Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[lfromnj]

I didn't realize CD1 was this tight...Evers just lost it by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1595231265015619584

It was redrawn FWIW, lost all of Waukesha and got a few inner suburbs of Milwaukee. Overall its probably a pretty good bellwether for statewide albiet shifted slightly right.

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

Yep, all 3 of these should be contenders in the future. PA-10, especially. Daniels lost by only 8 with zero help from the national party. She only did 5% worse than Shapiro in the seat (he lost by ~3), which is extremely impressive.

[lfromnj]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

Yep, all 3 of these should be contenders in the future. PA-10, especially. Daniels lost by only 8 with zero help from the national party. She only did 5% worse than Shapiro in the seat (he lost by ~3), which is extremely impressive.

Theres no way Shapiro lost this seat.  He probably won it by close to double digits atleast. Are you talking about Fetterman?

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

Yep, all 3 of these should be contenders in the future. PA-10, especially. Daniels lost by only 8 with zero help from the national party. She only did 5% worse than Shapiro in the seat (he lost by ~3), which is extremely impressive.

Theres no way Shapiro lost this seat.  He probably won it by close to double digits atleast. Are you talking about Fetterman?

Actually you're right, I believe I was thinking of PA-16. My Bad!

[ProgressiveModerate]

I didn't realize CD1 was this tight...Evers just lost it by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1595231265015619584

It was redrawn FWIW, lost all of Waukesha and got a few inner suburbs of Milwaukee. Overall its probably a pretty good bellwether for statewide albiet shifted slightly right.

Overall, WI-01 seems to be shifting more right than WI as a whole, at least using election results from last decade. It doesn't take in *that* much of the Milwaukee suburbs and the ones it does take in are slightly more "WWC" types than WOW.

It's also still unclear if Dems 2020 issues with Kenosha caused them a temporarily hit and it'll go back to being more D in a few cycles of if Ds are fundamentally on the decline there.

Steil def can't afford to fall asleep at the wheel though.

[Gass3268]

I didn't realize CD1 was this tight...Evers just lost it by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1595231265015619584

It was redrawn FWIW, lost all of Waukesha and got a few inner suburbs of Milwaukee. Overall its probably a pretty good bellwether for statewide albiet shifted slightly right.

Overall, WI-01 seems to be shifting more right than WI as a whole, at least using election results from last decade. It doesn't take in *that* much of the Milwaukee suburbs and the ones it does take in are slightly more "WWC" types than WOW.

It's also still unclear if Dems 2020 issues with Kenosha caused them a temporarily hit and it'll go back to being more D in a few cycles of if Ds are fundamentally on the decline there.

Steil def can't afford to fall asleep at the wheel though.

While the issues from 2020 is still a problem for Democrats in Kenosha, probably a bigger issue longterm is that the county is starting to draw folks who still work in the Chicagoland area, but don't want to pay Illinois taxes. There is even a Metra station in Kenosha. These voters typically lean Republican.

[lfromnj]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

The Judge who was in charge of the Waukesha Parade trial is considering to run for the state supreme court.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

[lfromnj]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Having a liberal candidate from outside of Dane/Milwaukee is probably a good thing.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Having a liberal candidate from outside of Dane/Milwaukee is probably a good thing.

Do you think the judge who presided over the Kyle Rittenhouse trial qualifies as liberal?

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Having a liberal candidate from outside of Dane/Milwaukee is probably a good thing.

Do you think the judge who presided over the Kyle Rittenhouse trial qualifies as liberal?

No.

I had know idea that was the person who was being referred to in the earlier comment.

I do think a liberal from the rural western part of the state would be the best option to maximize odds of winning.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Hell no, I'd rather lose than win with him. Besides, he's pretty old, isn't he?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MarkBellingShow/status/1597639906142334978

WOW radio host "confirms" Dorow
}is running.

[Pollster]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

[Wiz in Wis]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

[Pollster]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

[wbrocks67]

Stupid question but did Barnes completely step down as Lt Gov or does he get a second term since Evers won?

[Roll Roons]

Stupid question but did Barnes completely step down as Lt Gov or does he get a second term since Evers won?

No, Evers will have a new LG.

[Xing]

Stupid question but did Barnes completely step down as Lt Gov or does he get a second term since Evers won?

I believe Sara Rodriguez will be the new LG.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

[Duke of York]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

[Pollster]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.