Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY  (Read 165834 times)
Duke of York
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« Reply #1725 on: December 03, 2022, 12:14:12 PM »
Quote from: Pollster on December 03, 2022, 10:29:41 AM
Quote from: Duke of York on December 02, 2022, 06:12:29 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 02, 2022, 04:39:49 PM
Quote from: Pollster on December 02, 2022, 04:19:25 PM

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.
Whose at higher risk?
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Pollster
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« Reply #1726 on: December 03, 2022, 12:29:38 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on December 03, 2022, 12:14:12 PM
Quote from: Pollster on December 03, 2022, 10:29:41 AM
Quote from: Duke of York on December 02, 2022, 06:12:29 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 02, 2022, 04:39:49 PM
Quote from: Pollster on December 02, 2022, 04:19:25 PM

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.
Whose at higher risk?

Not sure I worded that last post clearly - assuming both parties are competing for roughly half of the vote because this is Wisconsin, a third liberal getting in makes it easier for the two conservatives to advance with a quarter of the vote each (or vice versa).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1727 on: December 05, 2022, 10:31:42 AM »
This is how Democrats flip this seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1728 on: December 05, 2022, 10:32:55 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on December 05, 2022, 10:31:42 AM
This is how Democrats flip this seat.




Seat is still quite polarized and Dems likely need an extreme turnout differential to win.
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #1729 on: December 07, 2022, 10:30:08 AM »
TIL that AG Josh Kaul is part-Indian. Is he the first Asian-American ever to hold statewide office in Wisconsin?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1730 on: December 07, 2022, 10:31:26 AM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on December 07, 2022, 10:30:08 AM
TIL that AG Josh Kaul is part-Indian. Is he the first Asian-American ever to hold statewide office in Wisconsin?

Hmm I thought he was Jewish.
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #1731 on: December 07, 2022, 10:37:23 AM »
« Edited: December 07, 2022, 10:41:29 AM by Atlas Force »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on December 07, 2022, 10:31:26 AM
Quote from: Atlas Force on December 07, 2022, 10:30:08 AM
TIL that AG Josh Kaul is part-Indian. Is he the first Asian-American ever to hold statewide office in Wisconsin?

Hmm I thought he was Jewish.

I believe his mother is Jewish, he’s Indian on his father’s side.

Edit: nvm I was mistaken, his mother’s Wikipedia page doesn’t say anything about her being Jewish.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #1732 on: December 07, 2022, 11:38:37 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on December 05, 2022, 10:32:55 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on December 05, 2022, 10:31:42 AM
This is how Democrats flip this seat.




Seat is still quite polarized and Dems likely need an extreme turnout differential to win.

Good thing specials appear to favor Dems now, then! Smiley

*except in Texas, but that's just Texas being Texas
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1733 on: December 07, 2022, 01:41:32 PM »
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walleye26
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« Reply #1734 on: December 18, 2022, 12:18:38 AM »
One underrated factor at play in the SCOWIS race is that traditionally the type of people who show up for the spring races are highly educated. In the past, the WOW counties just destroyed Dems in the court races. Dane County turns out for them, but Milwaukee doesn’t. This meant conservatives typically won.

However, I’m curious to see if some of the traditional WOW educated republicans see abortion as a particularly salient issue and my vote for Judge Janet in the primary. If a lot of Ozaukee/Waukesha voters vote for a liberal in the top two race, the GOP could be shut out. There just isn’t enough of a population to make up for it in the rurals (in the February primary, that is).
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President Paul
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« Reply #1735 on: December 21, 2022, 05:12:51 PM »
I think Daniel Kelly will win.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1736 on: January 04, 2023, 11:51:30 AM »


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Gass3268
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« Reply #1737 on: January 18, 2023, 11:44:14 AM »
Protasiewicz raised almost as much as the other three candidates combined.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1738 on: January 20, 2023, 09:35:53 AM »
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1739 on: January 20, 2023, 10:04:16 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on January 20, 2023, 09:35:53 AM


her and Mitchell are the two liberal candidates correct?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1740 on: January 20, 2023, 10:21:26 AM »
Quote from: Duke of York on January 20, 2023, 10:04:16 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on January 20, 2023, 09:35:53 AM


her and Mitchell are the two liberal candidates correct?

Correct, but i don't see Mitchell having much of a chance. If I had to predict, this is how I would guess the primary ends up.

1. Protasiewicz (L)
2. Dorow (C)
3. Kelly (C)
4. Mitchell (L)
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leecannon
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« Reply #1741 on: January 20, 2023, 07:11:55 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on January 20, 2023, 10:21:26 AM
Quote from: Duke of York on January 20, 2023, 10:04:16 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on January 20, 2023, 09:35:53 AM


her and Mitchell are the two liberal candidates correct?

Correct, but i don't see Mitchell having much of a chance. If I had to predict, this is how I would guess the primary ends up.

1. Protasiewicz (L)
2. Dorow (C)
3. Kelly (C)
4. Mitchell (L)

From the endorsements shown on Wiki Mitchell seems to the most left candidate
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1742 on: January 24, 2023, 12:16:57 PM »
Some gross stuff out of Brookfield. They must be terrified that it will become another Wauwatosa.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1743 on: January 24, 2023, 12:28:56 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on January 24, 2023, 12:16:57 PM
Some gross stuff out of Brookfield. They must be terrified that it will become another Wauwatosa.



Note all 3 are still well over 70% White by VAP. The two derided towns just vote Democratic, Wauwatosa by a 30% margin. White suburbanites increasingly favoring the Dems is what changed, not an influx of Milwaukee minorities...which is something Brookfield Republicans should be more interested in: trump only won by 8.5%.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #1744 on: January 25, 2023, 12:04:55 PM »
Elderly Crookfield residents don’t want “poor” people in there. However they are having a lot of white, married, liberal millennials moving in which terrifies them just as much.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1745 on: January 25, 2023, 02:22:04 PM »
Quote from: MasterJedi on January 25, 2023, 12:04:55 PM
Elderly Crookfield residents don’t want “poor” people in there. However they are having a lot of white, married, liberal millennials moving in which terrifies them just as much.

In a lot of conservative minds poor and liberal are roughly synonymous as they are both considered personal failings
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Pollster
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« Reply #1746 on: January 29, 2023, 09:03:02 AM »
Am seeing this picking up a lot of steam in Wisconsin circles.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1747 on: January 29, 2023, 01:43:27 PM »
Quote from: Pollster on January 29, 2023, 09:03:02 AM
Am seeing this picking up a lot of steam in Wisconsin circles.



Lots of folks think this is a hit piece against Dorow, but there are also claims that she knew what her son was doing, which then I think its legit.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #1748 on: January 29, 2023, 06:46:20 PM »
Feels more like a hit piece. Michael Dorow is an adult and has not even been charged with anything. There is no connection to his mother.

It's a good thing if his parents pay for a attorney. Everybody deserves a good legal representation.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1749 on: February 02, 2023, 12:57:39 PM »


In keeping with this threads title I guess.
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