State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Bidenworth2020]

Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!

Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

[Bidenworth2020]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     52.3%   146
D Raja (Republican)     47.7%   133
1 of 224 (0%) Precincts Reporting, 279 Total Votes

For reference, Bob Casey won this precinct by 9% in 2018. And this precinct is a bit to the right of the district.

so an underperformance, but not in loser territory.

[Bidenworth2020]

Where's this vote coming from?

[Bidenworth2020]

Team Raja not at all confident about tonight

https://twitter.com/johnwolperscfp/status/1113239254585552896?s=21

Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

wouldn't they do something more public then like releasing a bad internal?

[Bidenworth2020]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

[Bidenworth2020]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

How do you know this? He never specified.

[Bidenworth2020]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?

Honestly? Trying to pass the time as the results continue to come in .

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)

But as you very well know, this was a disproportionate swing.

[Bidenworth2020]

Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.

Woah. This is the first non-troll post I have seen in a while from limo.

[Bidenworth2020]

Pretty much what I expected. If democrats are flipping Cruz seats, even marginal ones, that depend on low propensity Hispanics for a democratic victory as well as a sizable chunk of the white suburban vote, things are really looking horrible for republicans. This result is pretty much in line with what we have seen for the past few months-- slight democratic tilt, but not comparable to the 2017 special elections.

[Bidenworth2020]

Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.

Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.

So far, the results are tracking very very closely to 2016... McMahon leading by less than a point with the two Trump towns in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!

Really great to see you putting out substantive analyses.