Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[MasterJedi]

Please keep in mind due to population distribution in the state Republicans will probably still have a majority, it just won’t be anywhere close to a supermajority.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Next step should be challenging the congressional map in time for 2024. With NY, WI, AL-2 and probably LA-5, the Dems could easily come out on top despite NC.

The legal basis for challenging the legislative maps does not apply to the Congressional map.

[Devils30]

Next step should be challenging the congressional map in time for 2024. With NY, WI, AL-2 and probably LA-5, the Dems could easily come out on top despite NC.

The legal basis for challenging the legislative maps does not apply to the Congressional map.

No but there is no reason the Dems can't challenge it on the legal basis that the criteria should not have been minimum change from the 2010s map.

[Schiff for Senate]

Please repost your best de-rigged WI leg maps.

Well, mine is probably far from the "best" in any parameter, but it underscores that bad geography is still an issue for WI Democrats -
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5f34dfb7-06ad-4070-b75c-a939b8491479

This map - which I made without any intent of partisan gerrymandering, tried to keep districts reasonable/compact - ends up with 21 Trump districts and 12 Biden seats. Admittedly two of the Trump seats are very close, but nonetheless.

[Epaminondas]

Please repost your best de-rigged WI leg maps.

Well, mine is probably far from the "best" in any parameter, but it underscores that bad geography is still an issue for WI Democrats.

Thanks. Username checks out.
Was hoping to see truly de-rigged Senate maps that reflected the partisan lean of state.

[Schiff for Senate]

Please repost your best de-rigged WI leg maps.

Well, mine is probably far from the "best" in any parameter, but it underscores that bad geography is still an issue for WI Democrats.

Thanks. Username checks out.
Was hoping to see truly de-rigged Senate maps that reflected the partisan lean of state.

The username is a misnomer atp since anyone who knows me can tell you I'm really pretty much a Democrat (as my avatar now indicates) more than anything else.

I can make a balanced map if need be, but I don't think that's the definition of "de-rigged." "De-rigged" really means drawing the districts with as little consideration of political data as possible. Maybe the outcome isn't proportional, but that's really the result of how the geography works out.

Say the word and I can draw up a 17-16, but don't be surprised if it looks quite horrendous.

The fact is inescapable that the political distribution of voters in WI is exceptionally good for the GOP; this is exactly the sort of map you get if you draw the districts as nonpartisan-lly as possible.

[Epaminondas]

Say the word and I can draw up a 17-16, but don't be surprised if it looks quite horrendous.

Apologies for my misunderstanding.
Yes the 17-16 WI State Senate maps (or even 16-17, in line with 2020) are what I hoped to see. Would you be able to produce this?

[Schiff for Senate]

Say the word and I can draw up a 17-16, but don't be surprised if it looks quite horrendous.

Apologies for my misunderstanding.
Yes the 17-16 WI State Senate maps (or even 16-17, in line with 2020) are what I hoped to see. Would you be able to produce this?

I suppose it isn't that bad:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c06bb4c5-6650-4ce0-8bf4-ea1e82fe4dfa
17-16 Trump in 2016, 17-16 Biden in 2020
17-16 Evers in 2018, 17-16 Evers in 2022
20-13 Baldwin in 2018, 17-16 Barnes in 2022

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1745559906973872244

[Gass3268]

Maps from interested parties are due to the Wisconsin Supreme Court by 5PM CT today. Should start getting our first looks at what people in the know are thinking here.

[Oryxslayer]

Plaintiff map here

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?s=46

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?s=46

How likely is this to succeed? Is there any barriers before it would get to the WISC?

[Ferguson97]

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin’s GOP-controlled Legislature on Tuesday passed legislative maps that were proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers — a move designed to prevent the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court from implementing maps that might be even worse for Republicans.

Republicans conceded defeat, while Democrats said they were afraid of being tricked.

“It pains me to say it, but Gov. Evers gets a huge win today,” Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said, adding that under the new maps, “the Legislature will be up for grabs.”

It will never not be hilarious that we're getting fair maps in Wisconsin because a boy asked a girl to prom.

