Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1511559593964494854

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1511559593964494854

Yeah I saw about that. Fantastic.

Also in Brown County they elected their Board of Supervisors. Only two incumbents lost, and while the elections are non-partisan both seemed ideologically polarized, one was actually a member of a right-wing group associated with militias who lost to a liberal, the other seems to be a liberal who lost to a conservative. However said conservative actually was the old incumbent who held the seat for almost 20 years before losing to that liberal in a fluke upset in 2020. So sort of a wash overall.

[philly09]

Despite the relatively low turnout, a damn good night for Democrats across the state. Even in reliably red Waukesha, the former GOP mayor Shawn Reilly was re-elected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering his young age and that Milwaukee mayors tend to stick around forever, I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson is still mayor 30 years from now. He's only the fourth of mayor of Milwaukee elected since 1960.

[MasterJedi]

Donovan is going to flee the city to Greenfield and going to find some dive bar to drink himself to death in. Stay out of the bathrooms there though as he’s a predator.

I know the drinking part, but fill me in on the bathroom part?

He was arrested back in the early 90s peeping into a UWM bathroom stall through a hole. He admitted to going there numerous times to watch men and jerk it. So he’s the “law and order” candidate of course.

[MasterJedi]

Considering his young age and that Milwaukee mayors tend to stick around forever, I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson is still mayor 30 years from now. He's only the fourth of mayor of Milwaukee elected since 1960.

Yes, it’s probably his for as long as he wants it and he could set the length in office record if he wants.

[ElectionsGuy]

Despite the relatively low turnout, a damn good night for Democrats across the state. Even in reliably red Waukesha, the former GOP mayor Shawn Reilly was re-elected.

There's no good reason to believe this. Kenosha County (often a bellwether) just elected their first R county executive ever. Many school board members got defeated by more right-wing challenges. You can always pick out exceptions in local "non-partisan" races because there are so many to choose from, but it absolutely has no overall bearing on what's going to happen in November anyway. R's suffered in the court races in 2020 and Trump made it the closest presidential election since 2004 in the state anyway. Hagedorn won in 2018 before Walker lost and Baldwin easily won.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1511559593964494854

Corrupt Dems just rigged another election!!1!

[Politician]

Despite the relatively low turnout, a damn good night for Democrats across the state. Even in reliably red Waukesha, the former GOP mayor Shawn Reilly was re-elected.

There's no good reason to believe this. Kenosha County (often a bellwether) just elected their first R county executive ever. Many school board members got defeated by more right-wing challenges. You can always pick out exceptions in local "non-partisan" races because there are so many to choose from, but it absolutely has no overall bearing on what's going to happen in November anyway. R's suffered in the court races in 2020 and Trump made it the closest presidential election since 2004 in the state anyway. Hagedorn won in 2018 before Walker lost and Baldwin easily won.

They're Atlas Dems, what do you expect? They prefer to live with their heads buried in the sand.

These results were definitely not good for Democrats.

[walleye26]

Despite the relatively low turnout, a damn good night for Democrats across the state. Even in reliably red Waukesha, the former GOP mayor Shawn Reilly was re-elected.

There's no good reason to believe this. Kenosha County (often a bellwether) just elected their first R county executive ever. Many school board members got defeated by more right-wing challenges. You can always pick out exceptions in local "non-partisan" races because there are so many to choose from, but it absolutely has no overall bearing on what's going to happen in November anyway. R's suffered in the court races in 2020 and Trump made it the closest presidential election since 2004 in the state anyway. Hagedorn won in 2018 before Walker lost and Baldwin easily won.

They're Atlas Dems, what do you expect? They prefer to live with their heads buried in the sand.

These results were definitely not good for Democrats.

Yeah, I agree with both of you. It wasn’t a good night for Democratic-aligned candidates. In places like Waukesha, more moderate board members lost to conservative challengers, and many other school boards had more conservative challengers win. A lot of school districts in the northern half of the state (and some rural areas) BADLY lost their funding referendums. In Stratford (near Marshfield) their referendum lost 70-30. Medford (Taylor county) rejected their referendum, as did Merrill, Rosendale-Brandon (western Fond du Lac Co), Gillette, and Oconto Falls all lost their referendums.

