly the most controversial pick on our list, and another one resulting from the performance of other candidates. President Giuliani's debating left much to be desired, with several missteps and an overly-enthused delivery. But luckily for him, his opponents could not mount an effective attack on him, concentrating on their own feuds. Santorum attacked Pataki more than the President, Bush attacked Cheney, and the rest weren't much of a factor. Giuliani did come out fine after a scuffle with Pataki, which further helped him. Giuliani will not likely gain much in the polls after tonight- but he will not lose much either, and that is a win.

Ron Paul: In such a chaotic and tension-filled debate, Paul's unique voice, that of a paleoconservative libertarian, resonated. He managed to stand out with a stakly ideological message and earned a lot of clapping. With Americans feeling increasingly distrustful of the political system, he could capitalize.


Ron Paul speaking to supporters after the debate
Source: Flickr

Giuliani: So I think that Americans realize who showed leadership. I showed leadership as Mayor, many times. Governor Pataki didn't show leadership. President Cheney didn't show leadership. Friends, we need to elect a leader. That is the only way we win in 2008.

Moderator: Governor Pataki, President Giuliani just said you did not show leadership. You served together during 911, and during many other years. Did you show less leadership than the Mayor of New York City?

Pataki: Well, frankly, this is preposterous. I was there in 911, fighting alongside Rudy. That he is smearing me now shows exactly his character, one I came to know well during our time serving together. Rudy is a narcissist, a person who only cares about his own self-promotion. Photo-ops and big words, that's all he cares to do. And claiming that I was a bad Governor is contrary to the people of New York, who liked me and reelected me by great margins. If I, like Rudy, stayed silent while my boss was revealed to be a child molester- which I would never- I wouldn't be here talking about leadership. That isn't leadership, that is cowardice.

Giuliani: I didn't say you were a bad Governor, George, you were an ok Governor. He was an ok Governor. But now he's showing his character, attacking me like that. I was doing more than anyone after 911, showing the leadership we need so much as a nation right now. And before that, I greatly reduced crime in my city, and lead it to prosperity. I will do the same for America.

Paul: Hold on, hold on, can I say something? I think that what we're seeing here is a disgrace. These two, career politicians who squabble over their political careers, talking like they're the center of the attention. This is why we're in such a sorry state in our politics right now. Politicians are bloating the government, using it for their own purposes. For their own careers. We need to stop this. We need to revert to a small government, one that doesn't intervene with out life and freedom and steals our hard-earned money to put it in these peoples' pockets. We need to stop going into unnecessary and disastrous military campaigns that are meant to line up their buddies' pockets. Rudy and George here both supported the disaster of the Iraq War, by the way. All my friends up here, they will all start another war if it helps them. Beware.

Losers:

Brownback, Tancredo, Hunter and Johnson: This one is the obvious. None of the lowest-polling candidates managed to have much of a presence. The first three just seemed to blend and didn't get as much time or place as Santorum to sound their ultra-conservative viewpoints. Tancredo did managed to get in a line about illegal immigration that got some applause, but it quickly faded in the general chaos. Johnson, on the other hand, seemed ill-fitting for the party. He talked a lot about the free market, but also got some booes for suggesting that "there is no reason to prevent same-sex partners from having the same freedoms as the rest of us".

The Republican Party: Ok, that is a cliche way to put it. But the Republican Party lost last night's debate. Along with the Giuliani-Pataki feud and the increasingly radical voices from Paul and Santorum that saw dominance, they also rehashed a scandal that was sure to grow the voters' distate in the party even more- the Cheney scandal. Former First Lady Laura Bush landed scathing attacks against former President Cheney, accusing him of her personal grief. It was a heart-wrenching moment, but sure to harm the party. As the Democrats go through a relatively smooth campaign, the Republicans collapse in in-fighting and radicalism. If the GOP continues on this trajectory, they do not have much of a prayer of winning this year.


Laura Bush in a campaign rally before the deabte
Source: US Department of State

Cheney: Running for President wasn't something I was planning to do. Really. It's not. I was planning to go back to Wyoming and leave out my life peacefully. But this, what I saw last year, this lack of leadership- I could not stand aside. While President Hastert lead us from crisis to crisis and botched our foreign policy, while our economy deteoriated for no good reason, while our current President stayed silent as Vice President and showed no ounce of bravery... while all of this was happening, our greatness was diminished. I'm here to bring back this greatness, because I know how to. I'm the only candidate on this stage who will know how to steer the ship and stabilize it, and to re-assert our dominance globally.

Bush: Excuse me- excuse me, but I cannot stand by while I hear this. I just cannot. President Cheney, the fact that you're running, the fact that you dare show your face at all after what you've done, it's- it's evil. Simply evil. This man, this disgusting man right there, he's the one who killed my husband, our President, our last good President. He didn't follow hunting guidelines and he drank before shooting, because he didn't care. He didn't care if anyone, including my husband, got harmed. He only resigned because he had no choice, and now he smelled opportunity and dares to run again, because he's hungry for power.

The average score our pundits gave to the candidates last night:
Ron Paul- 6.1
Rick Santorum- 5.5
Laura Bush- 5.1
Rudy Giuliani- 4.5
George Pataki- 4.2
Tom Tancredo- 4.0
Gary Johnson- 3.8
Duncan Hunter- 2.6
Dick Cheney- 2.5
Sam Brownback- 1.2

Post-Debate polling

Who do you think won last night's Republican Debate? (debate watchers)
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 18%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 13%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 13%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 11%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 10%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 6%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 4%
U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)- 4%
Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS)- 1%
U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)- 0%
Don't Know- 20%

Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 2008?
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 30% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 16% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 10% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 8% ↓ (-1)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 7% ↑ (+2)
Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS)- 2% ↓ (-1)
U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)- 2% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2% = (+-0)
U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)- 1% = (+-0)
Others/Undecided- 8% ↓ (-1)

[America Needs R'hllor]

The 2008 Election
Part II- September to December (2007)


Sources: Wikipedia Commons

September 3rd: As Iraq War becomes central topic, Clinton faces attacks from Gore, Obama, Feingold in Democratic Debate

September 4th: Republican debate described as "a mess", Giuliani withstands heavy fire

Semptember 6th: Israeli airstrike destroys suspected nuclear reactor in Syria, Giuliani refuses to condemn

September 12th: Economists sounds the alarms on global stock market instability

September 18th: Former White House Chief of Staff Tyrone Fahner arrested for financial charges, lying to FBI

September 21st: Senator Brownback attacks rival Santorum as "a dangerous socialist"

September 26th: Former President Cheney releases ad showing hypothetical America where he doesn't resign- including utopian "liberated" Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, and stable politics at home

September 28th: Hastert officially indicted for financial charges; statue of limitation on sexual misconduct

October 2nd: Once a promising candidate with experience, name and charisma, Bayh camp frustrated by inability to gain steam

October 5th: President Giuliani meets with congressional leaders on climate legislation

October 8th: Giuliani withdraws from negotiations with Democrats, claims they want to "destroy the economy"

October 9th: Pelosi says President was ready to sign "extensive environmental bill", balked due to primary fears

October 13th: NEW: Iowa poll shows Gov. Vilsack slipping to 5th with 13%; Gore leads with 22%, followed by Obama, Clinton, Feingold with 20%, 19%, 15%

October 15th: Unable to gain traction and declining in own homestate, Tom Vilsack drops out of the race

October 19th: OPINION: Sam Brownback is trying to be the most conservative candidate on everything. So far, it's not working.