[Roll Roons]

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin’s GOP-controlled Legislature on Tuesday passed legislative maps that were proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers — a move designed to prevent the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court from implementing maps that might be even worse for Republicans.

Republicans conceded defeat, while Democrats said they were afraid of being tricked.

“It pains me to say it, but Gov. Evers gets a huge win today,” Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said, adding that under the new maps, “the Legislature will be up for grabs.”

It will never not be hilarious that we're getting fair maps in Wisconsin because a boy asked a girl to prom.

TBF it’s far from guaranteed that Kleefisch would have won.

[Ferguson97]

TBF it’s far from guaranteed that Kleefisch would have won.

It's certainly not guaranteed, but I think she would have definitely performed better than Michels.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin’s GOP-controlled Legislature on Tuesday passed legislative maps that were proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers — a move designed to prevent the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court from implementing maps that might be even worse for Republicans.

Republicans conceded defeat, while Democrats said they were afraid of being tricked.

“It pains me to say it, but Gov. Evers gets a huge win today,” Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said, adding that under the new maps, “the Legislature will be up for grabs.”

It will never not be hilarious that we're getting fair maps in Wisconsin because a boy asked a girl to prom.

What is the context of that?

[Duke of York]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/wisconsin-new-state-legislative-maps-rcna139477

Evers has signed the maps. The era of the Republican supermajority is over.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin’s GOP-controlled Legislature on Tuesday passed legislative maps that were proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers — a move designed to prevent the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court from implementing maps that might be even worse for Republicans.

Republicans conceded defeat, while Democrats said they were afraid of being tricked.

“It pains me to say it, but Gov. Evers gets a huge win today,” Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said, adding that under the new maps, “the Legislature will be up for grabs.”

It will never not be hilarious that we're getting fair maps in Wisconsin because a boy asked a girl to prom.

What is the context of that?

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2022/07/23/donald-trump-endorsed-tim-michels-after-rant-about-tweets-of-rebecca-kleefisch-brian-hagedorn-teens/10121697002/

In a private meeting with construction executive Tim Michels in April, Trump complained about a 2019 tweet by Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in which she posted a picture of her daughter with the son of Supreme Court Justice Brian Hagedorn.

The tweet showed the two teenagers dressed up in formal wear and headed to a high school homecoming event. A political ally then retweeted the post, suggesting it was the beginning of a "Hagedorn-Kleefisch political dynasty in Wisconsin."

Hagedorn, who ran as a conservative, has been criticized heavily by Republicans after being a swing vote in high-profile decisions involving pandemic-related restrictions andTrump's efforts to overturn Wisconsin's last presidential election. In response, Trump attacked the Wisconsin jurist on Twitter in late 2020.

"Trump was aware of these tweets" with the photo of Kleefisch and Hagedorn's children, said a source who was in the room during the Michels meeting. "And it bothered him."

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

(Snipped)

Thank you! Just shows how petty these folks can be. Almost like Trump is the one that got snubbed from a prom.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 01
Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc & Outagamie
Largest Municipality: Village of Harrison
Demographics: 90.7% White (-3.9%) 4.0% Hispanic (1.6%) 1.2% Black (.4%) AAPI 1.8% (.4%) Native 1.8% (.8%)  
Population Growth: 6.5%
PVI: R+12 (R+3)
2020 Turnout: 81.9%
2020 Pres: Trump 59.2% - Biden 39.2% (Trump +5.7)
Pres Swing: Biden +0.9%
2022 Avg: Republicans 59.3% - Democrats 39.3%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Senator: Redistricted to SD-30
Next Election: 2026
Description: District drops De Pere and Two Rivers, while also pulling out of Appleton. In exchange it takes in more rural areas in Brown and Manitowoc counties, plus taking in almost all of Calumet County. The result is a district that goes from Door County, between the Green Bay and Manitowoc build up, all the way to Lake Winnebago. Will be a Solid Republican race in 2026, even as Senator André Jacque, who currently represents this seat, is considering running for WI-08 with Rep. Mike Gallagher retiring

