State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay. Here are the upcoming elections:

April 13: New Hampshire House, D-21
April 13: Connecticut House, D-112

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

270towin is actually ahead of the PA SOS in reporting.

In PA-SEN-48, Clements is up 67-27 with ~5,000 votes in. 250,000 people live in the district, so I would think that with state legislature S.E. turnout that this isn't very good.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh my God Chermak might do it...

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61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1394824670482997255?s=20

I love when local newspapers still have some muscle on these issues, gives me hope.

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%

DDHQ has the same numbers saying 74% in. Can't be right, and it seems too close if mail-ins aren't counted yet?

Well I assume the Green voters would normally go Blue, which means its really 56-42. Considering a long-time incumbent only won the general with 61%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Clements still leading by 13.

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What's the amendment again?

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Will it pass?

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The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

Besides knowing Trump he might well get into even worse nonsense in the coming 20 months.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Three specials in Connecticut were held today.

The Dem won CT-100 by 37.7, when Biden won it by only 32.2

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There's a special election in Georgia HD-75 today.  The district is Safe D; the previous occupant, Mike Glanton, won with 89% in 2022 (with slightly different boundaries).  Today's contest features two Democrats, Herman Andrews and Eric Bell II, and one Republican, Della Ashley.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held on April 18.

Update on this - Eric Bell cleared the 50% threshold by over ten points, and the two Ds combined for 89%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Big overperformance in VA SD-09 (Rep. McClellan's vacant district) tonight:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1640878921104121857

I'm becoming pretty confidant about Protasiewicz's chances.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Yeah, this shouldn't even be close

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1658533322405076992

Boyd currently at +53.8