Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1623669376791584769?s=46&t=WyeORuF3...

[Gass3268]

But a check of cases handled by Dorow through the Wisconsin Court System‘s CCAP website shows she was working as a prosecuting attorney for the Waukesha District Attorney (perhaps not as an assistant DA) from 1996 to 2000.

After eight years in the office, she took a job, no doubt at a higher salary, at a private law firm run by Matthew Huppertz, where she worked for nearly six years before becoming a partner in the Huppertz and Dorow firm and then worked two more years as a partner for the firm.

Dorow’s experience in handling cases as a prosecutor, and her insider’s knowledge of how the Waukesha DA’s office worked, would have made her an attractive candidate to join Huppertz’s office, someone he could sell to prospective clients. Even today, the Huppertz website notes the firm “has extensive experience defending clients throughout Southeastern Wisconsin accused of sex offenses such as:

-Rape/Sexual Assault
-Statutory Rape
-Date Rape
-Child Sex Crimes including Child Molestation
-Internet Sex Crimes including child pornography and solicitation of minors for sex”

CCAP shows Dorow defended such clients, including those charged with domestic battery, harassment, sexual assault, using a computer to facilitate a sex crime, sex with a child age 16 or older and third-degree sexual assault. Some of those clients are registered sex offenders.

There is a lot here that you could attack Dorow on.

Source: Urban Milwaukee

[Gass3268]

Judge Janet Protasiewicz has a ton of money to spend.

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1624873988169031683?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Judge Janet Protasiewicz has a ton of money to spend.

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1624873988169031683?s=20

Damn, wow. I'm feeling oddly very good about this race as of right now.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The WI R party is Doomed without Johnson and in 28 he is done in a Prez yr

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

This actually gets at a rather interesting point: will the coalitions shift? Past recent Wisconsin Court elections have featured a different permutation of the traditional state political arrangement than usual.  As noted, dem turnout in Milwaukee is usually bad, but that's not the only feature.  WOW and inner Milwaukee suburbs voted for conservatives are rates above what they give to partisan Republicans.  The outlying rural counties and smaller metros are more volatile than when selecting partisans. And Dane punched way above its weight relative to the state,  effectively putting Milwaukee on its back.

So one wonders if the circumstances of this election will change things. Obviously more is riding on this court election than any other in almost a decade,  so one could imagine comparatively higher turnout.  One could also imagine coalitions more resembling the last gubernatorial election than past court elections,  for the same reason.  Then there remains the abortion X factor, and whether the electorate will behave like the past contests. 

So yeah, obviously the GOP will end up pumping money into the race like the Dems are now. But Tuesday will give us some idea of what the is the exact field of play, and whether Dem expectations of a an eventual victory are matched by actual evidence 

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

This actually gets at a rather interesting point: will the coalitions shift? Past recent Wisconsin Court elections have featured a different permutation of the traditional state political arrangement than usual.  As noted, dem turnout in Milwaukee is usually bad, but that's not the only feature.  WOW and inner Milwaukee suburbs voted for conservatives are rates above what they give to partisan Republicans.  The outlying rural counties and smaller metros are more volatile than when selecting partisans. And Dane punched way above its weight relative to the state,  effectively putting Milwaukee on its back.

So one wonders if the circumstances of this election will change things. Obviously more is riding on this court election than any other in almost a decade,  so one could imagine comparatively higher turnout.  One could also imagine coalitions more resembling the last gubernatorial election than past court elections,  for the same reason.  Then there remains the abortion X factor, and whether the electorate will behave like the past contests. 

So yeah, obviously the GOP will end up pumping money into the race like the Dems are now. But Tuesday will give us some idea of what the is the exact field of play, and whether Dem expectations of a an eventual victory are matched by actual evidence 

Yeah, it’s definitely a big wild card. I made a post on this issue in this thread back in December about this very dynamic. I personally think some folks who live in WOW (especially in places like Mequon and Brookfield) are basically soft Democrats now in elections. Evers won several precincts in Menominee Falls, Brookfield, and Mequon, so the ground is shifting. WOW voters turn out in huge numbers, so if they really do shift to support Judge Janet then there won’t be enough rural voters to counteract that.

[Pollster]

Underrated factor here (especially in an officially nonpartisan race) is the last name "Protasiewicz" having a non-negligible effect with lower-information voters who are first and second generation Europeans - of which there are many in the upper midwest.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

Ben Wikler has done an amazing since becoming the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. IMO they've gone from one of the weakest state parties to one of the strongest. Whoever the liberal nominee is (99% sure its going to be Protasiewicz) is going to be flushed with money. The conservative is going to have to be bailed out by Richard/Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

This, basically. My fear is that WI Dems’ coalition relies very heavily on Madison and Milwaukee, and to be honest, Milwaukee doesn’t show up for SCOWIS races. I mean, MKE turnout is beyond pathetic. The Right-Wing financiers will absolutely dump in huge amounts of money to get Kelly or Dorrow elected.

