Why was New Hampshire so close?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Clinton won that state by only 2,736 votes or 0.37%. Every county swung towards Trump, and only the two "big" ones trended towards her.

The interesting thing about that race was the senatorial election held at the same time, which delivered an even closer result (with one more county going to the Democrat).
While New Hampshire swung heavily towards the GOP in the presidential election, each county swung away from the Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte and even trended towards the Democratic contender Maggie Hassan.

[MT Treasurer]

Option 2.

Anyway, I’ve been asking myself this since Nov. 8, 2016. The Clintons are beloved in the state, Democrats did extremely will even in 2014, they consider Trump a misogynist, etc. When I realized how close it really was on election night, I knew Trump had already won the entire election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Option 2.

Anyway, I’ve been asking myself this since Nov. 8, 2016. The Clintons are beloved in the state, Democrats did extremely will even in 2014, they consider Trump a misogynist, etc. When I realized how close it really was on election night, I knew Trump had already won the entire election.

I'd rather say opt. 3 or 4.
Obama and Romney were both obviously perfect fits for that state, but Obama nevertheless won it by over 5%.
If there is an utterly one-sided swing, one may conclude that the candidate who has profited from the swing is the real deal, or both candidates put potential voters off.

[Mr. Smith]

Opt. 3

Trump's populist edge made him great for the rural areas, and his decidedly less Southern flavor made him workable in the Boston burbs.

Really, those factors combined should've put him over the top.

That and the state hasn't voted to the left of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan for like...ever. And if Michigan and Pennsylvania were supposed to go to Hillary by 2 or 3...

Factor that with Molly Kelly losing 2018, and it really doesn't make sense at all that he lost.

[MT Treasurer]

Opt. 3

Trump's populist edge made him great for the rural areas, and his decidedly less Southern flavor made him workable in the Boston burbs.

Really, those factors combined should've put him over the top.

That and the state hasn't voted to the left of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan for like...ever. And if Michigan and Pennsylvania were supposed to go to Hillary by 2 or 3...

Factor that with Molly Kelly losing 2018, and it really doesn't make sense at all that he lost.

Keep in mind that gubernatorial elections ≠ federal elections. NH generally doesn’t vote against pro-choice Democratic white women for Senate or president, and even Sununu would have never been elected if he wasn’t pro-choice. The state is very liberal when it comes to social issues (and increasingly on economic issues as well).

[Hydera]

Option 2.

Anyway, I’ve been asking myself this since Nov. 8, 2016. The Clintons are beloved in the state, Democrats did extremely will even in 2014, they consider Trump a misogynist, etc. When I realized how close it really was on election night, I knew Trump had already won the entire election.

I have a feeling that New Hampshire being a college educated bastion who likes more respectable candidates was overstated. A lot of people in New Hampshire are middle class but on 2016 exit polls the amount of people who said the economy was not good+poor was 56%.

Plus a lot of suburbanites in the state came from Massachusetts to escape higher taxes there and were going to vote for trump just because of his promise to lower taxes even if they were college grads.

Plus the margin of those who said trump was untrustworthy was -26 but for hillary it was -28 meanwhile hassan had a favorable rating of +3 and ayotte was -4.

[Fuzzy Bear]

New Hampshire is a small state that tries to function as a tax haven.  As such, it has a decent number of socially moderate to liberal types who are not receptive to high tax policies.

Never underestimate the power of a tax issue to motivate Republican voters, especially in a place like NH.

[DPKdebator]

New Hampshire is a small state that tries to function as a tax haven.  As such, it has a decent number of socially moderate to liberal types who are not receptive to high tax policies.

Never underestimate the power of a tax issue to motivate Republican voters, especially in a place like NH.

Around here, New Hampshire definitely has a reputation for being a place where you can buy stuff with fewer taxes because of their 0% sales tax (and also get recreational-use fireworks, which are banned in MA but legal in NH).

[morgankingsley]

Out of the options in the poll, New Hampshire was just a bad fit for both and it was a battle on which one was less so

[Kingpoleon]

Anyone else remember Indy Rep telling us that it was so inelastic that even though it was so class, it had always been safe Clinton?

[Mr. Smith]

What's more interesting is Gore lost the state with roughly the same map.

[darklordoftech]

In the 90s, New Hampshire was a “rust belt” state and a bastion of paleoconservatism. It was only in the 9/11 era that it became a blue state.

[VPH]

In the 90s, New Hampshire was a “rust belt” state and a bastion of paleoconservatism. It was only in the 9/11 era that it became a blue state.

How was it a bastion of paleoconservatism? Sure, it elected Bob Smith and Pat Buchanan did well there but was it really strong for that strain of thought beyond them?