State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[lfromnj]

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

I am pretty sure in the Orange county commisonor race the late votes Leaned R or it went like Leaning R and only the very last leaned D.

[lfromnj]

Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.

I mean its a rich suburban district. Its of course great for a SE but its not that out of line for this district. It looks Iovino will win but I wonder what the differences will be between the 2012 win and the the 2018 win.

[lfromnj]

The special for NJ SD-01 isn’t til November but appointed Democratic incumbent Bob Andrzejczak is fighting to hold a Trump +9 seat that also went for Kim Guadagno and Bob Hugin, the latter by a landslide. I think he should be able to overcome that given his own impressive electoral performance when he was one of the district’s assemblymen. He’s a Bronze Star disables veteran so that probably has helped him significantly over perform the district’s lean in the past. He’s most likely being groomed by the Norcross machine to run for NJ-02 at some point after Van Drew retires or is defeated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-maintains-registration-edge-in-ld-1/amp/

Its a slightly republican district but for some reason D's have recently held this district at the state level for the past decade. It is Obama trump. Funfact about NJ. The state senate leader for both majority and minority along with the minority state house leaders represent obama Trump district for majority senate leader and Romney Clinton for the minority leaders.

[lfromnj]

https://www.twincities.com/2019/05/04/mn-republican-representative-matt-grossell-arrested-saturday-in-st-paul-for-trespassing/

Minnesota Representative arrested for trespassing. D's did hold this district until 2014 but its gone. Its +30 Trump and the black Kenyan muslim did better than Klobuchar in 2018 in this district(He only lost it by 2 vs 3 points for Klobuchar.)
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1124858430391558144

[lfromnj]

The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

[lfromnj]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

Some Texas GOP rep retired, very unlikely pickup by Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Another California special
https://www.pe.com/2019/10/30/state-sen-jeff-stone-to-resign-after-accepting-department-of-labor-job/
Eastern riverside county
Trump +2, seems Likely R too me IMO.

[lfromnj]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

This is Jeff Van Drew's old seat, further showing that he might face some serious trouble come 2020.

Meh the real problem is the R's flipping NJ2.

[lfromnj]

Chad Mayes also represents a Trump district lol.

[lfromnj]

Btw Wulfric you forgot tonights TN HD 77.

[lfromnj]

https://ctmirror.org/2020/01/21/gops-harry-arora-wins-special-election-in-greenwich/

GOP holds on in Clinton +15 seat suburban seat in CT in Greenwich most SW town.

[lfromnj]

Today is the 28th texas house special

[lfromnj]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

[lfromnj]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.

Yeah which is just pathetic because there is a reason to try in Rhode Island in that you could probably get atleast 1/3 of the legislature in some years. The funniest meme about the RI GOP is that during the legalization of gay marriage all the no votes came from Democrats

[lfromnj]

The Green got the endorsement of the local newspaper FWIW.

[lfromnj]

Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?

State legislature can't flip as state senate isn't up till 2023. Rs would either have to hope for a special  and win it or wait till 2023 with updated maps. Issue is the house map will be updated too, most of the house gerrymander is useless by now with dummymanders in NOVA and the Richmond/Hampton roads being redrawn anyway but I guess Rs still get 2 seats from Albemarle which is triple split after the Charlottesville sink and the Blacksburg gerrymander. Dems do hold the Blacksburg  seat as of now though but it is a key district for an R trifecta. Contractions in NOVA won't help Rs either. There is a bit of a dummymander in areas like PWC where the GOP tried a 4R 1 D map which held as 3 R 2 D till 2017 so you can still carve out reasonably winnable seats for the GOP near Gainesville and in between Manassas and I95 so that could help a bit in that the new seats would be winnable although a new seat would also have to come into Loudoun as well.   Generally 2.5 seats will be added to NOVA  which could theoretically still be winnable for Rs if you draw PWC in a R favorable manner but not incredibly so.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Wqlk_/status/1468400661008203776

Overperform of Trump 2016 as well.

[lfromnj]

By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1600981084031930394?cxt=HHwWtMC-3Yj06...

FL special election . Overall a pretty safe district in Marion County that excludes the black precincts of Ocala.

[lfromnj]

DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.

https://twitter.com/Hawkins4florida/status/1656416512045989889?s=20

I think you mean eastern.