Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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  Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY  (Read 161000 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #1575 on: August 09, 2022, 09:53:46 PM »

Looks like Vos is gonna survive the primary but wow its close.

If he had a spine, which he doesn't, he'd fire Gableman after he went after him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1576 on: August 09, 2022, 10:13:53 PM »

Looks like Vos is gonna survive the primary but wow its close.

If he had a spine, which he doesn't, he'd fire Gableman after he went after him.

Oh snap, maybe he will.

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citizenZ
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« Reply #1577 on: August 09, 2022, 10:36:18 PM »

I can't believe that the Republicans are turning out 200,000 more primary voters than the Democratic Primary so far.

I hope this isn't a harbinger of November.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1578 on: August 09, 2022, 10:36:42 PM »

This is one of those elections that could proceed the end of WOW as a cohesive political unit. Washington County really appears to be going in a different direction from Ozaukee and Waukesha.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1579 on: August 09, 2022, 10:37:28 PM »

I can't believe that the Republicans are turning out 200,000 more primary voters than the Democratic Primary so far.

I hope this isn't a harbinger of November.

There was no major reason for Democrats to turnout after the Senate race consolidated.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #1580 on: August 09, 2022, 10:59:14 PM »

I’m quite sure y’all know the reason why Trump didn’t endorse Kleefish - it’s because Kleefish’s daughter went to prom with some state supreme court justice’s son that said the election wasn’t rigged. This is absolutely insane behavior.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1581 on: August 09, 2022, 11:03:20 PM »

I’m quite sure y’all know the reason why Trump didn’t endorse Kleefish - it’s because Kleefish’s daughter went to prom with some state supreme court justice’s son that said the election wasn’t rigged. This is absolutely insane behavior.

I honestly wonder if Kleefisch's daughter feels bad or guilty. Trump is really an awful person.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1582 on: August 10, 2022, 12:13:07 AM »

This is the best news no Kleefisch, Pence has no sway in R party ANYMORE
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #1583 on: August 10, 2022, 05:54:25 AM »

So does anyone think Evers has a chance to survive with Michels winning ??
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1584 on: August 10, 2022, 06:04:28 AM »

Yes he does he was leading in a MQK poll 48/40 WO is a Purple D state it's not OH or IA
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1585 on: August 10, 2022, 07:25:25 AM »

So does anyone think Evers has a chance to survive with Michels winning ??

He always had a chance to survive, now he has a higher one. I would go as far as to call him a mild favorite.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1586 on: August 10, 2022, 07:28:18 AM »

So does anyone think Evers has a chance to survive with Michels winning ??

He was never DOA.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1587 on: August 10, 2022, 08:19:43 AM »

Evers has more of a chance now to survive given Michels is more of a disaster than Kleefisch was.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #1588 on: August 10, 2022, 08:43:04 AM »

So does anyone think Evers has a chance to survive with Michels winning ??

He always had a chance to survive, now he has a higher one. I would go as far as to call him a mild favorite.

Maybe now a mild fav but before he was a decided underdog
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Xing
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« Reply #1589 on: August 10, 2022, 08:50:16 AM »

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1590 on: August 10, 2022, 08:55:52 AM »

Pure tossup -> Tilt D

If the GOP indeed underperforms in key senate and gov races, it will mostly because of nominating terrible candidates. Several of them endorsed by Trump. Remains a big If since we're still 3 months away from the election, but it's really kind of stunning how many joke candidates they nominated this year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1591 on: August 10, 2022, 09:35:30 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2022, 09:51:10 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

Lol we didn't lose Blue states in 2014 we only lost CO, we lost LA, AR, WVA, SD, and MT, 2010 Doyle was TL  he had won 2T and we had 10% Unemployment users forget  D Jim Doyle Gov 2003/2011 was TL in 2010 that's why Walker wonl

Guess what since there is no more Kleefisch Sara Rodriguez will win in 26
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1592 on: August 10, 2022, 10:06:23 AM »

Other than Southern Milwaukee County, this map essentially looks like a 2020 swing map with Kleefisch areas being where Biden improved the most.

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walleye26
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« Reply #1593 on: August 10, 2022, 10:50:22 AM »

One of my friends who is very conservative voted for Kleefisch and said “she’s more electable and a better candidate.” He thinks Michels will lose.

Another friend of mine who has mostly voted GOP told me he will vote for Evers. I know it’s anecdotal, but I do think this isn’t business as usual here. WOW has always voted as a cohesive unit, but Washington peeled off. I wonder how that changes things in November.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1594 on: August 10, 2022, 11:28:33 AM »

The 538 model had been assuming Kleefisch as the nominee.  They've now updated it for Michels, and Evers's probability of winning jumped from 71% to 79% in the Deluxe model, and from 81% to 91% in Classic.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1595 on: August 10, 2022, 11:40:23 AM »

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

An incumbent Democratic Wisconsin governor hasn't run for reelection in a Democratic midterm since 1978, and that was an ascended LG. If you're looking for a governor that was actually elected, it was... 1962? Not a lot of historical precedence to back up your assertion. Evers being an incumbent changes the dynamics here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1596 on: August 10, 2022, 11:56:24 AM »

Isn't Michels not even from WI or doesn't live there? I thought I saw somewhere he lives(d) in CT.
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walleye26
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« Reply #1597 on: August 10, 2022, 11:59:46 AM »

I can't believe that the Republicans are turning out 200,000 more primary voters than the Democratic Primary so far.

I hope this isn't a harbinger of November.

Anecdotal, but I know of many Dems that voted in the GOP primary since Barnes became the nominee.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1598 on: August 10, 2022, 12:19:30 PM »

Isn't Michels not even from WI or doesn't live there? I thought I saw somewhere he lives(d) in CT.

Yeah, if Evers should go full Fetterman here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1599 on: August 10, 2022, 12:41:17 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2022, 12:45:19 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Trump did us a huge favor on IL, WI, MD and PA they all are the wrong candidates

Sullivan would have made this Brady v Quinn 2010 Pritzker would of won but by 3 pts , Kleefisch would of cleaned our clocks, female vote looms large Sara Rodriguez is a Latina, Kleefisch would have taken that away like Reynolds is taking the gender Gap against DEJEAR

Reynolds and DeWine are up 51/43 they're not up 16 pts like the polls indicate, Franken is down by 8 and Ryan is winning I don't see DeWine winning by more than 8 he only won by 3 and so did Reynolds last time
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