State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Spectator]

Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CamilaOrtiTV/status/1403190491378642949

Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.

Whoever said that didn’t do their research. His seat is heavily red at 57-41 Trump.

[Spectator]

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.

Freudian slip?

[Spectator]

Jen Kiggans’ election to Congress will trigger a special election in her old blue leaning state senate district in Virginia Beach. Democrat Virginia Beach city councilman and former football player Aaron Rouse has already announced and raised over $100k and looks like the early frontrunner.

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/virginia/virginia-senate-needs-special-election-fill-remainder-jen-kiggans-seat/291-4073077b-0e1d-42f7-9b53-77aebbe6f91e

The seat was Biden +9 but Youngkin +4. Funny enough it seems like it voted for Luria in the VA-02 race since the seat is a couple points bluer than VA Beach as a whole and Luria tied in Virginia Beach.

[Spectator]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

[Spectator]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

[Spectator]

What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.

Lean D. Democrats seem to be taking it seriously.

[Spectator]

Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1612625559351164928

VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

[Spectator]

Luria overwhelming won 4/5 of the remaining election day precincts. Rouse has this.

[Spectator]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Minority turnout is always lower than white turnout in off years.

I think Rouse will run against Kiggans at some point, either in 2024 or 2026. He has the ambition for it.

[Spectator]

SD-08 should be a flip based on WI Dems historically overperforming in special elections.