Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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  Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY  (Read 161030 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #325 on: January 11, 2020, 09:55:32 AM »

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

Even Hillary won Shilling’s district.  I doubt she loses unless Wisconsin swings even further toward Trump.
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Drew
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« Reply #326 on: January 13, 2020, 02:02:43 PM »

State Superintendent Carolyn Stanford Taylor not running for a full term in Spring 2021.  She was picked by Evers to finish his term.  This will be the first open Superintendent race since 2009.

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/education/stanford-taylor-won-t-run-for-election-to-state-superintendent/article_d48f2383-dadf-5868-862e-6fe26520c365.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
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walleye26
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« Reply #327 on: January 14, 2020, 08:35:10 PM »

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-SD30) retiring, potential GOP pickup as the district has been trending R.

https://www.wpr.org/green-bay-state-sen-dave-hansen-wont-seek-re-election

A GOP supermajority in the state Senate is within reach.  It’s possible they could pick this up (Dems won it 51.3-48.7 in 2016), as well as Patty Schachtner’s seat (SD10, she’s the Doug Jones of Wisconsin), and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling’s seat (SD32, held onto her seat by 56 votes in 2016).

Question for you (or any of my other Badger-bros): I'm assuming there are no possible R->D flips to offset these potential losses, else they would have been won over in 2018?

The 2018 election was for the other half of the Senate seats.  The 2020 map was last up in 2016, where Dems had identified a few targets, but they ended up trending more towards Rs.  If there’s one offensive target this time around it would maybe be Patrick Testin’s seat in SD24, which he flipped in 2016.  However, if Dems were to flip this seat back, then I’m guessing they’re holding SDs 30 and 32 in the process.

Yeah, Testin’s seat could be a target. It covers Stevens Point and it’s suburbs, as well as another assembly district going southwest towards Tomah. Testin only won it by 4% in 2016, and with increased turnout at UWSP and the Point area in general and a slight leftward trend in the rest of his senate district he could be flipped.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #328 on: January 21, 2020, 12:37:58 PM »



Safe D Senate District, but the Democratic Primary could be competative here. The winner would essentailly get the seat for as long as they want.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #329 on: January 21, 2020, 10:49:55 PM »

Shockingly there are now 6 Assembly Republicans that now support legislation to implement Iowa style redistricting reform.

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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #330 on: January 22, 2020, 11:35:17 AM »

Shockingly there are now 6 Assembly Republicans that now support legislation to implement Iowa style redistricting reform.



Well, that's good!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #331 on: January 22, 2020, 08:36:45 PM »

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Drew
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« Reply #332 on: January 23, 2020, 01:39:11 PM »



Safe D Senate District, but the Democratic Primary could be competative here. The winner would essentailly get the seat for as long as they want.

Sargent is already in, and Anderson and Hebl are considering.  Also considering are Kelda Roys and Madison alder Samba Baldeh.

Also, the article below states that Fred Risser, 92 years old and the longest-serving state legislator in American history, hasn’t made a decision yet on whether to run again and will decide by April.

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/several-madison-area-democrats-mull-run-for-mark-miller-s/article_71489783-e389-504c-af1a-2c0374882df4.html
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #333 on: February 18, 2020, 01:13:07 PM »

The primary for Supreme Court Justice is today, two of three candidates will advance to April 7th general election. Two liberals (Jill Korofsky, Ed Fallone), one conservative (Dan Kelly). Very likely Fallone will be defeated and it will go to a Kelly vs Korofsky race. I'll be looking to see what percentage of the vote Kelly gets vs Korofsky + Fallone. I'll be voting shortly Glasses
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #334 on: February 18, 2020, 03:25:46 PM »

The primary for Supreme Court Justice is today, two of three candidates will advance to April 7th general election. Two liberals (Jill Korofsky, Ed Fallone), one conservative (Dan Kelly). Very likely Fallone will be defeated and it will go to a Kelly vs Korofsky race. I'll be looking to see what percentage of the vote Kelly gets vs Korofsky + Fallone. I'll be voting shortly Glasses

Yep! Just voted for Karofsky.
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Drew
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« Reply #335 on: February 18, 2020, 09:37:39 PM »
« Edited: February 18, 2020, 09:41:22 PM by Drew »

Supreme Court
NAME   VOTES   PCT.   

Jill Karofsky   102,379   44%   

Daniel Kelly (I)   93,048   40%   

Ed Fallone   38,242   16%   
28% reporting (1007 of 3624 precincts)

Link with county map here: https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2020/2/18/election-results-wisconsin-spring-primary-election.html

Milwaukee nearly 90% in, Dane 2/3 in, Waukesha not reporting yet.

For those of you out of state, Kelly is preferred by Republicans, while Karofsky and Fallone are preferred by Democrats.  The top two advance, so it’s likely to be Kelly and Karofsky.  No surprise here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #336 on: February 18, 2020, 09:39:43 PM »

There is still about 25% left to report in Dane County and they've already surpassed the turnout of last year's spring election primary (which included the primary for Madison mayor) and the spring election from 2017. Probably will easily pass 2018. Could get close to 30%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #337 on: February 18, 2020, 09:50:42 PM »

Door going straight up for Karofsky is good to see.
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Drew
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« Reply #338 on: February 18, 2020, 10:03:22 PM »

Supreme Court
NAME   VOTES   PCT.   
 