October 20th: Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter says George Pataki is "last hope of the GOP"

October 23rd: Senator Chris Dodd drops out of the race, endorses Joe Biden


October 24th: The Crowd Size Champions- Feingold for the Democrats, Paul for the Republicans

October 28th: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner elected President of Argentina

October 29th: Laura Bush releases comprehensive education and literacy plan to little fanfare

November 3rd: Joe Biden is charismatic, experienced and popular with independents. But with a crowded field, he's stuck at the bottom

November 6th: Governor Bredesen calls out "radical" Feingold for "pie in the sky" healthcare plan

November 10th: Disappointed with polling numbers, Bayh leaves Democratic race

November 13th: Governor Gary Locke releases "Free and Fair Trade for America", detailing trade agreements with East Asian countries, cornering of China

November 17th: Sam Brownback drops out of the race, citing "no path to the nomination"; no endorsement

November 19th: Gore distances himself from wife's remarks on video games as rumours abound of "troubled marriage"

November 20th: Gary Johnson managed to gain a niche of socially and economically libertarian Republicans. But can he expand?

November 22nd: Locke gains interest in massive infrastructure investment plan

November 28th: Feingold eclipses Obama in new national poll, but performs worst against Giuliani

December 2nd: Napolitano releases viral ad smashing physical glass ceiling

December 5th: U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter drops out of the race following several polls at 0%

December 7th: Clinton campaign reportedly worried about losing grip on Iowa

December 9th: SPECIAL: 2004 Vice Presidential nominee. Rising star. Young and charismatic. A progressive and populist economic tone. It sounds like a winning candidate, but John Edwards is stuck at low support. What went wrong? Former campaign operatives speak out on toxic work environment, bad messaging, support slipping towards Feingold and Obama

December 11th: With economy slowing, some experts say that America has entered a recession

December 12th: With zingers against illegal immigrants gaining little interest, Rep. Tom Tancredo drops out

December 13th: European Union members sign historic Treaty of Lisbon

December 17th: Obama campaign sweeps through Iowa, putting hopes on the state

December 19th: Nevada shock poll shows Napolitano leading, Gore second

December 20th: Gary Locke's campaign has been a bright spot, but he struggles to find a favourable early state

December 21st: Santorum sweeps through Iowa, capturing attention of evangelical, rural base with "economic patriotism" and Christian morality message

December 23rd: Governor Bill Richardson surprisingly leaves race after campaign unable to regain early high numbers

December 25th: Giuliani moving on to New Hampshire as Iowa slips; Bush, Pataki hope to present a challenge there

December 27th: Feingold, polling second in both Iowa and New Hampshire, hopes for an early state sweep

December 29th: Obama announces he visited every single Iowa county; Gore begins final few days swing through the state

January 1st: U.S. enters uncertain 2008 with economic, political instability

January 3rd: GOP, Democratic Iowa Caucuses begin


Following the stabilization of the GOP Primary field in September, the competitive primaries for both major parties got into full gears. The different candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations competed in multiple debates and went on hundreds of events across Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and other states. Soon enough, the picture became clearer.

On the GOP side- President Rudy Giuliani was the man to beat, but also the incumbent President in the weakest primary position for many long years. His campaign left a lot to be desired, and sources say advisors had to prevent him from making a strategic decision to focus on Super Tuesday rather than early states. He made multiple gaffes, and he had a glaring open spot for attacks- opponents like Pataki and Bush hammered him for staying silent for many long months while the Foley and Hastert scandals unfolded, especially for breaking his silence so late. Giuliani didn't say that Hastert should resign after the Mueller arrest, the Seiki testimony or even immediately after several Hastert victims spoke out- he only did so a day after the House impeached the President.

But luckily for the short-time incumbent, his opponents had a hard time getting it together. Former Governor George Pataki was, on paper, his strongest opponent, but his socially liberal positions soured many potential Giuliani opponents on him, and many saw his campaign as too personally petty against the President. And while the Bush fans were powerful among the donor and political class, and she raised hefty amounts, Laura Bush struggled with voters and didn't seem to catch enough support. Many considered her too inexperienced, or just lacking a compelling message. Still, she remained a major force throughout.

One candidate, though, was making some on the Giuliani team worried. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, fresh off a landslide reelection loss, was surprisingly gaining steam, his anti-gay and anti-abortion statements earning him admirers among the religious right. He wasn't a good debater or very charismatic, but still he gained, many voters forgiving his loss in Pennsylvania with the rationale that many Republicans lost in that Democratic wave year. He even won the Ames, Iowa straw poll (held later in 2007 due to the unique situation) and surged in the state.


Rick Santorum speaking to supporters in Iowa rally (source: Flickr)

This was much to the frustration of Sam Brownback, fellow religious-right candidate who dropped out in mid-November after failing to gain steam. He was followed by anti-immigration candidate Tom Tancredo and U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter, who left the race in December. With most socially conservative candidates out, Santorum gained even more, and soon emerged into the top tier of candidates. Another candiate, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, saw a surge in support as his anti-war, anti-government ideas gained steam in the party. Former President Cheney, meanwhile, maintained a strong base of hawkish voters afraid of rising national security threats abroad.

By mid-December, the state of the race was unpredictable: the incumbent was leading by a decent margin, but Santorum threatened to take Iowa and Pataki threatened New Hampshire, leading to an unstable situation. If he lost both, Giuliani could be in for trouble in the next contests.

Ames, Iowa Straw Poll Results (September 2007)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 32%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 14%
Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS)- 13%
U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)- 11%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 10%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 9%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 7%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 3%
U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)- 1%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0%

On the Democratic side, the situation was even more competitive. As time progressed, Al Gore managed to become more visible and performed very well in debates, showing a new-found charisma. This helped him to narrowly pass former frontrunner Hillary Clinton, but both were still very close at the top, followed by Obama. The Senator from Illinois, while running a good campaign and being polled as the candidate with the highest favourables consistently, seemed to struggle with expanding beyond his sizable base of avid supporters.


Barack Obama's enthusiastic supporters- will they be enough? (source: Flickr)

This was partly due to the insurgent in the race- Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, who had a slow but steady rise until he emerged to the top pack. Getting bigger and bigger crowds, Feingold excited the left of the party with promises of an anti-war policy (though not promising to leave Afghanistan), universal healthcare, same sex marriage and and extensive campaign finance reforms. After unveiling his "New American Democracy" plan that promised to ban gerrymandering and committed to a nationwide automatic voter registration, he surged in the polls and was just slightly behind Obama. Clinton, meanwhile, struggled due to another candidate- Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who ran an energetic campaign that excited many women with her strong rhetoric that focused on women's issues. Most other candiates fell behind, though Washington's Gary Locke managed to stake a strong position with a campaign considered "the most wonkish", presenting detailed policy. The candidate who seemed the most harmed was former Senator John Edwards, who seemed stuck on fairly measely numbers.

During October, two candidates dropped out- Iowa's Tom Vilsack, after consistently losing in Iowa polls, and Senator Chris Dodd, who seemed stuck at 0% in most polls and couldn't gain any steam. Senator Evan Bayh followed them in November, unable to gain any traction after flopping in the first debate, and in December a major drop-out followed them in New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who seemed squeezed in the large field and unable to fine his niche.

As the Iowa Caucuses grew nearer, the competition between the frontrunners- Gore, Clinton, Obama and Feingold- grew fierce. Clinton and Gore especially seemed to attack each other, while all three candidates attacked Clinton for supporting the Iraq War and Feingold argued that he's the "experienced progressive with the better ideas", a dig at the one-term Senator Obama. Who would win remained hard to predict.