Assembly District 01
Counties: Brown, Door & Kewaunee
Largest Municipality: City of Sturgeon Bay
Demographics: 92.2 White (-3.5%) 3.6% Hispanic (1.4%) 1.0% Black (.2%) .9% AAPI (.3%) 1.8% Native (.8%)
Population Growth: 4.86%
PVI: R+9 (D/R+0)
2020 Turnout: 83.0%
2020 Pres: Trump 56.5% - Biden 41.9% (Biden/Trump +0.0)
Pres Swing: Biden +0.3%
2022 Avg: Republicans 56.0% - Democrats 42.7%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Joel Kitchens (Sturgeon Bay- 01)
Description: One of only two districts outside of Milwaukee County that did not change from the 2022 map. Door County continues to trend strongly towards Democrats, but the rest of the district in Brown and Kewaunee County is going the other way, and it’s more populated. It’s the most competitive of the SD-01 trio, but it's still Very Likely Republican at best.

Assembly District 02
Counties: Brown, Manitowoc & Outagamie
Largest Municipality: City of Kaukauna (East)
Demographics: 91.4% White (-3.7%) 3.3% Hispanic (1.3%) 1.3% Black (.5%) 1.8% AAPI (.5%) 1.8% Native (.9%)
Population Growth: 8.9%
PVI: R+13 (R+3)
2020 Turnout: 81.3%
2020 Pres: Trump 60.7% - Biden 37.6% (Trump +6.9)
Pres Swing: Trump +0.4%
2022 Avg: Republicans 60.6% - Democrats 37.9%
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representatives: Shae Sortwell (Town of Gibson - 02) & John Macco (Town Ledgeview - 88)
Description: AD-02 no longer includes De Pere or Two Rivers, but rather now takes more or rural Brown and Manitowoc counties, plus all of Outagamie that is in SD-01. The result is two Republican representatives are double bunked. Rep. Sortwell will in all likelihood be the representative in this Solid Republican seat next year as Rep. Macco has stated he plans on moving back into AD-88.

Assembly District 03
Counties: Calumet & Manitowoc
Largest Municipality: Village of Harrison
Demographics: 88.4 White (-4.6%) 5.3% Hispanic (2.1%) 1.4% Black (.5%) 2.8% AAPI (.6%) 1.7% (.9%)
Population Growth: 5.9%
PVI: R+14 (R+5)
2020 Turnout: 80.1%
2020 Pres: 60.6% Trump - 37.8% Biden (Trump +10.6)
Pres Swing: Biden +1.1%
2022 Avg: 61.6% Republicans - 37.0% Democrats
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representatives: Ron Tusler (Harrison - 03) & Ty Bodden (Stockbridge - 59)
Description: This district drops out of Outagamie County and in return now includes almost all of Calumet County and a substantial part of west Manitowoc County. The result is a substantially more Republican district that includes the home of two current Republican representatives (no known reelection plans yet for either). Rep. Bodden would probably be the favorite, but I think it would be close in the primary, before being Solid Republican in the general election.

Swing Map:

[Gass3268]

Couple notes on my upcoming break down:

- The numbers next to the demographics and the population growth are the changes since the 2010 census.
- 2022 Avg is the average of all 5 statewide races.
- Ratings will be from CNalysis, but I'll let you know if I disagree with any of them.

Let me know if you have any questions, I should have SD-02 done soon.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/byjackkelly/status/1763657015912480891?t=8mIc7d5VdNroDFDYoMc...

Something that could speed up cases when it comes to stuff like congressional redistricting, voting rights, abortion, and other cases.

[walleye26]

Couple notes on my upcoming break down:

- The numbers next to the demographics and the population growth are the changes since the 2010 census.
- 2022 Avg is the average of all 5 statewide races.
- Ratings will be from CNalysis, but I'll let you know if I disagree with any of them.

Let me know if you have any questions, I should have SD-02 done soon.

