Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

It's amazing that Democrats might win Ozaukee before they win Delaware in Ohio.

Delaware still probably flips first. Trump only won it by 7, while Ozaukee was still Trump+12.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think we should debate whether or not The next Democrat to win a presidential election carries Ozaukee County.

If Biden’s re-elected he probably won’t carry Ozaukee.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

Kelly…Mark…heh.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

Don't you get tired of this?

I've gone back and forth between thinking he's a concern trolling doomer and that he's sincere, but extraordinarly bad at political prediction. 

Or he’s just a pessimist.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

Dems have won similar races when turnout is favorable to them.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the GOP moves towards impeachment Dems should definitely move quickly to recall Republicans legislators. With a focus on Dan Knodl who barely won his seat in a special earlier this year. If Knodl if recalled Rs lose their supermajority in the Senate and ability to convict and remove any official.

Also, Rob Hutton.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly I wouldn’t put it past the Senate to power grab. LeMaheiu said he won’t move forward with impeaching, but that wouldn’t stop Vos from doing anything, and if they really thought it would benefit them, they would do it. The maps are so rigged that they won’t really pay a price.

It’s a bit of an interesting time.

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-impeachment-9b28383d30371c8c109b644f9b9a8d72

Except it won't benefit them. If they try to stonewall there will be a lawsuit and they will be ordered to hold a trial. If they convict her Evers picks a replacement. its a no win situation for them and they anger many people in the process.

From what I read if there’s a vacancy before December 1 there’s a special in April.

[Tekken_Guy]

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067

So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.

[Tekken_Guy]

The group that is trying to recall Vos announced they do have enough signatures to force a recall. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-speaker-recall-robin-vos-c12e8391c9e254327c5de344b640d067

So how does the recall election work? Can Vos run in it?

Unless the GOP legislature changed it recently, it's just a regular election in the middle of the term. Vos can run in it, but he's probably going to have to face a primary first with the Trump-preferred candidate.

This could backfire if he loses the primary or the general. It's very possible a MAGA legislator gets the speakership.

Vos is safe in a general.

Even under the new maps? Could he lose a primary?

Yes he could lose a primary.