State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is a sign of a close race.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is a sign of a close race.

Hardly. Casey won the seat by 12%, so if this precinct is representative (big if), that would point to a 7 or 8% Iovino win.

Anything less than 12.5% is a close race.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

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Majority of precincts reporting.

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Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

Also, why was the 2 vote win nullified?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.

What a waste then. Unopposed special state legislative election primaries are fully pointless to run and almost invariably going to result in extremely low turnout.

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I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

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TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

Rip. This was a McGovern 1972 County. And a Mondale 1984 County.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It should also be noted that the Dem in this Miami-Dade special, who almost matched Nelson/Gillum 2018 numbers Districtwide, was very much an unserious perennial candidate.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.

The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.