Note: the next post will be a pre-Iowa polling update!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Pre-Iowa Polling Update (January 2008)

President Rudy Giuliani job approval (January 1st)
Disapprove- 56% ↑ (+1)
Approve- 36% = (+-0)
Unsure- 8% ↓ (-1)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi approval (January 1st)
Approve- 47% ↓ (-2)
Disapprove- 45% ↑ (+1)
Unsure- 8% ↑ (+1)

Direction of the Country (January 1st)
Wrong Track- 75% ↓ (-1)
Right Track- 18% ↑ (+1)
Unsure- 7% = (+-0)

Who will you support in the 2008 Presidential election? (Giuliani)
Generic Democrat- 52% ↓ (-1)
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 39% ↑ (+2)
Others\Undecided- 9% ↓ (-1)

Who will you support in the 2008 Presidential election? (Other Republican)
Generic Democrat- 49% ↑ (+1)
Generic Republican- 41% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 10% ↓ (-1)

General Election Match-Ups:
Gore 53% - Giuliani 38
Clinton 52% - Giuliani 39%
Obama 49% - Giuliani 40%
Feingold 47% - Giuliani 40%
Gore 50% - Pataki 39%
Clinton 50% - Pataki 40%
Obama 48% - Pataki 41%
Feingold 45% - Pataki 42%
Gore 52% - Bush 40%
Clinton 50% - Bush 39%
Obama 49% - Bush 41%
Feingold 46% - Bush 43%
Gore 56% - Santorum 35%
Clinton 54% - Santorum 36%
Obama 50% - Santorum 38%
Feingold 48% - Santorum 39%


Republican Presidential Primaries- National
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 14% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 13% ↑ (+3)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 9% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 8% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 4% ↑ (+2)
Others/Undecided- 7% ↓ (-2)

Republican Iowa Caucuses
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 24%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 21%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 17%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 13%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 12%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 6%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 1%
Others/Undecided- 6%

Republican New Hampshire Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 22%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 10%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 7%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 6%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 5%
Others/Undecided- 5%

Republican Michigan Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 37%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 26%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 13%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 8%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 7%

Republican Nevada Caucuses
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 27%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 17%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 16%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 11%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 8%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 7%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 7%
Others/Undecided- 7%

Republican South Carolina Primaries
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 24%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 20%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 17%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 17%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 10%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 1%
Others/Undecided- 6%


Democratic Presidential Primaries- National
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22% ↓ (-2)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 20% ↓ (-3)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 17% ↑ (+1)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 15% ↑ (+3)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 10% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 5% ↑ (+2)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 2% = (+-0)
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 2% ↓ (-1)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 1% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 4% ↓ (-1)

Democratic Iowa Caucuses
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 17%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 15%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 6%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 5%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 4%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 3%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0%
Others\Undecided- 5%

Democratic New Hampshire Primary
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 19%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 18%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 15%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 13%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 9%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 8%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 3%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 3%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 2%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 1%
Others\Undecided- 7%

Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 19%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 17%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 13%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 12%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 6%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 5%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 4%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0%
Others\Undecided- 6%

Democratic South Carolina Primary
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 21%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 19%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 18%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 11%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 7%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 6%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 5%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 4%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0%
Others\Undecided- 6%

[😥]

Go, Al! We need Al Gore!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

#FriendsOfFeingold

[Joseph Cao]

This kind of feels like a proto-2020 field on the Democratic side, if I’m being honest.

Hillary = Biden (frontrunner in danger of being eclipsed)
Obama = Sanders (big, enthusiastic base)
Feingold = Warren (progressive bona fides)
Gore = ?? Maybe Harris?
Locke = Yang
Napolitano = Gillibrand (women’s issues candidate)
Edwards = Booker (good on paper, but struggling)

[America Needs R'hllor]

January 3rd, 2008, Des Moines, Iowa

Barack

Source: Wikipedia

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (40% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21.3%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.6%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.7%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.3%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 6.0%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4.1%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 2.6%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.9%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 1.1%

The Junior Senator from Illinois was exhausted. This whole campaign season was one of the most competitive in recent memory, and Barack was one of the chief candidates. As it increasingly looked like the key state for him, he ran circles around Iowa. After dozens of events, Barack was satisfied that he did all he could. Now, it was up to the voters, or rather those participating in the caucuses.

Barack's team was feeling a bit frustrated, he knew. They went to the election with big potential- the only real opponent they expected to face was the frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. But then Al Gore ran, and proved more charismatic and a better campaigner than expected. His anti-Iraq War message undercut Barack's own appeal, and he had a lot of experience to boot, during a time Americans were craving a stable hand on the wheel. Then there was Feingold, whose campaign and rise were both unexpected, and who took much of the progressive grassroots energy Obama was relying on. The only reason he didn't end up boxed out like Edwards was his own charisma and sheer force of will (and Michelle's- his wife's events were as popular as his own).

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (55% reporting)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 22.2%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 20.4%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.9%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 15.8%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 5.5%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4.7%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4.0%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 2.9%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.7%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.8%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 1.0%

Everyone around him cheered as a batch of votes that was favourable to him came in. Could they actually win this?

"We have a major call to make," they said in the TV suddenly, and everyone listened with intent, even though they could guess at what the call was and it didn't really concern them right now. "Former Senator Rick Santorum will win the Republican Iowa Caucuses, a major victory for a challenger against the incumbent President, which has to worry Giuliani going forward! Santorum wiped the rest of his rivals with the strong, influential evangelical conservative base in Iowa, and also performed very strongly in rural, farming areas. While Giuliani and Ms. Bush appear to have won some urban counties, it will not be enough."


Iowa Republican Caucuses (65% reporting)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 29.2% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 20.8%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 19.4%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 16.3%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 11.1%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 2.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0.3%
Others- 0.4%

It was good for them, Obama contemplated- the more discord on the other side, the better. But soon, their attention went back to the Democratic race, closer than the Republican. Their campaign drew big crowds, and in the final days they brought out their most important endorsers, including Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie, Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and more. Now they were sitting at the watch party, just him and Michelle and their closest staff. Everyone around him was stressed, eating nails and pacing the room, but Barack felt calm, sitting at ease. If he won, great. If not, they'll evaluate the campaign. In any case, it's not like his career's shape would be any worse after this year. It was bound to either improve or remain the same, so what's to be stressed about?

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (75% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21.7%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.5%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.1%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.2%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4.9%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 4.8%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.9%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.2%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.6%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.8%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 1.2%

The sound of "awww" sounded in the room, as the new votes came in favourable to the Gore and Feingold camps. The race was a tight three-way battle, and that was a bit worrying- the Wisconsin Senator was nipping at their heels, and could actually pull this off with some luck, or at least relegate Barack to the third place. Hillary was banking on New Hampshire, but her vote share in Iowa wasn't that bad so far. Meanwhile, the candidate who seemed to be collapsing the most relative to expectations was Edwards. He would probably be out of the race by New Hampshire.

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (85% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21.9%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.4%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.2%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.3%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4.8%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 4.4%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.5%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.7%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.7%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 1.0%

The counting continued throughout the night, and the mood at the room grew less and less hopeful with the newer batches. Gore appealed to be pulling away from his closest rivals, and now most of the speculation was that Feingold and Obama would be fighting for the second place. It was very important for the momentum of both campaigns going forward.

"We now have a major call to make!" Wolf Blitzer shouted from the many TV screens in the room, and everyone grew quiet. "Former Vice President Al Gore will win the Iowa Democratic Caucuses! A strong performance in rural areas and a decent performance in urban centers- just a bit behind Feingold and Obama, respectively, as it looks right now- gave Gore a very important victory in this first state, and definitely reinforces his frontrunner-status. Hillary Clinton and his other rivals will have to work hard in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. But now, all the attention is on the tight race for the second place- will it be Obama, or will it be Feingold?"

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (95% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22.4% ✓
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.3%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.2%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.4%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 5.3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.9%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 3.7%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.7%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.5%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.8%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 0.7%

"It's not looking great for us," one of his staffers said worriedly. The remaining votes are mostly from the college towns where Feingold performs well, and some from the western areas where Gore is strong. We could come third."

"Probably," Obama said. "It's ok."

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (97% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22.5% ✓
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.3%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.2%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.6%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 5.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.9%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.7%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 3.7%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.3%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.8%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 0.7%

The newest batch confirmed their fears. Feingold was ahead of them, and it was not likely to change.

"Should I prepare a statement?" His speechwriter asked.

"Sure," Barack said. But his mind was already working, going somewhere else. A thought started forming in his mind, you could call it a plan, or maybe just an idea, or a realization. He exchanged an understanding look with Michelle.

