2020 if it was a 269-269 tie?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2020 if it was a 269-269 tie?
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Author Topic: 2020 if it was a 269-269 tie?  (Read 712 times)
Dude of the Flowers
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« on: July 10, 2022, 03:00:14 PM »

I think Trump would have won a 269-269 tie in 2020, where he won Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona.

The Republicans had more state delegations in the House, so Trump would win. I don't think any Republicans in the house would oppose him. Maybe Katko, but even then I doubt it.

As for the Senate picking the VP, Loeffler would have still been a Senator while Perdue would not have been. Thus, I think it would be a 51-48 vote for Pence over Harris. This of course is assuming Murkowski and Romney still fall in line for Pence, which would have been a much easier pill for them to swallow than for Trump.

What do you think?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2022, 03:12:51 PM »

No doubt Trump would have been reelected by the House via state delegations.

The only potentially interesting question is whether the Democrats still manage to win the Georgia runoffs in that scenario. I guess not, at least Perdue would have won outright by clearing 50%, becoming the 51st vote to reelect Pence. If Warnock and Ossoff still win and nothing else changes, it gets more tricky because the vice president would probably not have a tie-breaking vote to put himself back in. However, I could see Republicans striking some sort of deal with Joe Manchin for his vote and avoid a potential stalemate (although having no vice president wouldn't bother ongoing government business unless the president is incapable of exercising his duties).
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Dude of the Flowers
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2022, 03:16:40 PM »

No doubt Trump would have been reelected by the House via state delegations.

The only potentially interesting question is whether the Democrats still manage to win the Georgia runoffs in that scenario. I guess not, at least Perdue would have won outright by clearing 50%, becoming the 51st vote to reelect Pence. If Warnock and Ossoff still win and nothing else changes, it gets more tricky because the vice president would probably not have a tie-breaking vote to put himself back in. However, I could see Republicans striking some sort of deal with Joe Manchin for his vote and avoid a potential stalemate (although having no vice president wouldn't bother ongoing government business unless the president is incapable of exercising his duties).
It actually wouldn't matter who wins with the Georgia runoffs, since Loeffler would still be serving for the contingent election and Perdue wouldn't be, thus leaving 51 Republicans and 48 Democrats, the same as there were for the January 6 count.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2022, 12:40:37 PM »

This is actually really interesting because Trump cannot win in the House without Liz Cheney's vote.  Would Trump be patient enough not to raise hell for 2 months about how he actually won Pennsylvania until it was "rigged against him"?  If he gets too out of line with anything approaching the IRL Dec 2020-Jan 2021 situation, it's clear she would snub him. 
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