Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

I think this the 3rd big issue that Democrats are taking to the Wisconsin Supreme Court (after the legislative maps and abortion). Still need challenges against Act 10, voter ID, right to work, the congressional map, etc.

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1713908221293797419?s=46

[Duke of York]

Apparently Vos qualified his statement by saying that impeachment is still on the table if she votes to overturn the maps, which (unless I'm misunderstanding Wisconsin's judicial process) feels like it would be a massive own-goal since it would put the legislature's Republicans in the position of having to vote on it with the knowledge that their districts will be redrawn regardless.

I don't see what the point of this is.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1714027269532889382?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need TX, PA, MI and WI to get 270 for proportion voting and Johnson is gone in 28 to Sara Rodriguez this takes the sting out of Barnes def last yr

[Gass3268]

Senate Republicans tell the court lol jk!

https://twitter.com/larrysandler/status/1714115548470988863?s=46

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1718004428869960071?s=46

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1719360369938846141?s=20

Evers is pissed!

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1719361981419794574?s=20

[Gass3268]

Redistricting hearing is next Tuesday!

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1725516807451160904?s=46

[politicallefty]

What's the contiguity argument? Was it something like water or touch-point contiguity?

[Oryxslayer]

What's the contiguity argument? Was it something like water or touch-point contiguity?

The main reason is that there are a lot of places where precincts are not contiguous cause of city lines, but unlike in most states, WI maintains the unity of those precincts. So you have some areas where a a handful of homes are isolated, but in most states the precincts would be cut. But its more a justification for a goal obviously.

Like these examples:

[Gass3268]

Really interesting here:

Democrats originally argued that existing Republican maps, which were adopted by the court's former conservative majority in 2022, are an example of extreme partisan gerrymandering because they give the GOP an unfair advantage in State Assembly and State Senate races, stripping Democrats of political power in the process.

But the court's four liberal justices decided not to take up the gerrymandering question directly. Instead, they focused on two others:

Do the current maps violate the Wisconsin Constitution's contiguity requirements for voting districts?
Did the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to enact Republican-drawn maps violate the Constitution's separation of powers clause?

Link to the article

Going almost exclusively with the contiguity argument, which is very clear in the Wisconsin state constitution, might be brilliant strategic move here.

[wbrocks67]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

The congressional mal is unlikely to change since it was already approved by the courts in the past. Most of the focus is the state legislature.

[Nyvin]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

The congressional map is contiguous, the legislative maps aren't.   Contiguity is the main crux the legislative maps court case is based on.   The same approach won't work in the congressional map.

Plus redrawing the congressional map doesn't gain the Democrats as much so they're probably not putting much effort into it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

The continuity issue doesn't apply to the congressional map, so it's not challengable under those grounds.

[John Dule]

For years I've fooled around with redrawing the Wisconsin district map on various websites, and I always was annoyed that the precincts were so choppy and ugly. Funny that this little detail is going to wind up being the fulcrum of a case that likely gets the GOP map thrown out.

[Dan the Roman]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

The congressional mal is unlikely to change since it was already approved by the courts in the past. Most of the focus is the state legislature.

It was also Evers' map and 3/4 Ds voted for it.

[Gass3268]

Some big Wisconsin Democrats/Dane County news this morning:
https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1730220657286303787?s=46
https://twitter.com/upnorthnewswi/status/1730235339552248234?s=46

[Gass3268]

Scott Walker’s legacy in the mud! Hopefully right to work is next!

https://twitter.com/sbauerap/status/1730331554524582346?s=46

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Scott Walker’s legacy in the mud! Hopefully right to work is next!

https://twitter.com/sbauerap/status/1730331554524582346?s=46

OSR is going to be deeply triggered.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Scott Walker’s legacy in the mud! Hopefully right to work is next!

You hate to see it.

[CityofSinners]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

[Duke of York]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

No they were not close to doing that. Roberts would never go for that.

[Pollster]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

There are plenty of good reasons they shouldn't challenge the Congressional map this cycle. None of these are one of them.

1) A one-seat gain (it would probably be two) is 20% of the way to the House majority.

2) This is loser mentality. Power begets power - not using it when you have it is silly. There is no such thing as a permanent majority (the Republicans' dominance here in the 2010's meeting a relatively sudden end in the 2020's is a perfect encapsulation of this) and the best thing you can do is always to maximize your interests when the numbers are in your favor.

3) The Supreme Court will not do this because it would harm Republicans just as much if not more than Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.

No they were not close to doing that. Roberts would never go for that.

They don't need Roberts right now.

If you believe this is a uniquely conservative court relative to the long run average (reasonable IMO), it could make sense to wait a bit.