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Results (100% reporting)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22.5% ✓
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.4%
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 20.1%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.6%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 5.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4.0%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.7%
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 3.6%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2.3%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0.8%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.1%
Others- 0.7%

Iowa Republican Caucuses (100% reporting)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 29.8% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 20.5%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 19.6%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 16.3%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 10.8%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 2.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0.3%
Others- 0.5%

[America Needs R'hllor]

January 4th, 2008

BREAKING NEWS: Senator Barack Obama drops out of the Democratic Presidential Primaries, endorses former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination

DES MOINES - In a shocking turn of events, one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination dropped out in the morning after losing the Iowa Caucuses. The Junior Illinois Senator, a very popular Democrat with the highest in-party favourables amongst the candidates according to most polls, could not garner enough support around him, and came third in the Iowa Caucuses, which his campaign put many resources in. Feingold, who managed to gain strong support among young voters, narrowly passed him to get the second place, positioning himself strongly before the New Hampshire Primary.

Obama's move is surprising for several reasons. The first one is that he could've continued and hoped for victory in South Carolina, where his strength with black voters could've aided him. The second is that for a person of his stature to endorse in the primaries so early was rare. It looks like his political closeness to Gore (both are anti-Iraq War but otherwise relatively moderate), as well as what many view as a friendship developed during the campaign, was what sealed the deal. Now, the former Vice President stands to benefit double from the Caucuses- both from the momentum he gained from winning them, and from Obama's support, a very poweful force. Obama's supporters aren't all expected to go to Gore- many of the younger Obama fans could back Feingold, while working class supporters might find appeal in Hillary Clinton's increasingly populist campaign- but Gore still must be happy with recent events.


January 5th, 2008

New: Fmr. Senator Edwards dropping out of the Presidential race, endorses Hillary Clinton

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Another major candidate left the Democratic Presidential contest, albeit to lesser fanfare than yesterday's Obama announcement.

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwardsserved a term in the U.S. Senate, from 1999 to 2005, but gained renown for a strong and charismatic presence in the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primaries. Later chosen for the failed Kerry\Edwards ticket, the loss damaged him. But he still went to the 2008 campaign in a strong position- a populist anti-poverty campaign message of "Two Americas" and his charisma and youth. But something went wrong- Edwards didn't seem to get the message out as effectively as in 2004, and he was drowned out by his rivals- Feingold with his further-left economic policies and youth support, Obama with his anti-war message and charisma, Clinton with her tack to a populist, pro-labour campaign, and Gore with his experience and southern appeal.

After a very disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucuses, the beginning of his rise in 2004- he came 8th, behind rivals Locke and Napolitano who barely focused on Iowa- Edwards saw the writing on the wall. His dropping out of the race is unsurprising, but his decision to endorse Hillary Clinton is. According to inside sources, Clinton worked very hard to earn that endorsement, perhaps promising a high position in her administration, with the intent to tout it as part of her attempt to run as the pro-union, working class candidate.

These sources also say that Clinton tried to court Senator Joe Biden (D-DE), who dropped out after the Iowa Caucuses were called for Gore. She was unsuccessful, as Biden opted not to endorse anyone. His former endorser, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), did announce his support for Gore.

[😥]

It is just amazing! I'd be fine with both Gore or Clinton!

[Orwell]

 it's looking like Gore/Obama, but knowing our luck Gore or Obama are gonna get shot by Dick Cheney

[America Needs R'hllor]

The 2008 Election
Part III- Iowa to New Hampshire


Sources: Wikipedia Commons

January 3rd, 23:42 PM: Senator Joe Biden drops out of the race following Iowa loss, not making an endorsement
January 4th, 10:43 AM: BREAKING NEWS: Senator Barack Obama drops out of the Democratic Presidential Primaries, endorses former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination
January 4th, 14:55 PM: Senator Clinton vows to go on, shifts focus to New Hampshire, Nevada
January 4th, 16:04 PM: Giuliani campaign confident New Hampshire win could allow him to dominate the primary
January 5th, 11:03 AM: John Edwards drops out of the race, offers surprising endorsement of Hillary Clinton; Chris Dodd endorsing Al Gore
January 5th, 16:31 PM: Dick Cheney wins Wyoming Caucuses, a much-needed boost for this candidacy
January 6th: Analysis of critical pre-New Hampshire Democratic Debate: Feingold and Napolitano come off strong, Clinton earns applause for defense of unions, Gore suffers under attacks from rivals
January 7th, 8:40 AM: In pre-New Hampshire Republican debate, Pataki lands successful punches on Giuliani, Santorum; Bush unable to stand out
January 7th, 10:55 AM: Giuliani, Pataki and Bush prepare to duke it out in New Hampshire; Santorum, Cheney move on to Nevada and South Carolina
January 7th, 8:34 PM: Feingold, Clinton sweep through New Hampshire; can they beat Gore?
January 8th: New Hampshire starts voting, victory critical for several campaigns

On the Republican side, Iowa was an expected affair. Santorum, riding on a grassroots energy created by his hard work throughout the state and his appeal to evangelicals and rural farmers, won a decent victory, and perhaps only the large margin was a surprise.

Disappointed but unsurprised, the Giuliani campaign (now with the title of the first incumbent President who lost a primary state since LBJ in 1968) set its sights on New Hampshire- a state that was expected to be much more friendly to the President's brand of more moderate, socially liberal politics, and relatively close to his New York home. The only problem was George Pataki. The New York Governor skipped Iowa, and spent many days campaigning in New Hampshire, a style of campaign that is considered effective in the state. His brand of politics was even more moderate than Giuliani's, and his appeal to independents considered stronger. This raised many worries in the Giuliani camp- if he lost New Hampshire too, he would be in trouble.

Laura Bush, with a solid base of support but seemingly unable to expand enough to win states, was also hoping for a strong showing in the state, while Rick Santorum hoped to do well enough via his Iowa momentum, but otherwise moved on to more friendly states like Nevada and South Carolina.

Two days after the convention, former President Cheney won his first victory- in the Wyoming Caucuses, decided by a party convention. The former President's homestate advantage proved itself, but it was left to be seen if it could help him revive his middling numbers. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson both seemed to bank on a strong New Hampshire showing, too, campaigning heavily in the state.

Wyoming Republican Caucuses Results
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 55.7% ✓
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 21.4%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 12.5%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.6%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 3.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 1.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0.0%
Others- 0.0%

But on the Democratic side, the Iowa Caucuses were a seismic change. The most major news was Barack Obama's withdrawal from the race, endorsing Al Gore. But Edwards' drop-out (and endorsement of Clinton, as well as Biden's, left many new voters without home and was sure to scramble the race. It was hard to predict what would happen going into New Hampshire, but most observers pitted it as a three-way race between Iowa victor Al Gore, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Russ Feingold, Iowa runner-up.

Governor Locke also heavily invested in the state, hoping to overperform, while Governor Napolitano moved on to campaign heavily in Nevada with the hope of a strong showing there, and Governor Bredesen moved to focus on South Carolina.

New Hampshire was sure to be a critical moment in the race. Will Gore be able to use it to sweep the Democratic Primaries? Will Clinton revive her status as frontrunner? Will Feingold's insurgent campaign become a threat to the frontrunners? Will President Giuliani be able to put behind his more moderate challengers? Will Pataki win an unlikely comeback and become a threat to the President he dislikes so deeply? Will Bush shock observers and become a winning candidate? There was a lot to find out.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Pre-New Hampshire Polling Update (January 2008)
New: colors assigned to each candidate!

