Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

There are three Dems left in rural districts.  Two in the north and one outside Lacrosse.  Then there is a suburban Milwaukee seat that was made more Republicans that Dems will probably lose.  To actually get 66 would require winning the Steven’s Point district that Biden only won by six points, which I guess is certainly possible in this environment.

Shifts in Stevebs Pojr have been pretty brutal and Dems could also very well lose something else.

[wbrocks67]

I had no idea Michels was actually endorsed by Trump here. Will be interesting to see if that gets him over the finish line.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I had no idea Michels was actually endorsed by Trump here. Will be interesting to see if that gets him over the finish line.

He will win, as we have seen in MD and IL the Dem leaning Indies are voting for the weaker nominee hopefully it happens in AZ, we can't afford Lake as the nominee

That's why the polls are off because either party can vote in opposing party nomination process

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fitting the thread title:

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1552393193299202048

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, though I think this is the one race where Kleefisch isn't *that* much more sane than Michels.

[walleye26]

I’ve noticed that I see more Kleefisch signs in the suburbs and more Michels signs in the rurals…this may be a continuing of the “WOW counties Republican” vs the rest of the state (and usually the candidate that wins WOW usually wins, since the rural parts of the state don’t have enough to overcome the sheer numbers from the burbs).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1554262342485032960
https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1554264139379376134

[Gass3268]

Trump endorsed Vos' primary opponent. Vos is an ass, but it would be really bad if he lost to this guy.

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1554596637393260544?s=20&t=ukZdg8FnCd0Oc...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1554610074248777730

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1555290869712015362

[2016]

Former Speaker of the U. S. House Paul Ryan, Former RNC Chair Priebus, Former Governor Scott Walker and current Senator Ron Johnson all indicated that they would not rally or campaign with Tim Michels in the fall should he win the GOP Nomination for Governor tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

Former Speaker of the U. S. House Paul Ryan, Former RNC Chair Priebus, Former Governor Scott Walker and current Senator Ron Johnson all indicated that they would not rally or campaign with Tim Michels in the fall should he win the GOP Nomination for Governor tomorrow.

I don't believe them.

[Gass3268]

Important thing to remember for tonight's primary.

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1557012448997265408?s=20&t=pZD1E4yrv8...

[Sir Mohamed]

Former Speaker of the U. S. House Paul Ryan, Former RNC Chair Priebus, Former Governor Scott Walker and current Senator Ron Johnson all indicated that they would not rally or campaign with Tim Michels in the fall should he win the GOP Nomination for Governor tomorrow.

That won't move a single vote in November. Just won't. These endorsements from has-beens mean nothing.

[redjohn]

I think Michels takes it away by a few points. We shall see.

[Gass3268]

I think Michels takes it away by a few points. We shall see.

He's going to want his outstate margin to be what he's getting in La Crosse/Winnebago, not Wood.

[SnowLabrador]

I could be completely wrong, but my hunch is that Michels needed bigger margins out of the first few counties and is underperforming his benchmarks right now. Gun to my head, Kleefisch will be the nominee.

[Gass3268]

Those are awful early margins for Kleefisch in the Milwaukee metro.

[SnowLabrador]

Kleefisch is flopping around like a clay fish. She's tanking on PredictIt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557179879665422337

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we don't need Kleefisch

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557181937529356288?s=20&t=zpuy589sa-b...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[The Dowager Mod]

Darn, I was hoping Palin Lite would win.

[Devils30]

Looks like Vos is gonna survive the primary but wow its close.