The 2008 Election
Part I- August to September (2007)
Sources: Wikipedia Commons
July 30th: Just two days after his swearing-in, Rep. Waters calls on President Giuliani to resign and let Speaker Pelosi take over
August 1st: Former President Hastert releases statement withdrawing his candidacy for the Presidency, affirms that he "will not run this year for the good of the country"
August 4th: President Giuliani officially announces candidacy, declares that he will "lead America to prosperity and restore our standing in the world"
August 5th: Who will Bushworld put up? Speculation abounds that pro-Bush donors, consultants are preparign to challenge Giuliani; Rice, Powell rule themselves out
August 7th: Democrats hold another Presidential debate; Gore, Obama, Napolitano shine
August 10th: RNC Chairman Ken Blackwell announces resignation, citing "personal reasons"
August 11th: Shocking observers, Jeb Bush says he will not run for President, saying "it's not the right time for my family". Speculation now centering on former President George H.W. Bush, First Lady Laura Bush
August 12th: New poll shows former President Bush leading President Giuliani 25%-22%; Laura bush trailing 24%-17%
August 13th: President Giuliani receives another challenger- former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson running on a libertarian-Republican platform, claims Rep. Paul "doesn't represent liberty on all levels, including civic"
August 14th: Giuliani picks non-controversial former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore to serve as RNC Chair; expected to win
August 16th: BREAKING: former First Lady Laura Bush to challenge President Giuliani, promising "dignity and stability" and focusing on "bringing everyone up via quality education"
August 17th: Potential heavyweights John McCain, Mike Huckabee not running for President
August 19th: Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, defeated in 2006, challenges Giuliani from the right promising to combat 'crisis of immorality': "I will cleanse the nation"
August 20th: Neil Abercrombie not running for Democratic nomination, praises "wonderful field of excellent potential nominees"
August 21st: Two new candidates announce Presidential campaigns for GOP: Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and California Representative Duncan hunter, two staunch conservatives challenging Giuliani from the right
August 22nd: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney "not pursuing the Presidency this year"
August 24th: BREAKING: former President Richard Cheney announces shocking candidacy, claims Hastert forced him out and warns Americans of "emboldened enemies everywhere"
August 27th: Moderate former Governor of New York George Pataki announces Presidential campaign, setting up struggle between two New York rivals
August 28th: Colorado's Tom Tancredo announces Presidential campaign, focuses on anti-immigration rhetoric
September 1st: Fmr. Ambassador Alan Keyes to run for President
With the resignation of President Hastert, a new chapter started in these tumultous years of American politics- the 2008 Presidential election went into full gears. Now that President Hastert was disgraced, both major parties were sure to have competitive primaries- and while the Democratic field was presumably mostly finalized, on the GOP side things were about to get especially wild.
The Republican National Committee had to rush to allow a fair and orderly nominating contest, knowing that many more candidates would have to announce now and scheduling more debates for the next weeks and months. They also had their own shakeup- RNC Chairman Blackwell, an avid Hastert backer, quietly resigned his post and was replaced by Giuliani's choice- former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, who served in the role in 2001. Luckily, the final date for submitting signatures to gain ballot access was still some time away, but the candidates had to join the race as fast as possible in order to get their names out, start fundraising and gather petitions for ballot access. And so it would be.
Former President Hastert was the first big name to announce his intentions. In a press release from his home in Illinois, Hastert said that he would "not run for President this year, for the sake of the country's unity". That was effectively a suspension of his existing campaign, making Hastert the first drop-out of the 2008 cycle. There was heavy speculation that President Giuliani would grant him a pardon, ala-Ford and Nixon, but Giuliani decided not to do that- at least yet- due to the former President's deep unpopularity.
President Giuliani was the next to announce his intentions- he was running. Giuliani was rumoured to be considering a run for 2008 even before becoming President after an odd turn of events, so not many observers were surprised that he was prepared to use the advantage of incumbency- even lessened, serving only for a few months until the first primaries and serving under a scandal-riddened administration before that. With it, he could have a much better chance of winning the primary than in an open field, but he was still not going to have an easy time. One other candidate- Rep. Ron Paul- was already running and gaining some traction with anti-war right-wing youth. And soon, more were expected to join.
But there was more than one major hurdle for serious Republican candidates to enter the primary this year- the other was that polls showed overwhelming odds against their party. Many politicians were reluctant to throw away their future chances.
One powerful front of the Republican Party was preparing to set up a challenge against the President- Bush loyalists. Those who adored the deceased President and came to resent the ones who followed were aching to unseat Giuliani and present their own candidate for President. The most widely-speculated name was that of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, but he eventually decided that it was not the right year and withdrew his name from consideration. The next names that were thrown around were quite peculiar- former President George H.W. Bush, who was eligible for another term, and former First Lady Laura Bush. Eventually, pro-Bush aides and donors settled on their candidate- Laura Bush. She announced a campaign based on continuing her late husband's legacy, focusing on education solutions and giving America "a stable, respectable administration that President Giuliani and the Democrats cannot provide". She accused Giuliani of staying quiet on Hastert and his transgressions for too, and immediately earned endorsements from Jeb Bush, George H.W. Bush and former First Lady Barbara Bush.