President Rudy Giuliani job approval (January 8th)
Disapprove- 56% = (+-0)
Approve- 37% ↑ (+1)
Unsure- 7% ↓ (-1)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi approval (January 8th)
Approve- 46% ↓ (-1)
Disapprove- 45% = (+-0)
Unsure- 9% ↑ (+1)

Direction of the Country (January 8th)
Wrong Track- 73% ↓ (-2)
Right Track- 19% ↑ (+1)
Unsure- 8% ↑ (+1)

General Election Match-Ups:
Gore 54% - Giuliani 38
Clinton 52% - Giuliani 40%
Feingold 48% - Giuliani 42%
Gore 50% - Pataki 40%
Clinton 49% - Pataki 40%
Feingold 47% - Pataki 42%
Gore 53% - Bush 40%
Clinton 52% - Bush 39%
Feingold 49% - Bush 43%
Gore 55% - Santorum 36%
Clinton 53% - Santorum 36%
Feingold 50% - Santorum 40%


Republican Presidential Primaries- National
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 30% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 16% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 13% ↓ (-1)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 9% = (+-0)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 8% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 3% ↓ (-1)
Others/Undecided- 7% = (+-0)

Republican New Hampshire Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 29% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 25% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% = (+-0)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 11% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 9% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 5% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 3% ↓ (-2)
Others/Undecided- 4% ↓ (-1)

Republican Michigan Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 35% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 25% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 12% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 12% ↑ (+4)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 6% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 2% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2% = (+-0)
Others/Undecided- 6% ↓ (-1)

Republican Nevada Caucuses
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 26% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 16% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 16% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 15% ↑ (+4)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 7% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 7% = (+-0)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 6% ↓ (-1)
Others/Undecided- 7% = (+-0)

Republican South Carolina Primaries
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 22% ↓ (-2)
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 20% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 20% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 18% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 8% ↓ (-2)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 1% = (+-0)
Others/Undecided- 6% = (+-0)


Democratic Presidential Primaries- National
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 28% ↑ (+6)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23% ↑ (+3)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19% ↑ (+4)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 12% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 7% ↑ (+2)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4% ↑ (+2)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 1% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 6% ↑ (+2)

Democratic New Hampshire Primary
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 22% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21% ↑ (+6)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 21% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 13% ↑ (+4)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 9% ↑ (+1)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 3% = (+-0)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 3% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 1% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 7% = (+-0)

Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 23% ↑ (+4)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 21% ↑ (+5)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 20% ↑ (+3)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 16% ↑ (+4)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 7% ↑ (+1)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 5% = (+-0)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 8% ↑ (+2)

Democratic South Carolina Primary
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 28% ↑ (+10)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23% ↑ (+4)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 14% ↑ (+3)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 11% ↑ (+4)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 7% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4% ↑ (+1)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 0% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 13% ↑ (+7)

[America Needs R'hllor]

January 9th, 2008

Feingold wins narrow victory in New Hampshire Democratic Primary, Clinton edges out Gore for second; Kucinich to drop out, endorses Feingold



MANCHESTER - Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, a progressive favourite, won an upset in the New Hampshire Primary last night. Feingold, who was polling second in the state, narrowly won over frontrunners Hillary Rodham Clinton and Al Gore. The victory is a shock to many in the party's more centrist establishment, and proves the staying strength of Feingold as a candidate and of the progressive movement generally. New Hampshire has been a fertile ground for progressive and insurgent candidates in the pass, so now Feingold will have to prove his strength in the next contests. Meanwhile, he already got a boost- Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a candidate to his left who didn't gain much traction, dropped out following a disappointing New Hampshire showing and endorsed Feingold, further consolidating the left-wing vote.

Among the other candidates, Gore is the most disappointed- following an Iowa win, his team hoped for enough momentum to win or at least come second in the next contest, but he fell short, placing behind Hillary Clinton. The former First Lady, meanwhile, comes out in a fairly decent shape, though Nevada will be a do or die contest for her- she has to win at least one of the early state to keep her credibility as a frontrunner, and South Carolina is looking like an uphill climb as her numbers with black voters decline. The Clinton campaign is expected to make a heavy push for Nevada, using heavily pro-union rhetoric and courting the endorsement of the all-important culinary union. Gore, meanwhile, is reportedly seeing his numbers in Nevada with a rather dim view, and is putting his hopes in South Carolina.

On the lower tier of candidates, Napolitano is focusing squarely on Nevada, where her strength with latino voters could help. Locke, despite focusing on New Hampshire, opted to stay in the race after overperforming there and is preparing for Super Tuesday. Bredesen is also not putting many hopes on Nevada, and is focusing on South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Democratic New Hampshire Primary Results (100% reporting)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 25.7% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 24.3%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22.8%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 16.0%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 5.6%
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 2.1%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 1.3%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.8%
Others- 1.4%

President Giuliani in trouble as Pataki edges him out in New Hampshire



PORTSMOUTH - A shocking result unfolded in the Republican New Hampshire Primary, as Governor George Pataki edged out President Rudy Giuliani. Pataki, a moderate, socially liberal challenger campaigned extensively in the state, and it seemed to pay off. His personal rivalry with Giuliani will probably make the win especially sweet. Now, Giuliani will need to find a way to recover and regain momentum- losing two states in a row has to worry his campaign. Going forward, Giuliani and Pataki are expected to focus on the upcoming Michigan Primary, where the two are in a tight battle, while Giuliani also hopes to win convinicingly in Nevada.

Former First Lady Laura Bush, who came a disappointing fourth in New Hampshire, is focusing on Nevada and South Carolina and mostly ignoring Michigan, while Ron Paul, who continued to overperform and came third in the Granite State, will go forward with renewed momentum. Iowa winner Santorum, who didn't count on New Hampshire, is deep in campaigning in Nevada and South Carolina, while former President Cheney is focusing on South Carolina, Florida and Super Tuesday. Gary Johnson reportedly nearly dropped out of the race after coming second-to-last in New Hampshire, but is expected to give it one last chance in Nevada, a state close to his home of New Mexico.

Republican New Hampshire Primary Results (100% reporting)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 29.8% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 28.5%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 14.2%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 10.4%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 10.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 4.6%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 1.8%
Others- 0.5%


Post-New Hampshire Polling Update (January 12th, 2008)

General Election Match-Ups:
Gore 55% - Giuliani 38
Clinton 54% - Giuliani 40%
Feingold 49% - Giuliani 43%
Gore 52% - Pataki 42%
Clinton 50% - Pataki 41%
Feingold 48% - Pataki 44%
Gore 54% - Bush 38%
Clinton 52% - Bush 40%
Feingold 50% - Bush 44%
Gore 56% - Santorum 37%
Clinton 54% - Santorum 38%
Feingold 52% - Santorum 41%


Republican Presidential Primaries- National
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 27% ↓ (-3)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 18% ↑ (+5)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 17% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 12% ↓ (-2)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 10% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 7% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2% ↓ (-1)
Others/Undecided- 7% = (+-0)

Republican Michigan Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31% ↓ (-4)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 28% ↓ (+3)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 13% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 11% ↓ (-1)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 8% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 2% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2% = (+-0)
Others/Undecided- 5% ↓ (-1)

Republican Nevada Caucuses
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 24% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 19% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 17% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 16% = (+-0)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 8% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 6% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 4% ↓ (-2)
Others/Undecided- 6% ↓ (-1)

Republican South Carolina Primaries
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 23% ↑ (+1)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 20% = (+-0)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 19% ↑ (+1)
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 18% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 11% ↑ (+3)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0% = (-1)
Others/Undecided- 4% = (-2)

Republican Florida Primaries
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 20%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 15%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 13%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 12%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 1%
Others/Undecided- 5%


Democratic Presidential Primaries- National
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 26% ↓ (-2)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23% = (+-0)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 22% ↑ (+3)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 12% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 8% ↑ (+1)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 3% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 6% = (+-0)

Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22% ↓ (-1)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 20% = (+-0)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 18% ↑ (+2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 6% ↓ (-1)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 4% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 7% ↓ (-1)

Democratic South Carolina Primary
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 29% ↑ (+1)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 22% ↓ (-1)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 16% ↑ (+2)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 12% ↑ (+1)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 7% = (+-0)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 11% ↓ (-2)

[America Needs R'hllor]

The 2008 Election
Part IV- the Road to Super Tuesday


Sources: Wikipedia Commons

Following Iowa and New Hampshire, the battlelines were drawn for the race to survive until Super Tuesday. Each of the remaining candidates needed a win, or a surprisingly good performance, somewhere to keep their chances up. And with Florida and Michigan improperly making their primary much earlier- with reduced delegates and, in the Democratic case, with the voting itself becoming "beauty contests"- the calendar before Super Tuesday was tight. And this year, with many states moving their contests ahead, Super Tuesday was dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday"- almost half the nation was scheduled to vote that day, and it was likely that the race would be decided, or at least solidified, in that day.

