State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 133816 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« on: March 30, 2019, 09:56:34 PM »
I hope Roy Adams caucuses with us.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2019, 11:32:54 PM »
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2019, 08:03:32 AM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on April 01, 2019, 10:30:21 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on March 31, 2019, 11:32:54 PM
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.

Good, keep our fingers crossed 🤞
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2019, 08:09:37 PM »
Still a smidge nervous, but we got this guys!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2019, 08:15:11 PM »

Heck yeah!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2019, 01:45:02 AM »
I know you are kidding, but just for any gullible people out there that could be reading this, for the millionth time, Obama is not a muslim.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2019, 02:00:12 PM »
Quote from: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 01:36:37 AM
Quote from: Elliot County Populist on May 22, 2019, 12:52:10 AM
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..

Tbf, these are wealthier suburbs and exurbs getting bluer.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2020, 06:59:20 PM »
Ok Texas HD 148 will be a safe D hold, but I have a feeling the margin will be very underwhelming since it a largely hispanic seat and the republican is hispanic while the dem is not, I will guess around a 58-42 ish dem win
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2020, 08:32:44 PM »
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 08:30:15 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2020, 08:40:59 PM »
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 08:33:30 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on January 28, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 08:30:15 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2020, 09:22:38 PM »
Why is nobody talking about the Wisconsin Supreme Court Primary today?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2020, 06:27:49 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2020, 06:37:46 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »
Quote from: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 02:55:38 PM
Today's Elections:

Last Polls close at 7 ET: KY-67, KY-99
Polls close at 8 ET: PA-190 Results may be at: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

KY 67: https://campbellcountyclerkky.com/february-25-special-election-results/

dems should hold ky 67
Trump may have won it 49-44 but even Stumbo won it by 5-6.

And I think we will also hold ky 99 but we will see

ky 67 had 30 precincts in their 2018 election, and here are some maps
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2020, 06:57:56 PM »
KY 99
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2020, 07:00:15 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2020, 07:00:59 PM »

It is also Redwine's home turf where he has been an education activist for 40 years.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2020, 07:03:51 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2020, 07:06:35 PM »


Not good
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2020, 07:09:36 PM »

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat. Redwine won it by 10ish while Beshear by 20ish and Beshear barely won the seat.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2020, 07:11:04 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2020, 07:11:19 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 25, 2020, 07:10:36 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:09:36 PM

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat.

That’s fair, but we really have no business holding this seat anyway.

Fair enough
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2020, 07:13:12 PM »
No it aint over not a D hold yet, all of Lewis county is out.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2020, 07:16:12 PM »


Projected D win, hold.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2020, 07:18:50 PM »



Slightly better news
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #23 on: February 25, 2020, 07:22:42 PM »
Based on turnout and margins on a model or two I have ran I expect White to net around 1000ish from Lewis, letting him win by 300ish.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #24 on: February 25, 2020, 07:24:13 PM »


It is over.
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