State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[smoltchanov]

Good for Democrats, that they have clear frontrunner in SD-33. Otherwise - race could easily go into R_R run-off... And in SD-1 Democrats must root for Kiley now...

[smoltchanov]

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

[smoltchanov]

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

That too. But most likely it will still stay Republican.

[smoltchanov]

Dahle and Kiley in run-off. Leans Kiley if Democrats will not do dumb thing......

[smoltchanov]

Waiting with interest results in Louisiana's HD-18. Because, IMHO - this district is one of the few "atypical" districts in the whole country: district really suited and willing to go for a rather conservative (in real, not modern, where Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative", sense of this word) Democrat. Previous Democratic representative was moderate conservative (again - in real sense of these words), and such Democratic candidates are the best here. It's similar in some way to some other "backwater districts", still existing here and there. The best example for me remains Florida's Liberty county: absolutely rural, with 70+% Democratic registration, electing (IIRC) Democrats only for local offices, and, at the same time - 19,75% for HRC, 23.34% - for Bill Nelson, and 19,65% for Andrew Gillum. HD-18 has substantially more Blacks, and still went for "local liberal" Mary Landrieu (51.28%) in 2014, but -  strongly rejected HRC 2 years later..

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1112205430623797248



Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 

Sure. Adams ran as typical southern populist: solid conservative on most social issues (100% pro-life, for example), but - more moderate on economy. So it was only natural for Democrats to support HIM in run-off. But- in addition to Democratic support he got supported by his Republican predecessor in this seat as well (though he was a Republican, he was, essentially, of the same type as Adams, and frequently quarreled with more "pure" members of his party).

[smoltchanov]

It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.

Me too. He ran as more centrist candidate compared with AuCoin, but still - rather conservative. And, as i said above, support from his Republican predecessor was an important element of his campaign. Most likely he will stay Indie. Less likely - will join Republicans (though they will not be happy, that he beat their "official" candidate). Least likely - joins Democrats

[smoltchanov]

Final results from CA’s 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290
Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...

[smoltchanov]

Well, Florida's HD-7 is one more of "atypical dystricts". It's frequently called "the last Dixie district in Florida" (and one of the last - in the whole nation: very rural, mostly white, Democratic (but conservative) on very local level (especially in such counties as Liberty, where all local offices are held by Democrats, IIRC...), but - very Republican higher up (less, then 30% HRC in 2016), and so on). The last Democrats elected from district predecessor (Robert Trammell until 1994, and Jamie Westbrook (who ran later as Democrat, Republican and Indie) in 1996) were at least moderate conservatives (in real, not modern, sense of these words)..... Liberals or even moderates have no chances in this district now, and Democrats have no "real conservatives" in legislature since at least 1998-2000, so - it will surely stay Republican in general election...

[smoltchanov]

The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..

[smoltchanov]

LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.

Amazon, probably, pays more....

[smoltchanov]

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?

[smoltchanov]

Democrats probably decided to be idiots and sit SD-1 election out completely. Well, they are likely to have a right-wing nutjob Dahle representing them..

[smoltchanov]

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).

One more confirmation of the fact, that continuing ideologisation and polarisation of American politics makes it more and more idiotic with every passig year.... Reasonably sure, that 2020 will be even worse...

[smoltchanov]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

[smoltchanov]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

When party candidate doubles his party Presidential candidate's percentages in his/her race - it's remarkable. At least - for me.

[smoltchanov]

Republicans hold both FL-07 and FL-38. Result in FL-38:

Randy Maggard REP 9,615 55.58%

Kelly Smith DEM 7,684 44.42%

may be considered rather good for Democrats despite loss, result in HD-07:

Jason Shoaf REP 11,604 71.3%

Ryan Terrell DEM 4,670 28.7%

- surely not, as Democratic candidate managed to underperform even HRC in this rural, ancestrally Democratic, but solidly conservative district. Probably - he simply doesn't fit it....

Excellent paper on HD-07 and it's peculiar politics is here:

https://mcimaps.com/hd7-2019-special-election-the-last-of-floridas-conservative-democratic-districts/

In some cases it's ridiculous: very rural Liberty county, with about 70% Democratic registration and all-Democratic for county offices, went almost 4-1 for Republican candidate (and almost equally divided by registration Lafayette, which is majority-Democratic on county level: 7-1). Democrats continue to crater in rural South. They are lucky, that South became less rural of late.

[smoltchanov]

The first post impeachment Special did not end well.

Rusty Grills   Republican   3,344   85.24%
Michael Smith   Democratic   504   12.85%
Max Smith   Independent   39   0.99%
Ronnie Henley   Independent   21   0.54%
Billy M Jones   Independent   15   0.38%

Democrats seems to be dead as dodo in this ancestrally Democratic area..

[smoltchanov]

Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%
Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..

[smoltchanov]

Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%
Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..

True. But it’s a special election, so either a candidate has a campaign and pulls the voters in, or doesn’t. If the Democrat is a Some Guy with no campaign and the Republicans bring out their voters, this is the result.

Here i agree...

[smoltchanov]

It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

[smoltchanov]

It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

Yeah, but the problem for the Republicans is that rural America is shrinking while suburban and urban America is growing and turning bluer. Demographics is going to hit the GOP like a freight train in the next two decades and I find it hard to imagine the party surviving in its current form.

Probably. We will see.

[smoltchanov]

The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky

Naturally. Democratic label is toxic in most rural areas, especially - in the South.

[smoltchanov]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

[smoltchanov]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.

+1