This actually gets at a rather interesting point: will the coalitions shift? Past recent Wisconsin Court elections have featured a different permutation of the traditional state political arrangement than usual.  As noted, dem turnout in Milwaukee is usually bad, but that's not the only feature.  WOW and inner Milwaukee suburbs voted for conservatives are rates above what they give to partisan Republicans.  The outlying rural counties and smaller metros are more volatile than when selecting partisans. And Dane punched way above its weight relative to the state,  effectively putting Milwaukee on its back.

So one wonders if the circumstances of this election will change things. Obviously more is riding on this court election than any other in almost a decade,  so one could imagine comparatively higher turnout.  One could also imagine coalitions more resembling the last gubernatorial election than past court elections,  for the same reason.  Then there remains the abortion X factor, and whether the electorate will behave like the past contests. 

So yeah, obviously the GOP will end up pumping money into the race like the Dems are now. But Tuesday will give us some idea of what the is the exact field of play, and whether Dem expectations of a an eventual victory are matched by actual evidence 

Lot of Trumpy voters, particularly in Southwest Wisconsin, don't turnout for these types of elections, while liberals in this region typically do.

[Gass3268]

Underrated factor here (especially in an officially nonpartisan race) is the last name "Protasiewicz" having a non-negligible effect with lower-information voters who are first and second generation Europeans - of which there are many in the upper midwest.

I've thought of this too, Portage County is where we should be looking on election day if this did indeed occur.

[Gass3268]

Another point that could help the liberal candidate, Madison's mayoral election is also occurring on the same day as the Supreme Court race. Just one more thing that could help drive folks to the polls.

[Ferguson97]

I'd be very surprised if the Democrats lost this race. They have a fundraising and enthusiasm advantage right now, and there's evidence that Democrats have an advantage in special elections in this era.

[Gass3268]

Kelly will get beaten down on this if he's the conservative nominee.

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1626674253331324935?s=20

[Nyvin]

If Janel Brandtjen wins the R primary for SD-8, then Democrats actually have a really good chance at flipping the seat.

Her and Dan Kelly being the two nominees is probably ideal for Democrats,  they're both big time election deniers which is a really big turnoff for independents.

[walleye26]

First Dems need to win a spot on Tuesday-I’m confident they will, but after the 2019 SCOWIS race, I’m not taking any of these low-turnout races for granted.

[walleye26]

I also looked at turnout from 2018’s SCOWIS Feb primary (the last one in which multiple “liberal” candidates ran) and Dane County’s Feb turnout was 25.5%, or 77,532 voters. Madison’s city clerk tweeted yesterday that 15,604 people have already voted (just the city of Madison) but that 23,000 have requested absentees. The 15K number means 8.1% of Madison’s voters have turned out already, but they also have early in person voting today and tomorrow as well. Also, some ballots will come into them via mail as well. I would estimate that somewhere around 20,000 Madisonians will have already voted by the time Tuesday comes around, which is roughly 11% of turnout. We will see what turnout there is on Election Day.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1626598079150555142?cxt=HHwWjIDQwbeV65...

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1626789674688647168?cxt=HHwWgMC4weGlwp...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A nasty snowstorm is set to hit Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin (mostly rural and Republican) this week....mostly after Tuesday but it's starting Tuesday afternoon.

[Duke of York]

A nasty snowstorm is set to hit Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin (mostly rural and Republican) this week....mostly after Tuesday but it's starting Tuesday afternoon.

in 2018 Rebecca Dallet gained Democrats a seat. A major snowstorm blanked most of the state but left Madison and Milwaukee with minimal snow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A nasty snowstorm is set to hit Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin (mostly rural and Republican) this week....mostly after Tuesday but it's starting Tuesday afternoon.

in 2018 Rebecca Dallet gained Democrats a seat. A major snowstorm blanked most of the state but left Madison and Milwaukee with minimal snow.

This is just the first round granted and it's not most of the state, but it will start before polls close in rural western Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Should note for folks planning on following results coming in tomorrow, they aren't overly predictive. In 2018 the two conservatives together drastically outperformed the liberal only in the primary only for the liberal to win by over 100,000 votes in the general.

[Dead Parrot]

Should note for folks planning on following results coming in tomorrow, they aren't overly predictive. In 2018 the two conservatives together drastically outperformed the liberal only in the primary only for the liberal to win by over 100,000 votes in the general.

Didn't the 2018 primary have two liberals (Dallet and Burns) facing off against one conservative (Screnock)? IIRC the fact that the libs combined for over 53% of the primary vote was a major sign that Dallet was favored in the general. It seems like 2020 is a better example of the primary not necessarily being predictive, since Kelly got a bare majority of the February vote but lost the general by double digits.