Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Figueira]

Why is everyone convinced that Evers is going to lose?

[Suburbia]

People are convinced Evers will lose because 2022 is looking like a red wave, Wisconsin is a swing state now that elects Republican governors handily (Thompson, Walker)

Wisconsin Democrats sat on their asses from 2006-2010 while the WIGOP was in the lab assembling a plan for power.

[Minnesota Mike]

Why is everyone convinced that Evers is going to lose?

Because to believe otherwise would contradict the "a huge red wave is inevitable"  theory that has gripped this board. Never mind looking at races individually or that there has been almost no polling on specific races, all Democrats in competitive races will lose because midterms I guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are convinced Evers will lose because 2022 is looking like a red wave, Wisconsin is a swing state now that elects Republican governors handily (Thompson, Walker)

Wisconsin Democrats sat on their asses from 2006-2010 while the WIGOP was in the lab assembling a plan for power.

Lol Evers has a 51 percent Approvals, he won't lose

[MasterJedi]

Republicans are getting hammered right now because:

1. Vos and Republicans are refusing to legalize even medical marijuana.
2. Vos and Republicans are dumping millions into Gableman's sham election investigation. He won't stop and just reported that the legislature should overturn the election again.

[Figueira]

Why is everyone convinced that Evers is going to lose?

Because to believe otherwise would contradict the "a huge red wave is inevitable"  theory that has gripped this board. Never mind looking at races individually or that there has been almost no polling on specific races, all Democrats in competitive races will lose because midterms I guess.

It's entirely possible that there is a huge red wave and Evers still wins.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I doubt Evers will win. He's not especially popular and in this red wave environment, you need to be visibly popular to win, not just not especially unpopular.

[Figueira]

I doubt Evers will win. He's not especially popular and in this red wave environment, you need to be visibly popular to win, not just not especially unpopular.

What does "visibly popular" even mean? Governors win re-election more often than not, even when the environment isn't great for their party. Evers certainly could be an exception, but I don't see any reason to think it's the more likely outcome, given his relative popularity. I'd call it Tilt D at this point. Granted, I could be missing something Wisconsin-specific that's going on here.

[wbrocks67]

I doubt Evers will win. He's not especially popular and in this red wave environment, you need to be visibly popular to win, not just not especially unpopular.

I'd say a +9 approval for him right now is a pretty big deal, especially when the WIGOP is imploding b/c of their obsession with 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's nothing new with the Forum WI is the tipping pt state and Rs just like with Scott Walker in 2018 thinks it's Safe R this is nothing new

[ElectionsGuy]

District 2 Court of Appeals: Evers appointed Lori Kornblum vs conservative backed Maria Lazar

In 2020, Lisa Neubauer (Hagedorn's opponent in 2018) won the district 54-46 with the concurrence of the Democratic Primary and the win of liberal Jill Korofsky over conservative Dan Kelly on the Supreme Court. Can Kornblum repeat the same feat? We'll see on April 5th.



2020: Trump +16.9
2018: Walker +22.0, Vukmir +11.1
2016: Trump +19.3, Johnson +26.0

I doubt Evers will win. He's not especially popular and in this red wave environment, you need to be visibly popular to win, not just not especially unpopular.

What does "visibly popular" even mean? Governors win re-election more often than not, even when the environment isn't great for their party. Evers certainly could be an exception, but I don't see any reason to think it's the more likely outcome, given his relative popularity. I'd call it Tilt D at this point. Granted, I could be missing something Wisconsin-specific that's going on here.

I don't know what "relative poplurality" means exactly but Walker lost with a 47% approval rating. Last Morning Consult poll had Evers at 45%. And you know how reliable a morning consult poll is.

[walleye26]

Tuesday is Election Day. The biggest race of note is probably MKE’s mayoral race. Acting mayor Cavalier Johnson is running against former Alderman Bob Donovan.

Several judgeships are also up.

Personally, I am going to be focused on a lot of school board races. In places like Waukesha, the WISGOP is strongly supporting right-leaning school board challengers. In Wausau and its suburbs, there’s also some strongly conservative challengers running, as well as all over the state. We’ll see.

[Duke of York]

How likely is Johnson to win the mayor election today? I have heard some talk an upset is possible.

[MasterJedi]

How likely is Johnson to win the mayor election today? I have heard some talk an upset is possible.

I expect Johnson to beat Bathroom Bob Donovan by about 40%. Second failure so he can go back to Greenfield and drink himself to death.

[Unelectable Bystander]

How likely is Johnson to win the mayor election today? I have heard some talk an upset is possible.

Pretty unlikely. He’s not very popular in MKE. Also weird that he’s even allowed to run for mayor while serving in the senate

[MasterJedi]

How likely is Johnson to win the mayor election today? I have heard some talk an upset is possible.

Pretty unlikely. He’s not very popular in MKE. Also weird that he’s even allowed to run for mayor while serving in the senate

You’re confused, wrong Johnson.

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1511518876470812676?s=21&t=POsiTUtgi...

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1511520626825207813?s=21&t=POsiTUtgi...

[Drew]

Donovan’s performance vs. 2016.

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1511531421256626177?s=21&t=POsiTUtgizi...

[MasterJedi]

Donovan is going to flee the city to Greenfield and going to find some dive bar to drink himself to death in. Stay out of the bathrooms there though as he’s a predator.

[walleye26]

Donovan is going to flee the city to Greenfield and going to find some dive bar to drink himself to death in. Stay out of the bathrooms there though as he’s a predator.

I know the drinking part, but fill me in on the bathroom part?

[walleye26]

Also in Waukesha, the GOP flipped school board seats. Two moderate school board members (Deets and Baumgart) lost their seats to more right-wing, GOP-sponsored candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is gonna lose and cost Rs running for Gov for voting against KBJ everyone thinks Barnes isn't that good but Obama endorsed him for Lt Gov thats how he won

[philly09]

A bit a draw in purple Kenosha County, as Lori Kornblum wins the county for Court Of Appeals(but loses statewide) but GOP Samantha Kerkman wins the county for County Exec.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1511548628472635396

[Minnesota Mike]

In Eau Claire 3 moderate school board members held off conservative challengers.

https://www.wqow.com/news/politics/eau-claire-school-board-voters-choose-nordin-johnson-and-farrar/article_98af172e-b529-11ec-af19-b38e2e9b2e53.html