State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

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I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?

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Two special elections for previously Republican-held state senate seats in Massachusetts will be held early next year, likely coinciding with the state’s Democratic Presidential primary on March 3rd. It’s important to note that the state senate sets the dates for these specials, not Gov. Baker (R).

In Don Humason’s (R) Hampden County seat, the only candidate to announce so far is State Rep. John Velis (D). He probably starts out as the overwhelming favorite to flip the seat since any Republican path to victory in this seat runs through running up the score in Westfield, a Trump-won town that Mr. Velis represents in the lower house. The senate seat overall voted for Clinton 52-41. Likely D.

In the Plymouth-Barnstable seat vacated by Vinny DeMacedo, four Democrats are running to replace him and two Republicans. Three of the Democrats have elected office experience whereas none of the Republicans do in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Lean D.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, they will have a 36-4 advantage in the state senate. It is remarkable how pathetic the Massachusetts GOP is outside of their gubernatorial streak: I realized two Democrats sit in Trump seats in the state senate, including one in a 51-41 Trump sear!

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Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

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Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

Rs win by at least 5%

Seems like any easy Dem hold if it’s on the day of the primary

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Man, I thought Dems were screwed because of McGovern though

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Not good

For a Trump +45 county, I think a Dem lead is pretty good myself

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Not good

For a Trump +45 county, I think a Dem lead is pretty good myself

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat.

That’s fair, but we really have no business holding this seat anyway.

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It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

Gee Captain Moderate, when was the last time Republicans have made serious efforts to win Clinton + 40 seat’s? I’ll give you a hint: they don’t try because they know it’s a lost cause. This district was a Trump +40 seat. It was gone this minute Beashear appointed Adkins to his cabinet.

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Disappointing results in PA, though that one district almost always goes GOP downballot.

Looking at the big drops in Democratic turnout in places like Illinois compared to the primaries last week, it seems to me that Democrats are probably much more risk-averse to turning out during this whole pandemic whereas Republican primary turnout from last week to this week wasn’t much affected

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Two Massachusetts special senate elections tomorrow, both formerly held by Republicans. In the 2nd Hampshire and Hampden district, State Rep. John Velis (D) faces off against Navy Reservist John Cain (R). Velis should be favored to flip this 52-41 Clinton seat, and he even represents a part of the district that voted for Trump, Westfield, in the state House.

In the Plymouth and Barnstable district, Falmouth selectwoman Susan Moran (D) faces off against 2018 AG nominee Jay McMahon (R) in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Democrats have struggled to turn out in the COVID era specials so far, so this should be good to watch.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, there will only be 4 Republicans remaining in the 40-member state senate. Of the three senate districts Donald Trump won in the state, Republicans only hold one of them. That should tell you how pathetic the state of the Massachusetts GOP is in, Charlie Baker aside.

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Velis up in the first returns.

https://www.wwlp.com/election-results/

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Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.

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Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.

Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.

He represents the more Republican part of the district that Trump won, so it makes sense that he would overperform the total baseline when you include the bluer parts of the seat, like Holyoke

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Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

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Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?

From Daily Kos, but I can't access the tweet in question at work.

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https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.

Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)

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Velis wins by 29% in the complete results.

I think we can say Plymouth-Barnstable is done too. McMahon only won Bourne (his hometown) by 1476 to 1406. Trump won this town. That's not enough to overcome the baseline.

With that, the Massachusetts GOP is left with four seats in the state senate, tied for their record low point ever.

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The Massachusetts GOP begins and ends with Charlie Baker

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The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

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The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.

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1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

Tarr hasn’t been challenged in a long time, but his district is very blue. The only one of the remaining four that would be safe if Democrats tried is Fattman, but his district isn’t super conservative—Trump only won it by 1%. O’Connor and Tran are very vulnerable this year.

Republicans have kept fumbling the ball on Democrat Anne Gobi’s seat for the past decade. They couldn’t even win it as an open seat in 2014 of all years lol. This is the 51-41 Trump seat based mostly in Worcester

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I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the MA Reps. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Because he wouldn't have lost even if they had seriously contested it.

And the Massachusetts GOP actually lost seats in the legislature as Charlie Baker was winning by 33% speaks for itself.

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BREAKING: BERG WINS WITH JEFFERSON MAIL-INS

https://twitter.com/WLKYMark/status/1277973179571429377

Final results:

Berg (D) - 24771 (57%)
Ferko (R) - 18705 (43%)

That concludes your LimoLiberal election night week coverage.

Democrats have increased their Kentucky State Senate caucus to 10 of 38.

That’s bigger than Beshear’s margin here, correct?

Also, this dramatic change in result is a preview of the chaos that’s going to ensue in November when Trump has a huge lead in all the battlegrounds due to only Election Day votes

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Dems flip a coastal Charleston seat in SC.

https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1293337189175242753?s=20

It's not even close either. One of my best friends is from Folly Beach too, small world.

Pretty good sign for Cunningham, as this was a Trump +3 seat entirely within SC-01.