Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Pollster]

State Sen. Lena Taylor is running for the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor. She's a notable Barnes foe and has a spotty electoral history.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/juliamanch/status/1449394179566616576?s=21

[SnowLabrador]

Surprised he wants Duffy to run; maybe he perceives Kleefisch as disloyal? Either way this is Lean/Likely R, Evers has nothing to run on.

[Drew]

Potentially shades of the 2018 FL GOP Primary if Duffy runs, a Congressman who loves going on Fox News vs. a statewide officeholder that was perceived to be the favorite for the nomination.  Though in this case they’re both former elected officials rather than current ones like in the FL case, with the baggage of Duffy working on K Street and Kleefisch coming off an election loss.

[Drew]

Former state Rep. Adam Jarchow (R) running for AG

This is the guy who lost a Trump district in a special Senate election in 2018. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Being a liberal democrat in a place like Madison WI must be literal hell.  The Republicans in that state are so right wing and awful and you may have a washed up Real World cast member as Gov.  At least in VA the Gov. candidates have to fake being normal (even though Youngkin is doing a horrid job at it).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1453716080506155015?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1453716080506155015?s=20

GOP hacks now want to play doctor without a license.  When will the insanity end?

[Gass3268]

Good news out of Wisconsin

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1455745868989091842?s=20

[Thunder98]

Evers is screwed next year.

[ElectionsGuy]

My 1 year out county map prediction for what next year's statewide races look like on average



Generic R - 52%
Generic D - 47%

Evers and other Democrats improve in Milwaukee's suburbs and keep their Dane margin even as they do worse statewide. What I'm thinking specific counties look like in the governor's race:

Waukesha - 63% Kleefisch, 36% Evers
Milwaukee - 68% Evers, 30% Kleefisch
Ozaukee - 58% Kleefisch, 41% Evers
Washington - 70% Kleefisch, 29% Evers
Dane - 74% Evers, 25% Kleefisch

Green, Sauk, and Portage are the closest calls, but all of them I think fall in R victories that are greater than 3%.

[Flyersfan232]

Duffy always seem like a future senator rather then governor

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1468627451223937027?s=20

This could draw a large primary. Dane County seats don't open up that often.

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1468627451223937027?s=20

This could draw a large primary. Dane County seats don't open up that often.

This is my district.  I would guess that my state Rep. Dianne Hesselbein will go for it, as she is the Assistant Assembly Minority Leader.

[Gass3268]

There will be a new Assembly Minority Leader at the beginning of the new year.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1470478497160339457?s=20

[ElectionsGuy]

Surprised he wants Duffy to run; maybe he perceives Kleefisch as disloyal? Either way this is Lean/Likely R, Evers has nothing to run on.

I think this likely goes back to 2016 primary stuff. Walker, before Trump became the nominee, criticized Trump frequently and backed Cruz, and then Cruz went on to win the state by a large margin (the last state he'd win, also). So perhaps her affiliation with Walker kind of irkes Trump.

[Roll Roons]

Surprised he wants Duffy to run; maybe he perceives Kleefisch as disloyal? Either way this is Lean/Likely R, Evers has nothing to run on.

I think this likely goes back to 2016 primary stuff. Walker, before Trump became the nominee, criticized Trump frequently and backed Cruz, and then Cruz went on to win the state by a large margin (the last state he'd win, also). So perhaps her affiliation with Walker kind of irkes Trump.

I'm not sure. I remember he did a rally for Walker in 2018 and I'm not sure he's still fixated on whatever grudges he may have developed from before 2016.

[Drew]

There will be a new Assembly Minority Leader at the beginning of the new year.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1470478497160339457?s=20

So Hesselbein now has two possible paths, either become the new minority leader or run for the open Senate seat.

EDIT: I found an article shedding light on who could be the the new leader.  Looks like Mark Spreitzer (D-Beloit) and Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) are possibilities.  Hesselbein is going for Senate.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/12/13/gordon-hintz-step-down-leader-wisconsin-assembly-democrats/6499137001/[/url] Hesselbein said she plans to run to replace Sen. Jon Erpenbach, who announced last week he will not seek re-election and does not plan to run for Assembly minority leader.

Spreitzer said through a spokesman he is still considering the idea. Rep. Greta Neubauer of Racine is strongly considering running, according to her office.

Assembly Democrats will vote to elect their new leader on Dec. 20.

[Drew]

Greta Neubauer will be the new Dem leader, with Kalan Haywood being asst

It’s good to see for once an infusion of youth into Democratic leadership positions, as they are 30 and 22, respectively.

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/tmj4/status/1473670608076611593?s=21

This sets up a special mayoral election for April 2022.

[Suburbia]

Tom Barrett should retire. He was not a good candidate for governor in 2010 and 2012. He doesn't have a path to Congress if he challenges Moore or whoever

[Duke of York]

Tom Barrett should retire. He was not a good candidate for governor in 2010 and 2012. He doesn't have a path to Congress if he challenges Moore or whoever

Hes now Ambassador to Luxembourg.

[sting in the rafters]

VA-GOV and NJ-GOV are warning signs about super-heated rural white turnout. This is Lean R if this election is as nationalized as everyone's expecting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA-GOV and NJ-GOV are warning signs about super-heated rural white turnout. This is Lean R if this election is as nationalized as everyone's expecting.

Biden only has to be near or close to 50 percent on Election day we also didn't have Federal candidate runnings we had statewide races Terry underperform in Spanberger district if she was running in 21 he would of won with here higher turnout


Do you realize WI elected Tammy Baldwin and Russ Feingold

[2016]

VA-GOV and NJ-GOV are warning signs about super-heated rural white turnout. This is Lean R if this election is as nationalized as everyone's expecting.

Biden only has to be near or close to 50 percent on Election day we also didn't have Federal candidate runnings we had statewide races Terry underperform in Spanberger district if she was running in 21 he would of won with here higher turnout


Do you realize WI elected Tammy Baldwin and Russ Feingold

Wisconsin isn't the same State it was when Feingold won the last time. Same for Baldwin. The State is very different compared to 2018.

There is no evidence that Biden will be at near 50 % come November 2022. In fact Biden has his worst Approval Ratings in WI, MI, IA, OH and PA.