Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Koharu]

Honestly, the coverage and campaigning in this campaign didn't start early enough.

I went as a SVD to nursing homes in my community to get the votes of those who can't get out to vote. We went out about a month before the election so that we could also register new voters if anyone wanted to register or update their address etc. No one knew anything about the candidates and most of them declined to vote this time around.

Even Wisconsin Public Radio didn't start taking about the race until about two weeks before it happened. I got a whole bunch of texts asking me to turn out for the election, but they were all within a week of the election. The first debate was March 15, a little over two weeks before the election, and the second was March 26, exactly a week before. In my precinct, we only had 120 absentee ballots out of 1500 total ballots, so turn out for early voting was pretty low.

As much as people hate election coverage, it sends the needs to be more coverage earlier or at least more reminders to vote that aren't last minute to actually get people to turn out.

Madison was helped by having the mayoral race. Since it was also only the supreme court at the state level, a lot of people just couldn't be bothered to turn out. The only other things on the ballot here were uncontested school board elections. I'm sure it was the same in many other communities.

All that to say that this election shouldn't be seen as some sort of pattern-setting election. I am horrified at what this means for the state supreme court, but as an indicator of future election results, this election is meaningless.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1547945468507721728

lol there is a gas station kind of close to that Hooters, but not close enough that one could confuse one for the other. There's a (former) Hardee's and road in between. Ramthun is just... ick. So glad to see he's getting very little support.

I think Kleefisch would be stronger in the GE based on name recognition alone. However, there's a lot of advertisement fodder in her changing her views to be more "Trumpian" over the past year. There's a video of an interview from September 2021 of her simply stating she believes Biden won Wisconsin, but now she's joined in the "it was rigged" stuff. That's just one super accessible issue where she's flipped to appeal to Trump's fans.

[Koharu]

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.

[Koharu]

Are these two debating?

https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1581072628403404803

[Koharu]

(snip)

This is getting kinda old, is it not. Republicans were caught saying the same thing after the 2010 elections and look what happened shortly after.

Wisconsin's legislature passed several bills in their last session that would negatively affect voter turnout. The only reason they are not law now is because Tony Evers vetoed them.

The climate of the country is nothing like 2010. The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act & upheld Wisconsin's gerrymandered districts. There is a significant portion of Americans who no longer trust elections in this country. Wisconsin has a decent collection of those folks, and they are very vocal and pushing things in the state GOP. Michels is courting them.

This is nothing like what was being claimed in 2010.

And, to be completely forthright, winning in 2010 did mean that the WI GOP is much more likely to win congressional and state legislature districts. They weren't lying about their goals then, either.

[Koharu]

Dane: Turnout Percentage 78.1% with 96.7% of Precincts Reporting
https://elections.countyofdane.com/Election-Result/145

My fav:
Dane Co Ref #3 (Repeal abortion ban)
Yes 85.4% 247,035
No 14.6%    42,113
96.7% of Precincts Reporting

[Koharu]

[edited out bad math]

It looks like SoS may be recounted (because we absolutely need another, sigh). I wonder if Loudenbeck will let it go since there's no chance of the SoS getting increased duties (esp. election related) now.

La Follette: 1,265,559
Loudenbeck: 1,258,516
(Libertarian & Green candidates got about 95k votes between them)

[Koharu]

This chart is cool.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1644158211103006720

[Koharu]

I mean, this is what the WI GOP is currently capable of, in regards to impeachments (in this case, against Meghan Wolfe, current administrator of the Wisconsin Elections Commission):

The impeachment resolution, put forward last month by Republican Reps. Janel Brandtjen of Menomonee Falls, Scott Allen of Waukesha, Elijah Behnke of Oconto, Ty Bodden of Hilbert and Chuck Wichgers of Muskego, claims Wolfe was directly responsible for decisions made by elections commissioners and falsely ties her to debunked election lies.

All 15 impeachment articles contain misleading or false claims about how elections administration works in Wisconsin.

The five Republicans who put forth the impeachment resolution did not respond to a detailed request for comment asking them to explain their claims.

Article is here, though I'm pretty sure it'll have a paywall (I'm a subscriber so I'm not totally sure).

Since Janet hasn't even really been able to do her job yet, I don't see WIGOP being able to do any better in making a case for her impeachment. Vos is also running up against issues with trying to run his impeachment panel in private.


As for the early processing absentee ballots bill, it's got some poison pills. Note that it doesn't say municipalities may count absentee ballots early, but that they must. There's some other weirdness, too. This Dane county clerk explains it briefly:

https://twitter.com/badachie/status/1706758678471159818

[Koharu]

Vos says he won’t move on impeachment. Likely can’t get the votes/thinks he’ll get that party destroyed over it.

Sounds like that was about Wolfe, not Judge Janet.

https://twitter.com/SaraMDNews/status/1710035625754144858?s=20

Not hugely surprising, since Vos has distanced himself politically from the Janel and the other Big Lie Republicans.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1710473776373141664?s=20

Appendix B of Protasiewicz's order in the motion to recuse is the full text of Prosser's letter to explain why he denied a request for recusal. You can read all of Protasiewicz's order here.

This line, though, feels like the core of her statement:

Recusal decisions are controlled by the law. They are not a matter of personal preference. If precedent requires it, I must recuse. But if precedent does not warrant recusal, my oath binds me to participate. As Justice Alito has emphasized: "When there is no sound reason for a Justice to recuse, the Justice has a duty to sit." That is true even when a case is controversial, or when my decision may upset those who would rather I step aside. Respect for the law must always prevail. Allowing politics or pressure to sway my decision would betray my oath and destroy judicial independence.

[Koharu]

Hearing for the case will be on 11/21.

If anyone else was unsure of what this referred to (I was), it's the redistricting challenge. Quote below is from the AP article that Gass linked just above. :)

The Supreme Court on Friday, in agreeing to take the redistricting challenge, said it would only consider legal questions related to contiguity of districts and separation of powers questions. It set oral arguments for Nov. 21.