Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI IS LEAN D WITHOUT JOHNSON AND 2028HE WILL LOSE

[wbrocks67]

Kelly & Republicans getting extremely desperate at this point - cooking up literally fake stories (check the responses that out them in DMs)

https://twitter.com/wisconsin_now/status/1636390310422134787

[Lief 🗽]

A sampling of the ads Protasiewicz is running.

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1633929574328291328?s=20

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1633987391177236482?s=20

Wow, these ads are BEAUTIFUL! Can we please promote Ben Wikler and his team to running the DNC once they have saved Wisconsin from the GOP?

[MaxQue]

A sampling of the ads Protasiewicz is running.

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1633929574328291328?s=20

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1633987391177236482?s=20

Wow, these ads are BEAUTIFUL! Can we please promote Ben Wikler and his team to running the DNC once they have saved Wisconsin from the GOP?

No. The DNC is being run for the benefit of the friends of Jim Clyburn at the moment.

[Duke of York]

Kelly & Republicans getting extremely desperate at this point - cooking up literally fake stories (check the responses that out them in DMs)

https://twitter.com/wisconsin_now/status/1636390310422134787

Their internal polling must show them down by a lot if this is what they are restoring too.

[Gass3268]

Kelly & Republicans getting extremely desperate at this point - cooking up literally fake stories (check the responses that out them in DMs)

https://twitter.com/wisconsin_now/status/1636390310422134787

https://twitter.com/nonalignedem/status/1636525186785607685?s=20

A local conservative talk radio guy in Milwaukee has been actively talking on twitter about needing to start a disinformation campaign too. Straight up advocating for spreading lies. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1636077638782537729?s=20

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1636077638782537729?s=20

Senator Richard Mourdock agrees.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1636077638782537729?s=20

This isn't a good way to quell voter's concerns about abortion in the state.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1636780077756170245?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1636780077756170245?s=20

That’s sad, he’s the last of the La Follettes.

I also just realized Godlewski lost re-election

Edit: I was wrong she didn’t run for re-election as others have pointed out

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So....why? He is 82, but he also just ran for another term and was just three months in...seems weird to run at all.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1636780077756170245?s=20

That’s sad, he’s the last of the La Follettes.

I also just realized Godlewski lost re-election

She didn't. She ran for Senate but dropped out, and thus didn't run for re-election at all.

[windjammer]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

[Oryxslayer]

So....why? He is 82, but he also just ran for another term and was just three months in...seems weird to run at all.

Either something came up suddenly - a not all that unlikely occurrence when you are 80+ -  or he actually was a team player and in the face of what appeared to be a poor national environment, he ran again deeming it more likely for the Dems to win the office with him on the ballot (reminder that the legislature had plans to empower the SoS if the GOP won it) than without.

[Spectator]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

Not gas’s, but I’d bet money in the Democrat. Democrats do super well in specials in Wisconsin, almost every time. They won a Trump+17 seat by double digits in a special a few years ago, and another Trump seat later that year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hahaha what is this

https://twitter.com/JusticeDanKelly/status/1636849561258868736?t=gQLBlpcwgE6AyQ-...

[Ferguson97]

Hahaha what is this

https://twitter.com/JusticeDanKelly/status/1636849561258868736

A very pathetic reference to the Willie Horton ad.

[Nyvin]

Hahaha what is this

https://twitter.com/JusticeDanKelly/status/1636849561258868736?t=gQLBlpcwgE6AyQ-...

This is an old ad he aired back when they ran against each other in 1988. I guess he kept the VHS tape, good for him.

(joking)

[Mr. Matt]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1636780077756170245?s=20

That’s sad, he’s the last of the La Follettes.

I also just realized Godlewski lost re-election

To clarify, Doug La Follette is really only tangentially related to the main La Follette family, Wiki sez "His great-grandfather has been described as an uncle of Robert "Fighting Bob" La Follette" and that "Doug is a third cousin of Bronson [La Follette, grandson of Robert Sr.]." (link)

Also Godlewski didn't lose reelection, she went on an abortive U.S. Senate run in 2022 and wasn't seeking reelection to her Treasurer position (unless you're referring to 2026).

[Gass3268]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

[Pollster]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout will be higher than 22 because it's a Prez race not Midterm even if it's the same 113 voters Da are favoredwjite females vote more D in Prez than Midterm that's why FL is trending bluer not redder

[Tekken_Guy]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

[Pollster]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

Dems have won similar races when turnout is favorable to them.