Many other potential candidates backed away from a run. Senator John McCain, long considered someone who wanted to run, decided to avoid a nearly-inevitably losing campaign and was said to set his eyes on 2012, despite his advanced age by then. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was considered a candidate who almost threw his hat in the ring, fearing irrelevancy by 2012, but stayed out rather than challenge an incumbent in an uncomfortable year and decided to promote himself in other ways. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee decided not to run too, choosing to pursue a Senate campaign instead against Mark Pryor.
With these heavyweights cleared, others chose to attempt an unlikely run. One of those was former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who was considered a darling of the religious right, being young and passionately conservative, before losing his 2006 reelection. Attempting to shed the loser's image, Santorum blamed the national environment created by "immoral activities that President Hastert allowed to go unpunished" and promised that he was the one "to cleanse the party and the country", touting his previous victories in Pennsylvania, a Democratic-leaning state.
It wasn't over yet. Anothe candidate threw his hat in the ring, a shocking candidacy not many people expected- former President Dick Cheney. Claiming that Hastert got him to resign in order to become President and promoting his candidacy as "someone who knows the damn job" and will be able to "set America back on course and protect us from emboldened enemies". The latter line seemed to resonate especially- many Americans saw North Korean missile tests, Russian training exercises, Chinese movements in the South China Sea and an increasingly robust Iranian nuclear program and felt that the political crisis was putting the country in a dangerous position.
And then, from the more moderate side of the party, Giuliani was challenged by a surprising candidate- the former Governor of his own state, George Pataki. The two had a famously strenuous relationship during their time as respective Governor and Mayor of New York, but it seems now like the rumours of an open dislike are correct- Pataki, a socially liberal, environmentalist and tax-cutting Republican, opened his campaign by attacking Giuliani for "collaborating with the worst forces of party over country and throwing away the values we believe in" and promoted himself as a "safe, stable and experienced hand to show proper stewardship as a contrast to both the Democratic Party's rising radicalism and the forces of party over country among us".
Other candidates with less of a standing entered later- ultra conserative Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, challenging Santorum for the religious right lane and adding a very conservative fiscal policy; former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, running on a more socially libertarian platform than Ron Paul; U.S. Rep. and immigration hardliner Tom Tancredo of Colorado; conservative U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California; and former Ambassador Alan Keyes, another hardline social conservative.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side there wasn't much development. The party held several debates until September, without much of a change. Al Gore was considered solid, improving on the memort of his 2000 campaign and showing more charisma; Hillary Clinton did as well as could be expected; Barack Obama continued showing his easy charisma and doing well; Russ Feingold didn't do badly but seemed to be more of a presence on the campaign trail than the debate stage; Janet Napolitano had several solid and improving showings; Gary Locke did well but didn't seem to shine on the big stage as he did in the undercard debate; John Edwards seemed to be overshadowed by candidates like Obama and Feingold; while Joe Biden, Phil Bredesen and Bill Richardson mostly faded. In the undercard debates, no one really moved, including Evan Bayh, who found himself out of the main debates.
Additionally, the performance of Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie when he helped Robert Seiki speak out against Hastert earned him much fame in Democratic circles, even earning him high numbers in Presidential polls. But eventually, he put the speculations to bed- probably calming Senators Feingold and Obama, whose more progressive base of voters he was chipping into in polls.
Key Polling (September 2007)President Rudy Giuliani job approval (September 1st)Disapprove- 55% ↓ (-3)Approve- 36% ↑ (+5)Unsure- 9% ↓ (-2)
Speaker Nancy Pelosi approval (September 1st)Approve- 49% ↓ (-3)Disapprove- 44% ↑ (+3)Unsure- 7% = (+-0)
Direction of the Country (September 1st)Wrong Track- 76% ↓ (-7)Right Track- 17% ↑ (+6)Unsure- 9% ↑ (+1)
Who will you support in the 2008 Presidential election? (Giuliani)Generic Democrat- 53% ↓ (-2)President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 37% ↑ (+3)Others\Undecided- 10% ↓ (-1)
Who will you support in the 2008 Presidential election? (Other Republican)Generic Democrat- 48% ↓ (-6)Generic Republican- 41% ↑ (+5)Others\Undecided- 11% ↑ (+1)
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 2008?President Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)- 31% ↑ (+7)
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R-NY)- 17%
Fmr. First Lady Laura Bush (R-TX)- 14% ↑ (+8)
Fmr. President Dick Cheney (R-WY)- 9% ↑ (+5)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)- 7%
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)- 5% ↑ (+2)
Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS)- 3%
U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)- 2%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)- 2%
U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)- 1%
Others/Undecided- 9% ↑ (+2)
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 2008?Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)- 24% ↑ (+2)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)- 23% ↓ (-1)
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)- 16% ↑ (+1)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)- 12% ↑ (+2)
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)- 8% ↑ (+3)
Fmr. Governor Gary Locke (D-WA)- 3% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC)- 3% ↓ (-1)
Governor Phil Bredesen (D-TN)- 2% = (+-0)
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)- 2% = (+-0)
Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM)- 1% = (+-0)
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)- 1% = (+-0)
Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)- 0% = (-1)
Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT)- 0% = (+-0)
Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA)- 0% = (+-0)
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK)- 0% = (+-0)
Others\Undecided- 5% ↑ (+1)
