Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

It's essentially a three way race in Robin Vos' district.

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1589625629569581056?s=20&t=s6Vo9Fg...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's essentially a three way race in Robin Vos' district.

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1589625629569581056?s=20&t=s6Vo9Fg...

What did Robin Vos do to make Trump hate him so much?

[bagelman]

I assume Vos refused to personally stage a coup against Gov. Evers and award the state's electoral votes to Donald JOHN Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I assume Vos refused to personally stage a coup against Gov. Evers and award the state's electoral votes to Donald JOHN Trump.

Yep.  Vos refused to pursue a post-election effort to decertify Biden's win in the state (a correct decision, as there is absolutely no legal mechanism to do so), and this angered Trump.

[walleye26]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

[walleye26]

It's essentially a three way race in Robin Vos' district.

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1589625629569581056?s=20&t=s6Vo9Fg...

There’s no Democrat running in Vos’ district?

[wbrocks67]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

Yeah, I feel like it may be 2018 all over again with Evers pulling out a win. Michels just seems like a really bland candidate, who has said some really dumb stuff.

[walleye26]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

Yeah, I feel like it may be 2018 all over again with Evers pulling out a win. Michels just seems like a really bland candidate, who has said some really dumb stuff.

I know a few moderate Republicans who are voting Evers because they are angry at Vos for the 2020 election investigation and they know Evers wouldn’t be able to do anything. Anecdotally, a few Republicans I know don’t trust Michels. They voted Trump in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm still convinced Michels will win. Evers has been slightly underwater for most of his term; granted, it's not really his fault that he hasn't accomplished anything, but it certainly doesn't help his approval ratings.

While we're on the subject of the Wisconsin governor's race, I think that had Scott Walker gotten 29,228 more votes in 2018, he could be Governor until the day he dies if he wanted to. Wisconsin's not getting any bluer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still convinced Michels will win. Evers has been slightly underwater for most of his term; granted, it's not really his fault that he hasn't accomplished anything, but it certainly doesn't help his approval ratings.

While we're on the subject of the Wisconsin governor's race, I think that had Scott Walker gotten 29,228 more votes in 2018, he could be Governor until the day he dies if he wanted to. Wisconsin's not getting any bluer.

I think there's a good chance Trump would've tried to do a primary challenge against Walker anyways cause Walker would prolly have accepted the results of the 2020 election.

I personally think Michaels is the favorite as well. Evers path to victory relies on disproportionate turnout out of Dane County

[redjohn]

Dane county projected ~85% turnout earlier today. Higher than 2016, but lower than the previous two cycles.

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1590055365252907009

[walleye26]

Evers at 39% of the vote in Waukesha County with 69% reporting….he got 33% against Walker in 2018

[Koharu]

Dane: Turnout Percentage 78.1% with 96.7% of Precincts Reporting
https://elections.countyofdane.com/Election-Result/145

My fav:
Dane Co Ref #3 (Repeal abortion ban)
Yes 85.4% 247,035
No 14.6%    42,113
96.7% of Precincts Reporting

[Gass3268]

Next year's Supreme Court election has now become one of the most important elections ever!

[Xing]

Quite something that Evers pulled this off, given how few here thought that he would, and that it wasn't even that close, no less!

[Koharu]

[edited out bad math]

It looks like SoS may be recounted (because we absolutely need another, sigh). I wonder if Loudenbeck will let it go since there's no chance of the SoS getting increased duties (esp. election related) now.

La Follette: 1,265,559
Loudenbeck: 1,258,516
(Libertarian & Green candidates got about 95k votes between them)

[wbrocks67]

Quite something that Evers pulled this off, given how few here thought that he would, and that it wasn't even that close, no less!

Me too. I expected Evers to pull it out by 2018 margins if he did indeed won. +4 in Wisconsin in a Biden midterm is an incredible result for him. And thank god, b/c Michels is a ghoul.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes wasn't that good of a nominee if it was 2024 he would of been the perfect nominee but it was a midterm Sara Goldwitz should of been the nominee, I am glad I didn't donate to him

Barnes was talked up the most by Ds and was a mediocre candidate , just like John Edwards in 2004 was a mediocre Veep nominee

[Oryxslayer]

Next year's Supreme Court election has now become one of the most important elections ever!

