Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[lfromnj]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

I think voter access probably does help with turnout a bit. but its probably at this point just a cultural issue, California has super easy voting where some people even come to your house to collect your ballot and people still don't vote.

I am speaking in general terms in a regular non pandemic election btw.

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel like every time a party (GOP) tries to suppress the vote in some way and it's reported on before the election the turnout is always higher and everyone is always surprised afterwards.  When people feel like politicians don't want them to vote they take more interest in it.  This is probably why the absentee vote here ended up being so high.  Obviously coronavirus was a huge factor but reporting on this fiasco probably made people take voting by absentee at the last minute more seriously.

The news needs to just make a big effort to report on all instances of this in November. 

[windjammer]

Any leaks/rumors?

[DINGO Joe]

Any leaks/rumors?

Uh, most of this thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Here is the NYT results page.

I'm anxious. I want to see these results right now. It's really pointless to delay the results when everyone had voted by last Tuesday, even if the results would continue to trickle in until today or later.

Btw, does anyone know how this will come in, will it be giant vote dumps or a trickle in like usual?

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ said they'd start reporting results at 5pm EST, not sure if its a trickle or all at once

[MasterJedi]

DDHQ said they'd start reporting results at 5pm EST, not sure if its a trickle or all at once

I would expect results closer to 8pm Central than 4pm Central.

[Sbane]

DDHQ said they'd start reporting results at 5pm EST, not sure if its a trickle or all at once

I would expect results closer to 8pm Central than 4pm Central.

Do you mean no results till 8pm or that we will have to wait till 8pm to get all the results?

[voice_of_resistance]

ok so what is everyone predicting here? I'm thinking Karofsky by less than 1 point.

[Gass3268]

Madison is going to be slow tonight:

https://twitter.com/jenniferkliese/status/1249746153350074370?s=20

Milwaukee is looking to be closer to 5 PM:

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1249686162245025795?s=20

[MasterJedi]

DDHQ said they'd start reporting results at 5pm EST, not sure if its a trickle or all at once

I would expect results closer to 8pm Central than 4pm Central.

Do you mean no results till 8pm or that we will have to wait till 8pm to get all the results?

Most places won't actually begin counting until 4pm, expect a lot of places to not have results until then. As posted above Milwaukee should report pretty fast though as expected.

[Gass3268]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ax9NndqJ4bxHSw7-C7Oqi3AYjhJ5kXk7__nJsIL_oIg/edit?usp=sharing

I have a spreadsheet that I am going to be using to track the results as they come in tonight. I will be comparing the results tonight to what an even margin would be based on the last six contested Supreme Court races. Funny thing is the average is close to even, Liberals have a 0.19% advantage, that it didn't take much to move the average to even. I will also be comparing turnout to the average, comparing each counties % of the total to what the % is in the average, and the % of registered voters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus 2.0, here we come

[Dr. Arch]

If anyone finds any good results maps besides the DDHQ one, could you post the link here?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Election Twitter geek consensus seems to be a Karofsky win... but ya know, it's Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

If anyone finds any good results maps besides the DDHQ one, could you post the link here?

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Wisconsin Public Television both should have maps when the time gets closer.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/geostanley/status/1249794291976810496?s=20

Pray that the race isn't close.

[redjohn]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

[Bidenworth2020]

Anybody find a map yet?

[Gass3268]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

Brown leans almost 6 points to the right in Supreme Court elections on average. You are right on when it comes to Kenosha, however. Leans only ~.75% to the left.

[redjohn]

Anybody find a map yet?

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2020/4/13/wisconsin-spring-election-results-april-7.html

[redjohn]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

Brown leans almost 6 points to the right in Supreme Court elections on average. You are right on when it comes to Kenosha, however. Leans only ~.75% to the left.

Ah, okay. I was just looking at the results maps from the 2019 and 2017 supreme court elections and saw Brown is generally close to the statewide result.

[Gass3268]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

Brown leans almost 6 points to the right in Supreme Court elections on average. You are right on when it comes to Kenosha, however. Leans only ~.75% to the left.

Ah, okay. I was just looking at the results maps from the 2019 and 2017 supreme court elections and saw Brown is generally close to the statewide result.

It does look like in the last two races it was close to the state margin. Looks like its a reverse Adams County.

[Bidenworth2020]

When are first results coming?

[anthonyjg]

When are first results coming?

Should be any minute, Racine just reported for the presidential primary