State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Person Man]

It looks like on the whole, Democrats are holding their own and will probably only narrowly lose by an amount where they can win back in 2024.

[Person Man]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.

Probably but that’s no fun.

So basically an election that looks a lot like a reverse of 2020 where an unpopular incumbent is beaten, but where the victory of Pyrrhic because of a new and underappreciated openness to vote differently within neglected parts of the challenger's base.

In 2020, Biden was supposed to sweep the coastal south and dominate down-ballot only to barely win because a lot of people who Republicans relied on not showing did show up to vote for them. In 2022 and 2024 a lot of people Republicans think will come out in droves for them, come out for Democrats instead. The result will be a weak R congress that either get overturned in a D reelection or is never "complete" until there is a R trifecta.

[Person Man]

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes

Ethanol might be another argument for/against providing subsidies to the small family corn farmers in places such as Iowa.

Poor people can’t afford doctors and taxpayers can’t afford programs for their exasperated medical conditions.

[Person Man]

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?

1) local demographic change or 2) New Hampshire might be the Delaware, Colorado, or Nevada of the 2022 cycle.

[Person Man]

At least if Democrats win tonight, it basically kills Youngkin's legislative agenda.

[Person Man]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

Of course not, if only because we don’t know if there’s going to be a major crisis/clusterfick or scandal

[Person Man]

Republicans staying classy as always.

https://twitter.com/PeteHallPA/status/1658664226490048512

In the words of King Arthur in The Holy Grail “you make me sad”.

[Person Man]

The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.

If that can be kept up, Pennsylvania looks bullish.

[Person Man]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

I tend to think that way. I have the feeling that the medias are trying to make some narrative about how great youngkin is but Virginia is too dem for that.

The narrative is definitely different than 2021.

[Person Man]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?

Still obsessed with the lady in my district.

[Person Man]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

[Person Man]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

The fundamentals always change, but if they don’t get worse, this is reasonable.

[Person Man]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

[Person Man]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.