State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Oryxslayer]

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1112205430623797248



Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 

[Oryxslayer]

Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97

I'm fairly confident all the PA stuff today is safe Republican.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.

[Oryxslayer]

Another republican flips with Chad Mayes standing under No Party Preference, defecting from the Assembly GOP. His districts straddles Riverside and San Bernadino counties. It's increasingly clear that you will find better luck as a faction inside the state democratic party than as a GOP politician on the outside.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1237541827848196099

[Oryxslayer]

Dems flip a coastal Charleston seat in SC.

https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1293337189175242753?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts

Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.

Both true. But the reason why everyone obsessed about special elections from 2017-2018 was because Dems were outperforming Clinton everywhere except Connecticut and a few other places, sometimes by massive margins. And it wasn't driven by past results, it was driven by education, suburbanization, and the trend. This regions is one of those culturally smalltown/rural areas, as highlighted by these two results, where the GOP trend is strong, but Dems enjoyed the benefits of local voters. So if we were to follow the playbook of the past few years, its not all that good of a result for the GOP, or Stewart in perticular.

In fact Chaz got burned rather bad betting on localism in 2020, so I wonder why he's still committed to that over the national topline.

[Oryxslayer]

PA-SEN 22

Marty Flynn
DEM
11,084   49.88%

Chris Chermak
GOP
8,608   38.73%

Marlene Sebastianelli
GRE
2,282   10.27%

Nathan Covington
LIB
249   1.12%

4% in, but that Green vote is bizarrely high. Apparently the Scranton Times endorsed them? Why?

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1394824670482997255?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.

Yeah, at the end of the day this is going to be a result with a MOE. The localist nature of the green candidate means you can't just assume everyone is a federal dem, but it also isn't 50-50. I'm sure a precinct analysis post-election which compares her vote to the Dem/Rep vote will give us a clear answer, but that is a detail which will be lost in the hot takes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GianniHillPA/status/1397297289841020930?s=20

We got a breakdown of the vote, including the green share. There was a geographic concentration to her vote, which reflects the localness of her candidacy. It looks like she mainly pulled from the dem corner - or at least the Trump Dem - side of the spectrum. Definitely some Republican support of course, especially when you have a geographic rather than ideological voter base.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, the Dem in the Tennessee race was accused of sexual assualt today and resigned as chair of Hamilton county Democrats. Its in the local news. So don't be surprised if there is a exceptionally strong R overperformance there when compared to past elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I saw this in my twitter feed. Yes this is a Dem trending part of the state, but I suspect the root cause of the result is the Dugger's poisoning local politics with the trial, rightful scandal, and media coverage. Which is why the R primary got at lot more votes then the R now - people wanted him away from their lives.

Also, the other major race of the night, OKC mayor, is a landslide for incumbent David Holt. This in unsurprising given the token nature of the three opposition candidates.  

[Oryxslayer]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Reminder that this election is meaningless, given that the legislature does not sit until after the November vote. Though now there is rumors of a tiny special session for abortion trash laws, but the net impact is still the same.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1592271421971267585?s=20&t=qCeDf_pM-GX...

201 for majority (for some reason).

[Oryxslayer]

What happens if it ties 200-200?

Given that the people in this chamber are paid the equivalent of nothing and few are permeant politicians (what do you expect), probably defections. Not actually that uncommon here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1592993741383815169?s=20&t=aJJ5EijmslLE...

Immediate special election in North Georgia likely - Safe R, Dems didn't run anyone here last week.


One of the recounts in NH has presently resulted in a Tie. One potential outcome if this persists is a special election, which may decide the chamber pending other recounts.


PA Dems presently lead in 112 seats, or a bare majority. However, one Dem died before election day, one is Summer Lee and going to Washington, and one is set to become the new Lt. Gov. All three represent(ed) deep blue east Allegheny seats, so after the inaugural session Reps will have a few weeks with more state reps until the seats are filled.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1593333002062422023?s=20&t=Be6FgXZ3SO7...

Alert for potential special in western MI (Muskegon and northern lakeshore). Won by 5.6%.

[Oryxslayer]

So the NY Dems are moving against recent assembly candidate and presumptive victor in AD-49, Lester Chang. Prior to 2022, Chang was kinda a perennial GOP candidate, running twice for seats that covered lower Manhattan, his prior address. This year he ran for and marginally won a majority-Chinese seat in the Sunset Park/South Brooklyn area versus an Italian Democratic incumbent (note something similar happened in the state senate seat only the ethnicity of the parties candidates are swapped, flipping the results). During the campaign there were accusations that he had not moved to Brooklyn at least 1 year in advance of the vote, as per NY law, so legally could not stand.

Residency requirements are kinda BS, but the electorate clearly believes them important as seen by the recent 90-10 victory for stricter requirements in MD, and they vary by state depending on how important the voters of a specific state or their politicians deem them necessary. So it is in the Assembly's right to refuse to seat Chang and have Hochul call a Special Election, though awkwardly Chang could legally stand for said special and get seated if he wins (hopefully this time vs a Chinese Dem).

[Oryxslayer]

We might have a special election soon in Georgia HD-116:

The new seat is 119. 116 was last decades version. Seats are roughly numbered north-south, so the reapportionment of districts shifted the numbering scheme around even though the seat barely changed.

[Oryxslayer]

Better here I guess?

https://twitter.com/MorganTrau/status/1610363875479916545?s=20&t=TwDSRBT0glj...

D"s + Half of R's elect Jason Stephens over Derek Merrin. More info shortly, but might immediately throw a wrench into any attempt at mid-decade redraws under the current state framework.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1610389655492370435?s=20&t=mJLdhEzbcRc...

Directly related to the 2 soon to be 3 special elections in Allegheny: since D's lack the votes presently to command a majority, they get a good deal to ensure ideal functionality.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently there's additional special elections in Safe R hd24, and Safe D Hd35, but you wouldn't know it from the media coverage.

[Oryxslayer]

The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.

You do know the mail/early aren't yet allocated to precinct because of VA law?

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

Also, reminder that the seat may not be as blue as Biden+10 for 2020, cause of VAs inability at the time to match mail voters to precincts.