Okay everyone, would you take the over or the under on if the amount of cash spent on that race is the most ever spent on a court race, or any race in Wisconsin?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1592982048670887936

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1593758089039200256

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1593758089039200256

The state Supreme Court allowing the Republican gerrymander of the state senate is what made the difference here.  Had the more neutral Evers map been chosen, Dems would have picked up the suburban Milwaukee seat (SD-05) to offset their loss up north to stay at 12 seats.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1593758089039200256

The state Supreme Court allowing the Republican gerrymander of the state senate is what made the difference here.  Had the more neutral Evers map been chosen, Dems would have picked up the suburban Milwaukee seat (SD-05) to offset their loss up north to stay at 12 seats.

The real weird part of the map that hurts Democrats now is the Green Bay senate district, it definitely acts as a gerrymander now although Democrats held it up through an incumbent all the way to 2020. I think it was in a similar format in the 2002 map as well.


Also Ever's map in Milwaukee was pretty weird as it got that 5th D seat in Milwaukee by creating a 7th black majority seat and putting it in the senate district. I would argue that a better map would have a better seat for Democrats in the driftless region. Obviously they have SD 32 which is the La Crosse seat but SD 17 is Trump +10. Should definitely be closer to a 50/50 seat IMO. The current map pushes the 3 Dane "packs"* westwards and uses the German rurals between WOW and Madison to crack Eastern Dane while using the 3 Dane packs to scoop up the dem leaning parts of counties surrounding Dane. It also uses more than necessary of the Rock county seat to push Dane westwards.


Another area is Racine/Kenosha . A fair map would obviously give each county its own R tilting seat while the current map packs the 2 cities together and gives the rural/suburban area a safe R seat.

* Obviously Dane will have 3 packs in any fair maps without any cracking.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1593758089039200256

The state Supreme Court allowing the Republican gerrymander of the state senate is what made the difference here.  Had the more neutral Evers map been chosen, Dems would have picked up the suburban Milwaukee seat (SD-05) to offset their loss up north to stay at 12 seats.

The real weird part of the map that hurts Democrats now is the Green Bay senate district, it definitely acts as a gerrymander now although Democrats held it up through an incumbent all the way to 2020. I think it was in a similar format in the 2002 map as well.


Also Ever's map in Milwaukee was pretty weird as it got that 5th D seat in Milwaukee by creating a 7th black majority seat and putting it in the senate district. I would argue that a better map would have a better seat for Democrats in the driftless region. Obviously they have SD 32 which is the La Crosse seat but SD 17 is Trump +10. Should definitely be closer to a 50/50 seat IMO. The current map pushes the 3 Dane "packs"* westwards and uses the German rurals between WOW and Madison to crack Eastern Dane while using the 3 Dane packs to scoop up the dem leaning parts of counties surrounding Dane. It also uses more than necessary of the Rock county seat to push Dane westwards.


Another area is Racine/Kenosha . A fair map would obviously give each county its own R tilting seat while the current map packs the 2 cities together and gives the rural/suburban area a safe R seat.

* Obviously Dane will have 3 packs in any fair maps without any cracking.

I've looked at the history of Wisconsin state legislature and that weird split of the Green Bay area goes all the way back to the aftermath of Baker v. Carr and for whatever reason they decided to split Brown County between 1, 2 and 30.

A fair map would probably now include 3.5 seats in Dane County. Where they decided to take that extra .5 would be important.

Kenosha and Racine counties used to anchor their own districts until the 2011 gerrymander. Funny enough the Racine based seat would probably be better for Democrats today than the Kenosha one. Also, funny enough, both seats could be Republican in the Senate, but be made of 2 Democratic seats and 1 Republican seat in the Assembly.

[prag_prog]

I didn't realize CD1 was this tight...Evers just lost it by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1595231265015619584