Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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  Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY  (Read 161010 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #1625 on: August 14, 2022, 12:23:52 PM »

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

You don’t understand—he was nominated by the Republican Party in 2022 and is therefore a horrible candidate. QED.

We've already litigated this, especially the ridiculous talking point that Michels is an "outsider"
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walleye26
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« Reply #1626 on: August 14, 2022, 01:19:02 PM »

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

You don’t understand—he was nominated by the Republican Party in 2022 and is therefore a horrible candidate. QED.

Michels ads are so awful. Evers is really boring, but Michels seems like cardboard and unlikeable with no personality. His ads were just “I’m Trump’s guy and I’ll build the wall! Illegals are ruining this country! I hate criminals!”
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1627 on: August 14, 2022, 07:28:45 PM »

WI GOP constantly giving things for Evers to run on



Honestly it really sucks how the GOP legistlature doesn't really face electoral consequences. It's not even because of gerrymandering but just Dems extreme packing into Madison and Milwaukee; creating a partisan fair state House or Senate map is very hard
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1628 on: August 15, 2022, 07:01:17 PM »

First Dixon, then Michels - candidates are just MIA

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1629 on: August 19, 2022, 07:13:07 PM »

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #1630 on: August 25, 2022, 07:25:42 PM »



I mean their legislature is more gerrymandered than Apartheid South Africa.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1631 on: August 25, 2022, 10:37:36 PM »

its just about impossible for Republicans to lose their majority in the either chamber. I am at total loss to understand how either map was upheld. You cannot call your state a democracy when you can lose the popular vote and still get the most seats.
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TwinGeeks99
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« Reply #1632 on: August 25, 2022, 10:52:41 PM »

its just about impossible for Republicans to lose their majority in the either chamber. I am at total loss to understand how either map was upheld. You cannot call your state a democracy when you can lose the popular vote and still get the most seats.
While it is true that Republicans undoubtedly gerrymandered the Wisconsin legislature, it is still a stark reality that the natural political geography in that state really does disadvantage Democrats, even without gerrymandering. The fact that Democrats in the state self-pack so efficiently in Madison and Milwaukee plus the fact that the rurals haven't become blood red yet means that the rest of the state minus those two cities is like R+15, with the Republicans being spread out rather efficiently throughout the rest of Wisconsin.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #1633 on: August 25, 2022, 11:04:11 PM »

The big problem with Wisconsin isn't so much that Democrats are packed so much in Milwaukee and Madison. I mean that is a problem but there's a couple notable Republican vote sinks too in the WOW area that balances it out a little, and the Democrats have that problem in most states. The core problem is that there's tons of Democrats "trapped" in places like the Fox River Valley that naturally break down into just Lean R seats. There's plenty of Democrats in the area between Green Bay and Appleton, but they just can't win a majority outside of areas deep in the cities proper, and for the somewhat sizable State Senate districts this often means winning any is a heavy lift. It also doesn't help you'll have a ton of Democrats and a safe Assembly seat somewhere like Eau Claire, but then a bunch of Republican but overwhelmingly so rural areas surrounding it meaning that they win more Assembly seats and you end up with a swing State Senate seat as a result even without gerrymandering. And finally the part of the state that swung the most toward Hillary and Biden was in fact WOW itself, which is still far too Republican to elect any Democrats (although the Milwaukee County suburbs were the only swing part of the state to swing to Hillary and Democrats have locked those down pretty well, but that's where the gerrymandering comes in and it only translates to a few State Assembly seats.)

That said if Democrats could ever win the state by the same margin Obama did again they'd probably win even the current maps.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1634 on: August 26, 2022, 01:11:41 AM »

The big problem with Wisconsin isn't so much that Democrats are packed so much in Milwaukee and Madison. I mean that is a problem but there's a couple notable Republican vote sinks too in the WOW area that balances it out a little, and the Democrats have that problem in most states. The core problem is that there's tons of Democrats "trapped" in places like the Fox River Valley that naturally break down into just Lean R seats. There's plenty of Democrats in the area between Green Bay and Appleton, but they just can't win a majority outside of areas deep in the cities proper, and for the somewhat sizable State Senate districts this often means winning any is a heavy lift. It also doesn't help you'll have a ton of Democrats and a safe Assembly seat somewhere like Eau Claire, but then a bunch of Republican but overwhelmingly so rural areas surrounding it meaning that they win more Assembly seats and you end up with a swing State Senate seat as a result even without gerrymandering. And finally the part of the state that swung the most toward Hillary and Biden was in fact WOW itself, which is still far too Republican to elect any Democrats (although the Milwaukee County suburbs were the only swing part of the state to swing to Hillary and Democrats have locked those down pretty well, but that's where the gerrymandering comes in and it only translates to a few State Assembly seats.)