Daniel Kelly (I)   201,246   48%   
 
Jill Karofsky   161,116   38%   

Ed Fallone   57,017   14%   
50% reporting (1811 of 3624 precincts)

The race has been called for Karofsky and Kelly to advance.  About 71% of Waukesha in, 86% of Dane in, 93% of Milwaukee in.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #339 on: February 18, 2020, 10:06:56 PM »

There is still about 25% left to report in Dane County and they've already surpassed the turnout of last year's spring election primary (which included the primary for Madison mayor) and the spring election from 2017. Probably will easily pass 2018. Could get close to 30%.

Not going to hit 30%, must have been some small precincts left that got counted. Might get to 25%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #340 on: February 18, 2020, 10:08:50 PM »

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Nyvin
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« Reply #341 on: February 18, 2020, 10:38:46 PM »

Considering the runoff is on the same day as the Presidential primary, it would take a colossal blunder for Karofsky to lose in my humble opinion.   Although you never know in Wisconsin.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #342 on: February 19, 2020, 02:13:21 AM »

There is still about 25% left to report in Dane County and they've already surpassed the turnout of last year's spring election primary (which included the primary for Madison mayor) and the spring election from 2017. Probably will easily pass 2018. Could get close to 30%.

Not going to hit 30%, must have been some small precincts left that got counted. Might get to 25%.

Dane always does that. Madison has a bunch of micro precincts that are always among the last to report for some reason.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #343 on: February 19, 2020, 03:19:22 AM »

Good night for Kelly, I would say. Of course, this one doesn't matter, the April election will (which will be tough for him). Kelly more or less matched Trump's % of the vote across Wisconsin, did better in metro Milwaukee and worse in Dane (as expected for any SC race). If Trump is smart, he'll do a rally the day before the election in outer Wisconsin (the 3rd or 7th district) to get turnout up.



Kelly: 352,860 (50.1%)
Liberals: 350,902 (49.9%)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #344 on: February 19, 2020, 03:37:57 AM »

Before tonight, I would've rated the general election Likely Korofsky (assuming she would've advanced). Now, I would say Lean Korofsky, my preliminary prediction is 53-47. There's something not good about the fact that it's always a Madison liberal running against the conservative.
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Badger
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« Reply #345 on: February 19, 2020, 03:48:51 AM »

Shockingly there are now 6 Assembly Republicans that now support legislation to implement Iowa style redistricting reform.



Well, that's good!

Forgive my cynicism, but what's the catch?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #346 on: February 19, 2020, 06:49:56 AM »

Supreme Court
NAME   VOTES   PCT.   
 
Daniel Kelly (I)   201,246   48%   
 
Jill Karofsky   161,116   38%   

Ed Fallone   57,017   14%   
50% reporting (1811 of 3624 precincts)

The race has been called for Karofsky and Kelly to advance.  About 71% of Waukesha in, 86% of Dane in, 93% of Milwaukee in.

This looks like a good sign for Karofsky then, since Fallone was favored by Dems as well.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #347 on: February 19, 2020, 10:43:59 AM »

Before tonight, I would've rated the general election Likely Korofsky (assuming she would've advanced). Now, I would say Lean Korofsky, my preliminary prediction is 53-47. There's something not good about the fact that it's always a Madison liberal running against the conservative.

Really depends on if the Democratic Primary is at all competative by early April. If it is, it's hard to see how Kelly could compete against at least 1,000,000 votes, probably more, that will be coming to Korofsky via the Democratic Primary.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #348 on: February 19, 2020, 03:46:00 PM »

Before tonight, I would've rated the general election Likely Korofsky (assuming she would've advanced). Now, I would say Lean Korofsky, my preliminary prediction is 53-47. There's something not good about the fact that it's always a Madison liberal running against the conservative.

Really depends on if the Democratic Primary is at all competative by early April. If it is, it's hard to see how Kelly could compete against at least 1,000,000 votes, probably more, that will be coming to Korofsky via the Democratic Primary.

The Dems will have high turnout, that's for sure. I'm just not sure how Republicans will turn out, and I expect at least some minor percentage of Rs to vote in the Dem primary for president but Kelly at the same time so they could be winning the primary turnout game 55/45 and still lose it. In addition, something else I found interesting was Dane + Milwaukee made up 29% of the vote in this primary, compared to 25% in last year's SC race and the presidential race in 2016. So liberals did turn out in higher numbers, but rural Wisconsin had pretty strong numbers for Kelly akin to Trump or even exceeding him in some cases. I think after Super Tuesday we'll get a decent idea of how Republicans will be turning out when they have other primaries to turn out for (other than the presidential race, such as Alabama) in comparison to Democrats. This should give us a clue to how Republicans will turn out on April 7th.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #349 on: February 27, 2020, 02:16:34 PM »

Evers is very popular:

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