State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Sestak]

So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.


Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0

[Sestak]

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

Ah ok then, definitely go Kiley.
What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R

Ah well, go Kiley then (between the two of them).

Also damn, Dalhe's ahead of Pflueger now.

[Sestak]

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

[Sestak]

85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%

So Gonzalez is basically guaranteed this seat.

[Sestak]

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

[Sestak]

Wow, completely didn’t realize there were specials yesterday. Goddammit Louisiana, you just had to be ahead of the curve on weekend elections.

[Sestak]

So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

[Sestak]

So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court

I meant for State Legs lol. Yeah WI SC and Chicago runoffs are also today, but don't go in this thread.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1113235870444859392

As expected. At least we haven't started off with catastrophe.

[Sestak]

Looking solid so far.

[Sestak]

Where's this vote coming from?

[Sestak]

Team Raja not at all confident about tonight

https://twitter.com/johnwolperscfp/status/1113239254585552896?s=21

Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

[Sestak]

Team Raja not at all confident about tonight

https://twitter.com/johnwolperscfp/status/1113239254585552896?s=21

Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or they’re not confident they’re going to win.

Well, yes - if they were confident they wouldn't need to set expectations. This way they can try to frame a mid single-digit loss as an "overperformance" - doesn't necessarily mean double digit landslide is coming. (Of course it could also be their honest expectation, but no way to be sure).

[Sestak]

Pam Iovino (Democratic)     57.3%   5,400
D Raja (Republican)     42.7%   4,022
41 of 224 (18%) Precincts Reporting, 9,422 Total Votes

[Sestak]

Hmmmm.....

Doraisamy Raja is a politician and the member of Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu. He is from the Communist Party of India(CPI) and he is the National Secretary of the Party since 1994.[1][2][3] [4]

[Sestak]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?

[Sestak]

{snip with quote pyramid}

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.

[Sestak]

Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes

[Sestak]

Looking pretty solid right now.

[Sestak]

I think we have this. D+1.

[Sestak]

Since apparently the last one was locked (and is basically at capacity)

[Sestak]

Anyway DDHQ has finally called the race for Iovino.

[Sestak]

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

[Sestak]

Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the district’s past voting?

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1113263364195663872

That wraps up tonight

What, did all the vote dump at once?