That said if Democrats could ever win the state by the same margin Obama did again they'd probably win even the current maps.

Yeah this 100%. Whenever I've tried to draw a "fair map" I always end up with tons of "Likely R" seats comprised of pretty R rurals with some small very tiny 50-50 towns pulling the district to be less R but not enough to be competitive. Srs look at how many small towns in WI where Dems win like 50 or 52% of the vote. Quite annoying.

One other factor is that Madison is notably higher turnout than the rest of the state, so not only do Dems win those districts by insane lopsided margins, but they also have tons of wasted votes. At least in Ohio for instance, most of the D areas are relatively low turnout making the geography penalty much less severe.
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walleye26
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« Reply #1635 on: September 03, 2022, 10:25:31 PM »

Yeah, not sure if the “urging people to grab pitchforks and torches is a common expression” argument will work, Tim. Also, while we are at it, donating to anti-LGBT and anti-abortion causes in an election that will absolutely be dominated by that is not “hating you because you’re a Christian.”

https://www.channel3000.com/i/wisconsin-gop-candidate-calls-for-pitchforks-and-torches/
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citizenZ
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« Reply #1636 on: September 04, 2022, 06:25:52 PM »



Wow if she was really polling in the single digits, this is quite a boost for Michels!
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1637 on: September 04, 2022, 06:26:27 PM »

Tilt R -> Lean R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1638 on: September 04, 2022, 06:29:04 PM »


We'll see what the next polls say. Again, it could be argued that she was actually taking more from Evers for whatever reason.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1639 on: September 04, 2022, 11:04:51 PM »

Tilt D > Tilt D. I don't buy that Beglinger was ever going to be a major factor in this race.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1640 on: September 19, 2022, 01:48:47 PM »


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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1641 on: September 22, 2022, 09:33:48 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1642 on: September 23, 2022, 08:10:32 PM »

This doesn't sound like a campaign that is winning right now

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Koharu
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« Reply #1643 on: October 06, 2022, 09:25:37 AM »

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

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The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1644 on: October 06, 2022, 10:03:40 AM »

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

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The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.

Given this disparity, Evers and Michels really shouldn't be tied right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1645 on: October 06, 2022, 10:06:31 AM »

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

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The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.

Given this disparity, Evers and Michels really shouldn't be tied right now.

Its not tied the Sen race is Evers is leading by 3/ give 2/3 pts to Ds for Early vote that's the way I see it that's why I have a wave insurance map, PPP polled the Gov race and Sen race Barnes was tied and Evers was leading by 3

I have much more confidence in SIEGAL knocking off Scott now than SHERMAN because Scott been in office forever
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kwabbit
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« Reply #1646 on: October 06, 2022, 10:11:07 AM »

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

Quote
The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.

Given this disparity, Evers and Michels really shouldn't be tied right now.

Ads have diminishing returns. If each candidate is spending $17 million already and everyone has heard all of their ads, then the extra $21 million won’t do much. The Dems have ran into this the last few cycles. All of their statewide nominees have had more money than they know what to do with. All this money could be best funneled into House and State Legislative seats.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1647 on: October 06, 2022, 10:31:11 PM »

This race really hasn’t gotten enough talk lately, especially compared to the senate race even though I’d argue the Gov race here is far more competitive
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1648 on: October 07, 2022, 08:01:58 AM »

This race really hasn’t gotten enough talk lately, especially compared to the senate race even though I’d argue the Gov race here is far more competitive

Yeah, in theory you'd expect Evers to still have a slight edge here - he has incumbency, he's not really disliked (if anything, he seems at parity most of the time) and has more $$$ than Michels does.

Combine that with Michels being anti-abortion rights and Wisconsin's draconian abortion law, I would think Evers would still be doing relatively well here.

Siena showed Evers +5 which was a high water mark, but then a few found the race tied or Michels +1.

Marquette is coming next week again so hopefully we'll get a better view of it then.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1649 on: October 13, 2022, 03:39:03 PM »

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