A week after the dual upsets of the New Hampshire primary, Michigan voted. On the GOP side, it was a huge sigh of relief for President Giuliani's campaign- he held on in the state and won a narrow victory over challenger George Pataki. On the Democratic side, candidates Al Gore, Russ Feingold and Gary Locke, as well as former candidates Obama, Biden, Richardson and Edwards, withdrew their name from the ballot in accordance with DNC policy, making it purely a beauty contest with no delegates awarded. Nonetheless, the primary was held with Clinton, Napolitano, Bredesen and Gravel on the ballot (along with former candidates Dodd and Kucinich. Gore, Feingold and Locke encouraged their supporters to vote "uncommitted", leading to a landslide Clinton victory, with "uncommitted" at second and Napolitano third.

Republican Michigan Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 32.2% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 30.9%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 17.1%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 8.7%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 8.1%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 2.0%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0.8%
Others- 0.2%

Democratic Michigan Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 51.6% ✓
Uncommitted- 23.5%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 17.0%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 6.0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 1.1%
Others- 0.8%

After that, Republicans were faced with an important couple of contests- the Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina Primary, set to be held on the same day, January 19th. Democrats would have to be satisfied with just their Nevada Caucuses on the same day. With momentum at his back, President Giuliani found mixed results that day- he secured a strong victory in Nevada, but South Carolina proved that it still loved the Bushes as it gave Laura Bush a narrow victory over Rick Santorum. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton proved that she's still in this with a solid win in Nevada, gaining her crucial momentum that her campaign was sorely lacking. Janet Napolitano, banking a lot on the state, manage to eke out a second place showing over Gore, giving her campaign a bit of air.


Senator Clinton declaring victory the morning after the Nevada Caucuses

Republican Nevada Caucuses Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 28.3% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 20.7%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 18.4%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 12.0%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 10.1%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 6.6%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 3.5%
Others- 0.4%

Republican South Carolina Primary Results
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 22.7% ✓
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 22.1%
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 19.6%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 18.9%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 10.5%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.8%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 0.3%
Others- 0.1%

Democratic Nevada Caucuses Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 25.7% ✓
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 22.5%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 21.9%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 8.2%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 1.3%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.0%
Others- 0.1%

Following the results, former President Dick Cheney became the most major Republican dropout as he left the race after banking everytyhing on South Carolina. On the Democratic side, the noteable loser of Nevada, Gary Locke, decided to stay in and wait for more favourable states, possibly on Super Tuesday. Gary Johnson also left the race after a weak result in Nevada, giving a tepid endorsement of Ron Paul, and was rumored to be considering a run for the Libertarian nomination.


Cheney, possibly the most controversial candidate, dropped out after losing South Carolina- but he managed to show that some of the party still had his back, especially after the fall from grace of former President Hastert

A week later, Demcorats held their fifth contest, and one of the most high-profile at that- South Carolina. With black voters holding strong sway in the state's Demcoratic Party, it was considered a black voter referendum of sorts. Supported by Senator Obama and popular in his own right, Al Gore won a strong victory in the state, reaffirming his status as a favourite in the race, while Hillary Clinton came second and Feingold came fourth behind Phil Bredesen, showing a weakness with black voters. 3% of the voters wrote in Barack Obama, showing his lasting popularity in the party and the black community in particular.

Democratic South Carolina Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 30.8% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23.5%
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 16.5%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 14.3%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 9.1%
Senator Barack Obama- 3.0%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 2.6%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.0%
Others- 0.2%

South Carolina took a victim in the Democratic Primaries, too- Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, his blue-dog platform failing to take hold of enough voters. He decided to drop out rather than wait for his state on Super Tuesday, and surprisingly made an endorsement too. But rather than support his homestate favourite Al Gore, Bredesen endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose "folksy populist" campaign was tailor-made to appeal to working class and more moderate voters. Tennesse now became a state many observers were curious about- will it support its former Senator Al Gore, or will it go with the words of its popular Governor and vote Clinton?


The popular Governor of Tennessee dropped out and offered a surprising endorsement of Clinton the day after South Carolina

Three days later, the final pre-Super Tuesday contest was held in Florida. On the Repubican side, this was a state President Giuliani invested a lot in, and it paid off with a strong victory over his closest rival, Laura Bush. George Pataki, despite having the endorsement of the state's Governor, Charlie Crist, came third, closely followed by Rick Santorum. On the Democratic side, it was again a "beauty contest" with no pledged delegates, although the assumption was that both Florida and Michigan would eventually be allowed to seat half their delegates, like in the GOP. Hillary Clinton again ended up with a strong victory over former Vice President Gore, positioning herself strongly before Super Tuesday. Janet Napolitano, showing strength with Hispanic voters, managed to come third, passing Feingold in the vote count.

Republican Florida Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 37.6% ✓
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 26.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 15.5%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 13.8%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.4%
Others- 1.4%

Democratic Florida Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 31.5% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 26.1%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 17.9%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 15.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 7.6%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0.4%
Others- 1.3%

After Florida, there was only one contest held before the Super Tuesday February 5th voting (aside from the Hawaii Republican Caucuses, held for over a week and ending at the 5th)- the Maine Republican Caucuses, held between February 1st - 3rd. It produced an unsurprising result in a victory for George Pataki, with Giuliani second, Paul a surprisingly strong third and Santorum barely registering.

Republican Maine Caucuses Results
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 43.5% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 28.3%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 20.7%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 4.8%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 2.4%
Others- 0.3%

[America Needs R'hllor]

February 4th

"Super Duper Tuesday": As half the nation goes to vote for Presidendial Primaries tomorrow, what should we be watching for?


Pink denotes states that hold contests for both major parties, red denotes contests just for the Republican nomination, blue denotes contests just for the Democratic nomination. Note: the Republican Hawaii Caucuses conclude on Super Tuesday as well

NEW YORK CITY - Tomorrow, we might know who will be the Presidential nominees for the major parties, or at least get much closer to knowing. Following a turbulent election schedule in which many states moved their contests to February 5th to increase their importance in the nominating process, Super Tuesday became a massive affair, also named by pundits "Super Duper Tuesday", "Tsunami Super Tuesday" or "Mega Tuesday". As half the nation votes tomorrow to decide their preferred party's Presidential nominee, what can we expect and what should we watch for?

The Republican Side

Following a shaky performance in the early states, in which he lost Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina but won Michigan, Nevada and Florida, President Rudy Giuliani is preparing for the fight of his life. Whether the split field of challengers against him is a blessing or a curse is up for debate- it's unclear if the Pataki, Bush and Santorum voters would support a consensus challenger such as Jeb Bush or not. But some on the Giuliani team are worried that his opponents could pick off many states in which they have unique appeal. Each of his opponents appeal to an important group of Republican voters- Pataki has the support of moderate Republicans, Santorum has the evangelical conservatives, and Bush is supported by a group of establishment Republican voters and, importantly, donors who are loyal to the late President Bush. Here are some of the most important areas to watch for:

The South- Several southern states with a large conservative, evangelical population are going to vote tomorrow, including Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Tennessee. These states will be a major battleground between Giuliani, who attempts to be the candidate with the broadest appeal, and Santorum, who needs to carry most of these states to stay viable. These states will be a major test in whether Giuliani can put away his challengers.

