State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[UncleSam]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

[UncleSam]

I wouldn’t say a D underperformance of four points is that bad, but it does indicate that whatever remaining ancestral D strength remained in this area downballot is gone. Doesn’t bode well for WI-3, WI-Sen, anything in IA ever, or even possibly some stuff in MN come 2022.

I don’t think this says much about the state of things outside this region, however, and shouldn’t be extrapolated too much - it’s only a few thousand votes.