Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Duke of York]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

No they were not close to doing that. Roberts would never go for that.

They don't need Roberts right now.

If you believe this is a uniquely conservative court relative to the long run average (reasonable IMO), it could make sense to wait a bit. 

I don't think you could get a majority of even this court to agree to that.

[Dan the Roman]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

No they were not close to doing that. Roberts would never go for that.

They don't need Roberts right now.

If you believe this is a uniquely conservative court relative to the long run average (reasonable IMO), it could make sense to wait a bit. 

I don't think you could get a majority of even this court to agree to that.

Actually you could get them to adopt the 4-3 WI SC standard which is in the event of a deadlock, courts should not "start from scratch" and absent clear language to the contrary adopt a "least change" approach.

In effect, it would say the power to draw districts goes

Constitution >Congress> state law> Legislatures >state courts

If legislatures have not drawn them, you look to what guidelines congress has passed then the federal constitution. If neither has any reference to proportional representation, state courts cannot invent a requirement that maps be proportional for federal races that takes precedence over the last legally map valid under the federal constitution(ie the previous one).

[Nyvin]

Actually you could get them to adopt the 4-3 WI SC standard which is in the event of a deadlock, courts should not "start from scratch" and absent clear language to the contrary adopt a "least change" approach.

In effect, it would say the power to draw districts goes

Constitution >Congress> state law> Legislatures >state courts

If legislatures have not drawn them, you look to what guidelines congress has passed then the federal constitution. If neither has any reference to proportional representation, state courts cannot invent a requirement that maps be proportional for federal races that takes precedence over the last legally map valid under the federal constitution(ie the previous one).

An extremely convenient approach for partisan gerrymanderers, you have to say.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1732189943261221087?s=46

[MasterJedi]

Evers vetoed the Republican gender care ban. Fascists lose again.

[Gass3268]

Directly is the key word here.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1735038580429406639?s=46

[Skill and Chance]

Have we now passed the date after which Ever's appointee would serve out the full 10 year term if Protasiewicz were to be impeached and removed?

[Gass3268]

Have we now passed the date after which Ever's appointee would serve out the full 10 year term if Protasiewicz were to be impeached and removed?

Yes, that was December 1st. Worst thing they could do now would be impeach, but not remove. Essentially making the impeached judge have to choose to either resign or leave the court split at 3-3.

[wbrocks67]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

[Gass3268]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

Yeah, extremely unlikely there is a different map by election day 2024. Will be interesting to see what standard they set with the legislative maps and if could be applicable for the congressional map. Maybe the hear another case that could then be in place by 2026. There is no reason you can't have a 5-3 or 4-4 map in Wisconsin. It doesn't even have to be that ugly looking.

[Gass3268]

Rumblings we could get the redistricting decision this week.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1736510644042502411?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

Letting that go to SCOTUS with the current lineup is all downside. 

[Oryxslayer]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

Letting that go to SCOTUS with the current lineup is all downside. 

State Courts are separate institutions and the feds can only really get involved if its federal law and a transfer is requested on those grounds. Cases including those from the past 3 years in NM, NH, NC, KY, NY, UT, PA, OH, and potentially here all involve the interpretation of the state constitution. The State Supreme Court is the highest arbiter for these situations of determining if the State has provisions against gerrymandering and only the state, since Roberts has said partisan gerrymandering is beyond the scope of the federal courts.

[Duke of York]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

Letting that go to SCOTUS with the current lineup is all downside. 

State Courts are separate institutions and the feds can only really get involved if its federal law and a transfer is requested on those grounds. Cases including those from the past 3 years in NM, NH, NC, KY, NY, UT, PA, OH, and potentially here all involve the interpretation of the state constitution. The State Supreme Court is the highest arbiter for these situations of determining if the State has provisions against gerrymandering and only the state, since Roberts has said partisan gerrymandering is beyond the scope of the federal courts.

if that's the case why did the court in Alabama hear the the redistricting case?

[Oryxslayer]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

Letting that go to SCOTUS with the current lineup is all downside. 

State Courts are separate institutions and the feds can only really get involved if its federal law and a transfer is requested on those grounds. Cases including those from the past 3 years in NM, NH, NC, KY, NY, UT, PA, OH, and potentially here all involve the interpretation of the state constitution. The State Supreme Court is the highest arbiter for these situations of determining if the State has provisions against gerrymandering and only the state, since Roberts has said partisan gerrymandering is beyond the scope of the federal courts.

if that's the case why did the court in Alabama hear the the redistricting case?

What part do you want basic information about here? The part where federal law, VRA cases, and racial gerrymandering is not partisan gerrymandering and is a well established arena for federal courts? The part where challenging these laws has to go through the federal system and not the state system? The part where Milligan, as well as many subsequent suits do not even approach the question of partisanship, since they are legally looking at things through a demographical and racial lens?

[Gass3268]

!!!

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1738302101300695197?s=46

[Gass3268]

They will not however invalidate the 2022 results.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1738302758929723434?s=46

[Pollster]

They will not however invalidate the 2022 results.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1738302758929723434?s=46

This aspect could actually go to SCOTUS as electing only half of the Senate under the new map and leaving the other half elected under the old would result in some people being double-represented and others having none.

[Nyvin]

They will not however invalidate the 2022 results.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1738302758929723434?s=46

This aspect could actually go to SCOTUS as electing only half of the Senate under the new map and leaving the other half elected under the old would result in some people being double-represented and others having none.

That's already the case anyway between even numbered districts elected in 2020 under old maps, and odd numbered districts elected in 2022 under new maps.  That happens literally every year that ends with 2.

In 2022 the discrepancy was smaller since the new map was a least change map, but there were changes made none the less.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dark Janet is queen!

[Stockdale for Veep]

[Duke of York]

Dark Brandon: Once more the Dems will rule Wisconsin and we shall have peace.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1738319103704580594

[Devils30]

Next step should be challenging the congressional map in time for 2024. With NY, WI, AL-2 and probably LA-5, the Dems could easily come out on top despite NC.

[Epaminondas]

Please repost your best de-rigged WI leg maps.