New York- The Empire State is probably the one with the most focus tomorrow. It's very delegate-rich, and is also the homestate of two bitter rivals- President Giuliani and Governor Pataki. Pataki has the advantage of being a relatively recent Governor, but Giuliani is a "President from New York", as well as a very visible, and popular, former Mayor of New York City, which could give him an advantage over the more lowkey Pataki.

California and Illinois- Two other very delegate-heavy states are California and Illinois. Both are liberal states on the national level, with a sizable moderate Republican voting bloc, and so are expected to be battlegrounds between Pataki and Giuliani. But Santorum is hoping to use that split to sneak ahead of them on the back of a conservative core of voters.

Can Laura Bush win a state- Laura Bush has been finding it hard to find a strong footing. Due to heavy investment and a sympathetic electorate, she managed a victory in South Carolina, but the state considered the most favourable to her, Texas, has weeks to go until it'll vote. She's hoping to win a few states tomorrow- namely, Arizona, Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri.

This is where we believe the race stands ahead of Super Tuesday:

Likely Giuliani: California, New Jersey
Lean Giuliani: Illinois, Missouri, New York
Likely Pataki: Hawaii
Lean Pataki: Massachusetts, Minnesota
Likely Santorum: Alabama
Lean Santorum: Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas
Tossup: Connecticut (Giuliani vs Pataki), Delaware (Giuliani vs Pataki), West Virginia (Giuliani vs Santorum), Oklahoma (Giuliani vs Santorum), North Dakota (Giuliani vs Santorum), Montana (Giuliani vs Santorum), Colorado (Giuliani vs Pataki vs Santorum vs Bush), Utah (Giuliani vs Pataki vs Santorum), Arizona (Giuliani vs Santorum vs Bush), Alaska (Giuliani vs Santorum)

So all in all, tomorrow could vary wildly- it could be a disaster for Giuliani or a sweep, it could be a huge success for Pataki or for Santorum. What is sure is that Bush and Paul don't have much to look forward to.

The Democratic Side

In a multi-candidate field with many success and failure stories, the battlelines are finally drawn ahead of Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton is the chosen candidate of white working class and "blue dog" Democrats, running on a populist rhetoric despite having positions similar to those of Gore or Obama. Gore has consolidated the support of most black voters, as well as the solidly liberal, "mainstream Democrat" voters, and Feingold is the candidate of progressives and young voters. For the other candidates, Janet Napolitano has strong support among Hispanic voters, as well as a dedicated following from some liberal women, while Gary Locke is a favourite of college educated white liberals.

This makes Super Tuesday an interesting affair. Gore is considered the favourite in a myriad of Southern states with a large black population, Clinton is expected to perform strongly in rural states as well as her home region of New York, and Feingold hopes to use his dedicated support base to win the caucus states as well as the more liberal states. Janet Napolitano's hopes are pegged on the southwest, and Gary Locke is hoping to sweep the western and plains contests in an upset, as well as some northeastern states. Here are some places to watch:

Here's how we predict the race to look right now:

Tennessee: A very interesting case we're seein in the Democratic Party is this state. Gore calls it his homestate and represented it for years in the Senate, and also has the support of African American voters in that state, but Clinton had the popular Governor, Phil Bredesen, campaigning for her extensively and has support from ancestral Democratic voters in the state. Who wins this state could very well be an indication of how the night is going for the two leading candidates.

Illinois: A state rich with delegates, it's also a major battleground between Clinton and Gore. Gore has the endorsement of Senator Obama and is strong in Chicago, but clinton is strong downstate and the suburbs, and in a good night for her she'd win the state.

California: This very delegate rich state could be the ultimate test for Gore and Feingold- it's a neutral ground where Clinton, considered by most as the narrow frontrunner, has no advantage. If she wins it, she likely remains the frontrunner, but a victory for Gore could reassure his place at the top, and a win for Feingold could vault him to the top.

Locke and Napolitano: The two more minor candidates have to win a few states to stay viable. While Napolitano is all but assured to win her home state of Arizona, she needs victories in states like New Mexico, Colorado and California, close to her support base of Hispanic voters and the Southwest. Meanwhile, Locke's campaign is on its last legs, and needs a breakthrough. He's contesting states that look favourable to him like California, Colorado, Utah, Connecticut, Delaware and Massachusetts.

Likely Clinton: New York, New Jersey, West Virginia
Lean Clinton: Arkansas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Utah, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska
Likely Gore: Alabama, Georgia
Lean Gore: Illinois
Likely Feingold: Minnesota
Likely Napolitano: Arizona
Tossup: Massachusetts (Clinton vs Gore vs Feingold), Connecticut (Clinton vs Gore), Delaware (Clinton vs Gore), Tennessee (Clinton vs Gore), Colorado (Gore vs Feingold), California (Clinton vs Gore vs Feingold)


Pre-Super Tuesday Polling Update (Feruary 4th, 2008)

General Election Match-Ups:
Gore 53% - Giuliani 41
Clinton 51% - Giuliani 41%
Feingold 50% - Giuliani 45%
Gore 51% - Pataki 42%
Clinton 51% - Pataki 43%
Feingold 48% - Pataki 45%
Gore 54% - Bush 40%
Clinton 52% - Bush 42%
Feingold 49% - Bush 43%
Gore 55% - Santorum 38%
Clinton 55% - Santorum 39%
Feingold 54% - Santorum 40%


Republican Presidential Primaries- National
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31% ↑ (+4)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 22% ↑ (+4)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 20% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% ↑ (+2)
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 7% ↓ (-3)
Others/Undecided- 6% ↓ (-1)


Democratic Presidential Primaries- National
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 29% = (+6)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 26% = (+-0)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 23% ↑ (+1)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 10% ↓ (-2)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 7% ↓ (-1)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 5% ↓ (-1)

[America Needs R'hllor]

SUPER TUESDAY IN AMERICA: SPECIAL COVERAGE

Morning, February 6th, 2008

- President Giuliani declares victory in New York City, calls for rivals to drop out and unite against "dangerous radicals in the Democratic Party"

- Alaska called for Ron Paul, first and only victory for the Texas Congressman so far

- New Mexico called for Al Gore, narrowly beating Governor Napolitano

- BREAKING: Tennessee called for Al Gore, a big moral win for the former VP's camp

- Arizona called for President Giuliani, Laura Bush falls short in "best chance to win a state" during Super Tuesday

- Massachusetts called for Gore in a narrow win over Clinton, Feingold

- HOW DID FEINGOLD DO SO WELL IN CAUCUS STATES? Pundits attempt to explain progressive insurgent's many wins, putting Clinton's campaign on life support

- Sources in Clinton campaign admit Gore "is the frontrunner", no drop-out expected

- BREAKING: Former Washington Governor Gary Locke drops out of the race after not winning any state

- BREAKING: Governor Janet Napolitano to announce that she's leaving the race, no endorsement expected

- Flash polling show Giuliani, Gore surging in the polls, Santorum and Feingold also rise

[America Needs R'hllor]

SUPER TUESDAY: FINAL RESULTS

The Republican Primaries

Giuliani prevails in most delegate-heavy states, Santorum emerges as major rival

The victor of the Republican Primaries in Super Tuesday was, most pundits agree, incumbent President Rudy Giuliani. "He never ran a strong or inspiring campaign and the enthusiasm for him isn't sky-high", one analyst pointed out, "but his rivals were just too weak and divided. It seems like he won out as the default."

Giuliani won strong victories in three of the most delegate-heavy states up yesterday- California, New York and Illinois. He also won most states across the northeast and southwest. Especially significant is the victory over Pataki in New York. Giuliani defeated his bitter in-state rival by a decent margin, which is especially vindicating for him.

