Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

And so the pivot begins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the record it seems like it was only briefly taken down cause it's back up now.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

That's pretty funny actually

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

And so the pivot begins.

Is this the fabled moderate pivot that was supposed to befall Mastriano, Lake, Oz, Vance, Walker…

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

I think that's a good summation. Much like with Biden, a Democratic victory in Wisconsin now is going to require over-performances in Madison, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties if rural free-fall can't be offset. It's doable, but difficult.

[wbrocks67]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

I think that's a good summation. Much like with Biden, a Democratic victory in Wisconsin now is going to require over-performances in Madison, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties if rural free-fall can't be offset. It's doable, but difficult.

A good comparison imo is Ohio where previous Dem wins relied on outright winning many rural areas and getting insane margins out of smaller communities like Lorain and Youngstown. Dem gains in Cinci and Columbus has been pretty impressive and they've held up fine in the immediate Cleveland area, but really don't have anything to show for it.

I would also say Iowa cause it's regionally similar but Ohio doesn't really have any significant D cities anyways in the way WI or OH do.

[wbrocks67]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

Last Marquette in June had him +3. Previous one before that had him +5

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539668170700894210

[ProgressiveModerate]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

Last Marquette in June had him +3. Previous one before that had him +5

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539668170700894210

I think people tend to assume he's unpopular because he only won narrowly in 2018 while in states with similar topline partisanship Dems won Gov by a lot like MI and PA. The dynamics in each one of these races was unique.

[Xing]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

An incumbent Democratic Wisconsin governor hasn't run for reelection in a Democratic midterm since 1978, and that was an ascended LG. If you're looking for a governor that was actually elected, it was... 1962? Not a lot of historical precedence to back up your assertion. Evers being an incumbent changes the dynamics here.

Fair enough, though Evers has never been especially popular, so I’m not sure how much his incumbency really helps.

[Utah Neolib]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

[Skill and Chance]

This is one of those elections that could proceed the end of WOW as a cohesive political unit. Washington County really appears to be going in a different direction from Ozaukee and Waukesha.

Washington is now way Trumpier than the other 2 and Ozaukee could plausibly be voting Dem soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

Phil Murphy was the first Democratic Governor of New Jersey to be re-elected since 1978.

[Xing]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

Phil Murphy was the first Democratic Governor of New Jersey to be re-elected since 1978.

True, but New Jersey is way more Democratic than Wisconsin.

[Skill and Chance]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

[wbrocks67]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

How is he an outsider? He ran for political races in WI as far back as 2004, so he's no stranger to politics.

Not sure how these comments are moderate:

-Claims 2020 election was rigged
-Said “everything was on the table”, including decertifying results
-Wants to dismantle the bipartisan commission that runs WI elections
-Favors 1849 abortion ban
-Calls for ‘public private partnership’ to counsel young woman with unexpected pregnancies
-Him and his wife are ‘pro life Christians’ who will ‘protect the unborn’

Just because an R candidate isnt a MTG or Lauren Boebert doesn't mean they are 'moderate', especially in a swing state like WI.

Election denying and abortion bans alone are extraordinarily extreme for a swing state.

[Gass3268]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

How is he an outsider? He ran for political races in WI as far back as 2004, so he's no stranger to politics.

Not sure how these comments are moderate:

-Claims 2020 election was rigged
-Said “everything was on the table”, including decertifying results
-Wants to dismantle the bipartisan commission that runs WI elections
-Favors 1849 abortion ban
-Calls for ‘public private partnership’ to counsel young woman with unexpected pregnancies
-Him and his wife are ‘pro life Christians’ who will ‘protect the unborn’

Just because an R candidate isnt a MTG or Lauren Boebert doesn't mean they are 'moderate', especially in a swing state like WI.

Election denying and abortion bans alone are extraordinarily extreme for a swing state.

Has been living in Connecticut for about the past decade too.

[Gass3268]

About time

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1558151703119134723?s=20&t=KUcmro7egN3eJ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

About time

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1558151703119134723?s=20&t=KUcmro7egN3eJ...

Vos should reimburse the taxpayers of Wisconsin for the money that was spent on this farcical investigation.

[wbrocks67]

WI GOP constantly giving things for Evers to run on

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1558541651592859649

[Senator Incitatus]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

You don’t understand—he was nominated by the Republican Party in 2022 and is therefore a horrible candidate. QED.