Can’t wait to see them. Your work is much appreciated.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 02
Counties: Brown, Menominee, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano & Waupaca
Largest Municipality: Village of Howard
Demographics: 85.3% White (-3.8%) 3.0% Hispanic (.9%) 1.3% Black (.5%) 1.6% AAPI (.7%) 8.7% Native (1.5%)
Population Growth: 8.6%
PVI: R+16 (R+3)
2020 Turnout: 76.5%
2020 Pres: 62.5% Trump - 36.0% Biden (Trump +6.7%)
Pres Swing: Biden +0.9%
2022 Avg: 62.6% Republicans - 35.9% Democrats
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Senator: Redistricted to SD-30
Next Election: 2024
Description: In Tony Evers’ map this district shifts to the northwest. It retreats entirely from the southern Green Bay suburbs of Allouez and Ashwaubenon, and gets almost all the way out of the City of Green Bay. It also moves out of western Outagamie County, leaving the City of Hortonville. In return it takes all of the Village of Howard, Menominee County and the eastern more populated portion of Oconto County. Combining the Oneida reservation with the Menominee Indian Reservation results in this being the Senate district with the highest Native American population. Senator Robert Cowles has announced he will move into the new Solid Republican SD-02, the seat he has represented since 1987.  

Assembly District 04
Counties: Brown & Oconto
Largest Municipality: Village of Howard
Demographics: 90.3% White (-4.4%) 2.6% Hispanic (2.1%) 1.5% Black 1.7% (.5%) AAPI (.6%) 3.3% Native (.9%)
Population Growth: 9.9%
PVI: R+16 (R+11)
2020 Turnout: 80.1%
2020 Pres: 63.1% Trump - 35.4% Biden (Trump +22.6%)
Pres Swing: Biden +1.8%
2022 Avg: 63.1% Republicans - 35.3% Democrats
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representatives: David Steffen (Howard - 04) & Elijah Behnke (Town of Pensaukee - 89)
Description: This district takes the far northern part of AD-04 (western part of the Village of Howard and a small part of the City of Green Bay) and the southern part of AD-89 (eastern part of the Village of Boward all the up to the Menominee-Oconto county line). The areas lost here (Allouez, Ashwaubenan, and western Green Bay) have been moved to the now more competitive AD-88 and AD-89. Eyeballing it, it looks like more people that lived in AD-89 in the prior map than AD-04. This should give Rep. Behnke a leg up if he were to go up against Rep. Steffen in a primary for this Solid Republican district

Assembly District 05
Counties: Brown & Outagamie
Largest Municipality: Village of Little Chute
Demographics: 84.8% White (-3.6%) 3.4% Hispanic (.9%) 1.5% Black (.6%) 2.4% AAPI (1.2%) 8.1% Native (.4%)
Population Growth: 17.4%
PVI: R+12 (R+2)
2020 Turnout: 78.4%
2020 Pres: Trump 59.3% - Biden 39.0% (Trump +4.0%)
Pres Swing: Biden +1.4%
2022 Avg: Republicans 59.95% Republicans - 38.7% Democrats
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Joy Goeben (Hobart - 05)
Description: The fastest growing seat not in Dane County, this Assembly district has pulled out further from the urban Green Bay area and out of eastern part Kaukauna, but has taken the town of Lawrence south of Green Bay and the Seymour area in Outagamie County. This Solid Republican seat will not be competitive for the foreseeable future.

Assembly District 06
Counties: Brown, Menominee, Oconto, Shawano & Waupaca
Largest Municipality: City of Shawano
Demographics: 80.8% White (-3.8%) 2.9% Hispanic (.7%) .9% Black (.4%) .7% AAPI (.1%) 14.8% Native (1.9%)
Population Growth: -0.0
PVI: R+18 (D+3)
2020 Turnout: 71.1%
2020 Pres: Trump 65.1% - Biden 33.5% (Biden +6.8%)
Pres Swing: Trump +0.8%
2022 Avg: 65.0% Republicans - 33.5% Democrats
Incumbent Party: Republican
Incumbent Representative: Peter A. Schmidt (Town of Hartland - 06)
Description: Evers’ map has this district shifting northward out of Outagamie County and taking more of Shawano County, the Clintonville area, and Menominee County. This district has the highest percentage of Native Americans in the Assembly. That said this is a very Republican district and will be Solid Republican in the fall.

Swing Map: