Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Umlilo]

We can’t really draw conclusions about Ozaukee from this election, but I’d WOW continues trending left, Wisconsin is not going to be a red state any time soon.

I, for one, am not sure what to think of these kinds of places deciding elections in the future.

[lfromnj]

WOW isn't even trending left really lol, I guess Waukesha is but not too much, its really just Ozaukee.

[Nyvin]

WOW isn't even trending left really lol, I guess Waukesha is but not too much, its really just Ozaukee.

Waukesha went from 32.5% Evers to 38.5% Karofsky.  If margins like that become the new norm in Waukesha then WI GOP is in real trouble.

(Not that I would expect that to happen)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Bidenworth2020]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

Considering Biden absolutely crushed in WOW and it had one of the most significant dropoffs SC race to primary, I wonder if there were Kelly supporters who are also backing Biden?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The map for Karofsky's win looks almost identical to Baldwin's 2018 map, just Racine is out of step here

[pppolitics]

Karofsky is now 9% ahead

[Yoda]

Everyone say thank you to Bernie.

Thanks Bernie!!!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1249897031386177536?s=20

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

We love to see it.

[Gass3268]

Dane County hit 80% and still an outside chance it outvotes Milwaukee County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

Considering Biden absolutely crushed in WOW and it had one of the most significant dropoffs SC race to primary, I wonder if there were Kelly supporters who are also backing Biden?

That wouldn't surprise me. Imagine a right-leaning "independent" who isn't really thrilled with Trump and doesn't want to vote for him in a uncontested primary, so they vote for the more moderate Democrat, not shocking at all.

[Wiz in Wis]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

Total D votes (with Dane not finished) 830k
Total R votes (Trump 99%) 615k

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Thank God!!!!


BTW, is Kelly from racine or something?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Thank God!!!!


BTW, is Kelly from racine or something?

No, it's just a really tough nut to crack, especially in non-general elections. Even Dallet barely failed to win it in her 11 point romp back in 2018.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

...then we wake up tomorrow to find Republicans trying to overturn the election

We'll see... but I feel like they'll be less likely to do so because it was not even close.

[Gass3268]

Thank God!!!!


BTW, is Kelly from racine or something?

Racine County is a good bellwether county during Presidential years, but leans pretty strong towards the right in any other year. The western part of the county is like the most Republican areas of the WOW counties (Extremely Republican), the suburbs around the city are a lot like Franklin or Oak Creek (Moderately Republican) and then the City of Racine itself is very Democratic, but the turnout can fluctuate a lot as it's a pretty diverse city, especially by Wisconsin standards.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even in 2008 Obama was only able to win Racine by 7 points when he won by almost twice that statewide. It's a pretty polarized county prone to turnout fluctuations. Possibly one of the few places where the GOP voter suppression scheme worked.

[Tartarus Sauce]

She's going to crack 10%!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The numbers she's getting in Dane are incredible.  

[Gass3268]

Currently the second largest number of voters in Wisconsin State Supreme Court history, only 2016 had more people vote.

[Tender Branson]

What this really means:

Biden = next POTUS.

Trump = history.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump: THE DEMOCRATS WANTED TO DELAY THE PRIMARY BECAUSE I ENDORSED JUDGE KELLY

Kelly ends up going down in flames by 10%

[Tartarus Sauce]

Karofsky now has above a 150k raw vote margin.

Still 31 precincts to go in Dane County.