But one other candidate could reasonably claim victory- Rick Santorum. Most moderates didn't seem eager to split their votes and jump on the Pataki train, while the pro-Bush establishment's money didn't get the former First Lady significant wins. But Giuliani's weakspot was revealed- his socially moderate views allowed the former Pennsylvania Senator to consolidate a very powerful voting bloc and win a significant number of states, especially in the south and in caucus states. All three of the other candidates are expected to continue their campaigns, now more as protests to the frontrunners than hoping for a real victory, and that foretells is another problem for Giuliani- party unity will be hard, perhaps impossible, to achieve.

Republican Alabama Primary Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 47.5% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 32.9%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 8.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 6.6%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.4%
Others- 0.3%

Republican Alaska Caucuses Results
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 32.3% ✓
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 30.8%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 22.6%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 9.5%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 3.8%
Others- 1.0%

Republican Arizona Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 34.7% ✓
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 33.8%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 15.4%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 11.6%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.3%
Others- 0.2%

Republican Arkansas Primary Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 46.3% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31.0%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 9.7%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 6.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.5%
Others- 0.6%

Republican California Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 41.8% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 23.7%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14.3%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 12.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.0%
Others- 2.3%

Republican Colorado Caucuses Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 36.3% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 24.5%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 16.8%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 11.9%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 10.5%
Others- 0.0%

Republican Connecticut Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 32.5% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 31.4%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 16.7%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 15.1%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.0%
Others- 0.3%

Republican Delaware Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 35.2% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 32.0%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 16.6%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 13.1%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 2.9%
Others- 0.2%

Republican Georgia Primary Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 34.4% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 32.8%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 20.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 7.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 3.8%
Others- 0.8%

Republican Hawaii Caucuses Results
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 51.3% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 24.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 18.5%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 3.8%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 1.5%
Others- 0.0%

Republican Illinois Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 43.4% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 30.0%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 18.2%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 6.3%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 1.7%
Others- 0.4%

Republican Massachusetts Primary Results
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 45.7% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 35.0%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 8.5%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 5.7%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5.0%
Others- 0.1%

Republican Minnesota Caucuses Results
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 35.6% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 33.4%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 21.5%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 6.1%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 3.4%
Others- 0.0%

Republican Missouri Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 38.6% ✓
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 34.8%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14.8%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 5.3%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.8%
Others- 1.7%

Republican Montana Caucuses Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 40.0% ✓
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 27.5%
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 23.0%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 5.9%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 3.6%
Others- 0.0%

Republican New Jersey Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 53.9% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 22.5%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 12.1%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 9.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 1.3%
Others- 0.3%

Republican New York Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 43.9% ✓
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 37.8%
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 11.4%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 3.4%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 2.5%
Others- 1.0%

Republican North Dakota Caucuses Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 38.8% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 25.8%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 24.1%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 8.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 2.5%
Others- 0.5%

Republican Oklahoma Primary Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 36.6% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 30.8%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 23.3%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.3%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 4.2%
Others- 0.8%

Republican Tennessee Primary Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 36.8% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 27.1%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 16.7%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 13.4%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 4.8%
Others- 1.2%

Republican Utah Primary Results
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 27.3% ✓
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 23.8%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 21.4%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 18.6%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 8.9%
Others- 0.0%

Republican West Virginia Caucuses Results
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 41.7% ✓
President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 38.8%
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 11.4%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 5.9%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 2.2%
Others- 0.0%

The Democratic Primaries

Gore emerges as frontrunner on Super Tuesday as Feingold exceeds expectations; Napolitano, Locke drop out

In a still-hotly contested nomination, Democrats present a much clearer picture with three candidates remaining after Super Tuesday. Al Gore, with strong wins in the South and West, managed to emerge as the frontrunner, with Hillary Clinton losing many states she was expected to win to Russ Feingold, especially Caucus states where he had exceptional strength. The progressive insurgent officially made himself part of a three-way race, using his strong grassroots support and enthusiasm to do much better than pundits thought he would. The race is definitely Gore's to win now- and Clinton will probably need a miracle to come back, having won only a few states, albeit large ones, last night.

An especially interesting result came out of Tennessee- despite having the endorsement of Governor Bredesen and the support of many state legislators, Clinton lost to Al Gore, who used to serve as the state's Senator and had very strong support from the state's African American community.

The other two candidates, Gary Locke and Janet Napolitano, could not gain the upsets they hoped for and dropped out of the race this morning. Napolitano, despite running a strong and lauded campaign, took only her homestate of Arizona and the territory of American Samoa, while Locke's wonky campaign earned him no victories.

Al Gore, many agree, seems to be emerging as a consensus candidate- decently liberal but with a moderate image, very experienced in a time the nation is clamoring for a stable hand, and a known face. Between Clinton's populist campaign, boosted by blue dogs, and Feingold's very progressive, youth-boosted campaign, Gore seems to hold a strong segement of Democratic voters who don't particularly lean in either direction. He also has a lot to be grateful for to Barack Obama, whose endorsement made Gore the solid leader among black voters, beating off Clinton and winning many crucial states and, importantly, the image of a minority-supported candidate. But Clinton is still not to be underestimated, as her post-New Hampshire comeback showed, and Feingold is gaining steam, so Gore will have to work hard to beat off these challenges.

Democratic Alabama Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 48.3% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 22.1%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 15.4%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 8.7%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.5%
Others- 2.0%

Democratic Alaska Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 33.7% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23.9%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 18.4%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 16.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 5.5%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 1.4%
Others- 0.3%

Democratic American Samoa Caucuses Results
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 46.2% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 19.7%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 17.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 13.1%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 7.4%
Others- 0.0%

Democratic Arizona Primary Results
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 53.6% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 17.3%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 14.4%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 11.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 2.7%
Others- 0.5%

Democratic Arkansas Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 38.8% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 31.3%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 18.2%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 6.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.9%
Others- 1.3%

Democratic California Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 28.5% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 26.8%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 25.3%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 12.0%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 6.5%
Others- 0.9%

Democratic Colorado Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 30.3% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 23.0%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 18.7%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 16.1%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 11.6%
Others- 0.3%

Democratic Connecticut Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 37.5% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 31.6%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 22.3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 5.0%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 2.9%
Others- 0.7%

Democratic Delaware Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 40.7% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 30.6%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 20.8%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4.1%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.2%
Others- 0.6%

Democratic Georgia Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 41.6% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 27.7%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 17.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 7.6%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.2%
Others- 2.1%

Democratic Idaho Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 38.5% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 29.0%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 20.3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 9.5%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 2.4%
Others- 0.3%

Democratic Illinois Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 48.6% ✓
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.4%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 17.5%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 5.9%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 4.7%
Others- 3.9%

Democratic Kansas Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 41.1% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 25.0%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 21.5%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 10.3%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.9%
Others- 0.2%

Democratic Massachusetts Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 30.3% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 30.1%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 28.4%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 5.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 4.3%
Others- 1.1%

Democratic Minnesota Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 55.3% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 16.1%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 15.9%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 8.3%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.8%
Others- 0.6%

Democratic Missouri Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 34.5% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 33.1%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 22.4%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 6.8%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 2.3%
Others- 0.9%

Democratic New Jersey Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 46.4% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 20.3%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.8%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 9.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.8%
Others- 0.5%

Democratic New Mexico Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 29.2% ✓
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 27.8%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 25.4%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 13.6%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.8%
Others- 0.2%

Democratic New York Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 54.5% ✓
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.7%
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 18.9%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3.7%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 2.8%
Others- 0.4%

Democratic North Dakota Caucuses Results
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 49.3% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 22.5%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 21.4%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.9%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 2.6%
Others- 0.3%

Democratic Oklahoma Primary Results
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 34.2% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 32.7%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 19.5%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 11.2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 1.8%
Others- 0.6%

Democratic Tennessee Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 40.5% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 38.0%
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 11.7%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 3.1%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 2.8%
Others- 3.9%

Democratic Utah Primary Results
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 31.6% ✓
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 28.1%
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 24.9%
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 8.7%
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 6.5%
Others- 0.2%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Folks, any remaining interest in the TL continuing?

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

Folks, any remaining interest in the TL continuing?

Yes