Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Brittain33]

I want to believe but I just have to assume there’s some data input which is being estimated wrongly and Republicans have the edge.

[Gass3268]

Two Lakeshore Milwaukee Villages did their own VBM, got really good return rates:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248680544910499841?s=20

[Bidenworth2020]

Two Lakeshore Milwaukee Villages did their own VBM, got really good return rates:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248680544910499841?s=20

Isn't this one of the fastest D-trending areas of Wisconsin besides Dane?

[walleye26]

Two Lakeshore Milwaukee Villages did their own VBM, got really good return rates:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248680544910499841?s=20

Isn't this one of the fastest D-trending areas of Wisconsin besides Dane?

Yes, because the lakeshore suburbs are more diverse and contain white liberals, as opposed to WOW

[walleye26]

Another thing I’m curious of is if there will be any trends towards Karofsky in Ozaukee or Waukesha Counties. Nonpartisan races tend to be more educated, and last year Neubauer got a bit over 37% in Ozaukee. If Karofsky gets 40% in Ozaukee, I think that would be interesting.

[Gass3268]

Two Lakeshore Milwaukee Villages did their own VBM, got really good return rates:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248680544910499841?s=20

Isn't this one of the fastest D-trending areas of Wisconsin besides Dane?

Yes, because the lakeshore suburbs are more diverse and contain white liberals, as opposed to WOW

Brown Deer and Glendale are fairly diverse, at least for Wisconsin, the rest however are very white.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Kate_Riga24/status/1248735491073224710

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/Kate_Riga24/status/1248735491073224710

Why is following the Supreme Court ruling "pushing as narrow a definition of an acceptable ballot". Regardless, not good. More controversy to challenge the integrity of the election.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the data we're getting is VERY good for Karofsky

[Dr. Arch]

So, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the data we're getting is VERY good for Karofsky

You're correct.

[Bidenworth2020]

So, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the data we're getting is VERY good for Karofsky

I wouldn't get too optimistic. The rurals still look quite strong for Kelly.

[Nyvin]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

[Dr. Arch]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Not quite. See this post by walleye:

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

[Gass3268]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yeah, turnout will probably pass every competative Supreme Court election since 2010 except 2016 and maybe 2011 (Act 10).

[Dr. Arch]

The last absentees from either Dane or MKE alone are beating WOW (Ozaukee only added +21 today).

https://mobile.twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248681342537269252

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Not quite. See this post by walleye:

https://www.weau.com/content/news/Polls-closed-in-Wisconsin-spring-primary-569461491.html

City of Eau Claire: 47% turnout.
Eau Claire County: 34%.

In 2018, Evers won Wausau 52-47, for some context on the Wausau numbers.

Christ dude, I already pointed out those two figures are NOT the same.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

LOL, you're such a tool.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

LOL, you're such a tool.

Thanks for your substantive rebuttal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

LOL, you're such a tool.

Thanks for your substantive rebuttal.

There is no substantive rebuttal to someone who denies reality in such a blatant and comically hackish way.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know what reality I'm denying. People stood in line until 1AM due to the shortage of poll locations in lots of places. In some cases they were offered help and they turned it down.

But I would love to know how somebody from Greece knows more about the Wisconsin election than I do.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't know what reality I'm denying. People stood in line until 1AM due to the shortage of poll locations in lots of places. In some cases they were offered help and they turned it down.

The reality that Republicans fought tooth and nail to make it as difficult as possible for people to vote.

[wbrocks67]

It would be very interesting if the backlash to the Republicans fiasco created a last minute opening for Dems to win

[walleye26]

As of Thursday night, according to Madison’s clerk, they had received 8,158 absentee ballots from city voters on April 8th and 9th.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know what reality I'm denying. People stood in line until 1AM due to the shortage of poll locations in lots of places. In some cases they were offered help and they turned it down.

The reality that Republicans fought tooth and nail to make it as difficult as possible for people to vote.

I would actually agree with that but they didn't enact anything this time to limit the vote, as much as they might have wanted to, the courts just came in at the last minute. Local government is in charge of their polling locations and general election day operations.

My statement was a positive one, that people in Wisconsin still voted in large numbers in spite of the confusion in the days leading up of when the election was going to be held. It shows people follow the news and care about voting. Even among the voter suppression that existed, it showed that it's been very ineffective, especially among Democratic constituencies with decent turnout in Milwaukee.

See how I can have a conversation without insulting you. A 40-something-year-old man is apparently incapable of that.