Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[SnowLabrador]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

[wbrocks67]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

Is he? Kleefisch seems more extreme than Michels, but I could be wrong.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

Is he? Kleefisch seems more extreme than Michels, but I could be wrong.

Moderate doenst always mean better. Crayfish has better optics and would likely be stronger in wow given her ties

[Mayor U.N. Trustable]

It's quite ironic that Michels support will be in the western part of the state when this was what happened in 2004.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1547945468507721728

Other than the fact its Hooters is there anything more to this story than a mislabelm

[Mayor U.N. Trustable]

Straight out of the Bush yearshttps://mobile.twitter.com/TomEDewey1948/status/1546703089113174018https://mobile.twitter.com/TomEDewey1948/status/1546702035223023621

[Mayor U.N. Trustable]

As for Kleefischhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JULIEsList1/status/1539953461910986753

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, she hasn't said I'd she would certify Biden of WI 10 EC votes just like Kari Lake, that's gonna hurt both of them

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1547945468507721728

lol there is a gas station kind of close to that Hooters, but not close enough that one could confuse one for the other. There's a (former) Hardee's and road in between. Ramthun is just... ick. So glad to see he's getting very little support.

I think Kleefisch would be stronger in the GE based on name recognition alone. However, there's a lot of advertisement fodder in her changing her views to be more "Trumpian" over the past year. There's a video of an interview from September 2021 of her simply stating she believes Biden won Wisconsin, but now she's joined in the "it was rigged" stuff. That's just one super accessible issue where she's flipped to appeal to Trump's fans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As for Kleefischhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JULIEsList1/status/1539953461910986753

Tbf though, basically all American politicians have become more liberal on the issue of gay marriage over the past 15 years.

Nonetheless, its cool she says she will not end birth control or gay marriage, but she can’t really say she’d end them either just cause of public opinion. She also isn’t particularly assertive in how she phrases it which doesn’t make me confident if it came down to it she’d hold true to her words.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kleefisch has not said like Kari Lake if they would certify Biden as the winner of the 10 EC votes, D's certainly have VA and GA to fall back on if AZ and WI fall but it's critical not just saying you are for contraceptive, that's why she is losing 47/43 to Evers

[goin bezerk]

Not good news for Michelshttps://twitter.com/Robin_Vos_Stan/status/1549125459119669249

[lfromnj]

As for Kleefischhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JULIEsList1/status/1539953461910986753

Tbf though, basically all American politicians have become more liberal on the issue of gay marriage over the past 15 years.

Nonetheless, its cool she says she will not end birth control or gay marriage, but she can’t really say she’d end them either just cause of public opinion. She also isn’t particularly assertive in how she phrases it which doesn’t make me confident if it came down to it she’d hold true to her words.

I mean Youngkin explicitly said he doesn't support it and still won . He even did this during the GE. Meanwhile she's in the primary  where it mostly hurts to support gay marriage(mostly because most GOPers who may even be fine with it are mostly apathetic.)

[SnowLabrador]

Not good news for Michelshttps://twitter.com/Robin_Vos_Stan/status/1549125459119669249

Not good news for Evers either. He cannot defeat Kleefisch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not good news for Michelshttps://twitter.com/Robin_Vos_Stan/status/1549125459119669249

Not good news for Evers either. He cannot defeat Kleefisch.

He is leading in MQK poll 47/43 and Barnes is leading Johnson 46/44, MQK poll is the most accurate, LOL WE STILL HAVE VOTE HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU PEOPLE NOTHING IS FINAL UNTIL VOTES ARE FINALIZED , and it's VBM it's not gonna come in quick, if you a paid pundit which you are not you can't tell anyone whom is gonna win, you keep doing that


We are gonna win the 303 map and we are competetive in Red states

[goin bezerk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1549780481100500992

[MasterJedi]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

[SnowLabrador]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

[MasterJedi]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

Tossup but would lean Barnes. He’ll help boost black turnout but his history will hurt in most other areas of the state. Will probably have the worst margins in rural areas too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

Tossup but would lean Barnes. He’ll help boost black turnout but his history will hurt in most other areas of the state. Will probably have the worst margins in rural areas too.

Obama won WI in 2008/12 users tend to  forget that and Barnes won as LT Gov with Evers to beat Walker

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

Tossup but would lean Barnes. He’ll help boost black turnout but his history will hurt in most other areas of the state. Will probably have the worst margins in rural areas too.

Wisconsin tends to have very polarized primaries on both sides.

On the GOP side it’s usually greater Milwaukee/east side of the state, which tends to be more suburban vs rural areas on the western side .

On the Dem side it’s even more confusing cause it’s basically heavily African American Milwaukee vs hyper-liberal mainly white Madison vs rural/mid-sized community WI, all of which are pretty equal in their power in a Dem primary. In most states you tend to have a clear group or city that dominates Dem primaries but not really in Wisconsin

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

[Mr.Phips]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

[Mr.Phips]

Also as a Dem, I really think Dems strategy in Wisconsin should be the win the court cause realistically they are not going to be winning the state government and there’s a very good chance the GOP can hold legsitaltive supermajorities in jornal years thanks to how Dems self-pack. I would much rather have an R trifecta in WI with a liberal court than an R supermajority legislature, a D governor, and a conservative court.

In MI and PA however, Rs shouldn’t win supermajorities except in amazing years and Dems have good chances of getting trifectas in state government. Imo those are better investments. Same goes for AZ. I’m not saying Dems should just give up on WI but I don’t think it’s worth all of this to fight an ultimately losing battle for state government control.

Supermajorities are pretty much impossible for Republicans in MI and PA.  The assembly is also close to impossible in Wisconsin, although they are almost certain to get there in the senate this year.

A supermajority in the state assembly is def very possible for WI Rs, especially as the last few "rural" Dems are knocked off.

There are three Dems left in rural districts.  Two in the north and one outside Lacrosse.  Then there is a suburban Milwaukee seat that was made more Republicans that Dems will probably lose.  To actually get 66 would require winning the Steven’s Point district that Biden only won by six points, which I guess is certainly possible in this environment.