[Chips]

Can both sides be right? Both parties saw success across the state Tuesday. I guess I'd say Republicans were a tad more victorious overall though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The real primary is August 2nd not last Tuesday

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can both sides be right? Both parties saw success across the state Tuesday. I guess I'd say Republicans were a tad more victorious overall though.

Yes.  I saw some comments from Wisconsin political journalists on Twitter that noted both sides had some results to feel good about, but that statewide it was pretty much a draw or very slightly better for Republicans.

[Sub Jero]

Lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinMNicholson/status/1512484842289909765

[Drew]

A cool development from a suburb just outside of Milwaukee.  The tiebreaking vote was a single provisional ballot.

https://twitter.com/seanrlowe/status/1512558452912136195?s=21&t=gRuW9kamnLZF...

[lfromnj]

State house maps will be 64 Trump seats in the state house and 22 in the state senate.   The 66th Seat for the GOP is still Biden +7 so Ever's will still maintain a veto as long as he wins and Democrats don't completely mess up.

R's are moderately favored to get a supermajority in the state senate. One rural D is retiring in a Trump +10(Walker +1) seat in the NW so that should be Lean to  Likely R, while the 2 most vulnerable R seats is 1 Trump +2 seat in Appleton where the incumbent R senator won by 7 points in 2018 in a similar seat and one Biden +1 seat that straddles the Waukesha Milwaukee border that was moved from Biden +9 to Biden +0.5. (Walker +14) The R state senator won by 3 in the previous seat. It still is vulnerable for the future if trends continue but it is very much Likely to go R for 2022. Lastly there is a vulnerable D senator in a Trump +3 seat that was Evers +3 in 2018

Biggest change from Evers map is that suburban Milwaukee seat going from Biden +18(Evers drew 7 black majority districts and one of them got placed here) to Biden +1.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/sbauerap/status/1514966558073921538?s=21&t=VffLDXMSw4la6...

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/sbauerap/status/1516099713858252803?s=21&t=X_ZZSbFjn1D0o...

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mschlapp/status/1508851501585911811

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every has a 50% Approvals it's gonna be very difficult for Rs to win this race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer, Evers and Shapiro, Polis and SISOLAK are all getting reelected with 3 percent unemployment just like SUNUNU, Abbott, DeSantis and DeWine with 3 percent unemployment are gonna get reelected

We lost VA in 2021 not 22 when our Federal candidates will be on the ballot in 22 in VA 21 just our state candidates were in the ballot and TMac lost narrowly Spanberger district

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1516594341820735492

Kids in the Milwaukee public schools finally got a choice of masking for the first time in two years... For a day, before they decided to reverse it back today because of rising cases.

Great job guys.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a Sen and Gov poll here

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1516594341820735492

Kids in the Milwaukee public schools finally got a choice of masking for the first time in two years... For a day, before they decided to reverse it back today because of rising cases.

Great job guys.

I saw an interview segment on the news this evening in which the new Mayor of Milwaukee justified this decision, claiming that we may be done with the virus, but the virus "isn't done with us", a statement which I've heard many others make. It certainly is a frustrating move, and I doubt this will help the Democrats in Wisconsin, just like the renewal of the Philadelphia mask mandate will probably hurt them in Pennsylvania.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1516594341820735492

Kids in the Milwaukee public schools finally got a choice of masking for the first time in two years... For a day, before they decided to reverse it back today because of rising cases.

Great job guys.

I saw an interview segment on the news this evening in which the new Mayor of Milwaukee justified this decision, claiming that we may be done with the virus, but the virus "isn't done with us", a statement which I've heard many others make. It certainly is a frustrating move, and I doubt this will help the Democrats in Wisconsin, just like the renewal of the Philadelphia mask mandate will probably hurt them in Pennsylvania.

As a Democrat, stuff like this makes me very upset. While I don’t think masking children is the evil some Republicans make it out to be, it should be lifted at this point, and the overcaution for really no good reason is a bad look. It makes them look incompetent and people question if we can ever return to normal. Dems should stop focusing on wedge issues like masks which ultimately play in to Republicans hands, that is over, and both the science and American people are not on our side on it right now.